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الگوی مدیریت اختلافهای قدرتهای بزرگ در قرن بیستویکم: از موازنۀ قوای مشارکتی تا موازنۀ قوای رقابتی | ||
مطالعات اوراسیای مرکزی | ||
مقاله 8، دوره 16، شماره 1، شهریور 1402، صفحه 173-196 اصل مقاله (617.9 K) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jcep.2023.355928.450133 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
مجید روحی دهبنه* 1؛ حمید رضا رهبری2 | ||
1استادیار گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، رشت، ایران | ||
2کارشناسی علوم سیاسی، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران | ||
چکیده | ||
کنسرت قوا بهدلیل نقشی که در حفظ صلح و دوری از جنگ میان قدرتهای بزرگ اروپایی در قرن نوزدهم داشت، همواره بهعنوان روشی جذاب در حکمرانی جهانی مطرح بوده است. در قرن بیستویکم، بروز برخی از مشکلات و تنش میان قدرتهای بزرگ و بهویژه بحران و جنگ اوکراین در سالهای 2014 و 2022، تغییرهای ساختاری و هنجاری در نظام بینالملل، مشکلات محیط زیستی و مانند آن، موجب شد برخی پژوهشگران دوباره به این روش حکمرانی توجه کنند. در این نوشتار با روش پژوهش کیفی و با کمک نمونهپژوهی، با استفاده از منابع کتابخانهای و همچنین رویکرد نظری موازنۀ قوای رقابتی و مشارکتی هدلی بول و دیدگاه بنجامین میلر، بهدنبال پاسخ این پرسش هستیم که پس از بحران و جنگ اوکراین برای مدیریت تنش و اختلاف در میان قدرتهای بزرگ، میتوان امکانی برای تشکیل کنسرت قوا مانند قرن نوزدهم تصور کرد؟ در پاسخ این فرضیه مطرح میشود که دلایل ساختاری، هنجاری، ایدئولوژیک، شناختی، برداشتها و جهانبینیهای متعارض هرکدام از طرفها و بیتوجهی به حوزۀ نفوذ، امکان اندکی برای موازنۀ قوای مشارکتی(کنسرت قوا) گذاشته است. یافتههای پژوهش نشان میدهد که بعد از تهاجم روسیه به اوکراین در سال 2022، با بازگشت رقابتهای ژئوپلیتیکی و حاکمشدن فضای واقعگرایی، موازنۀ قوای رقابتی، الگوی کنونی حاکم در نظام بینالملل در میان قدرتهای بزرگ و بهویژه در میان روسیه، چین و آمریکا شده است. بر این اساس، امکان تشکیل کنسرت قوای مشارکتی مانند قرن نوزدهم، واقعبینانه بهنظر نمیرسد. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
کنسرت قوا؛ موازنۀقوا؛ نظام بینالملل؛ آمریکا؛ چین؛ روسیه | ||
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