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بهلولی, حمید, جمشیدی, حمید رضا, عابدینی, عاطفه, ابرازه, علی, ربانی خواه, فهیمه. (1400). مدل‌‌سازی مداخلات اثربخش در مدیریت و کنترل ویروس کرونا (SARS-CoV-2) در ایران: رویکردی آینده پژوهانه. , 7(3), 9-35. doi: 10.22059/jppolicy.2021.83364
حمید بهلولی; حمید رضا جمشیدی; عاطفه عابدینی; علی ابرازه; فهیمه ربانی خواه. "مدل‌‌سازی مداخلات اثربخش در مدیریت و کنترل ویروس کرونا (SARS-CoV-2) در ایران: رویکردی آینده پژوهانه". , 7, 3, 1400, 9-35. doi: 10.22059/jppolicy.2021.83364
بهلولی, حمید, جمشیدی, حمید رضا, عابدینی, عاطفه, ابرازه, علی, ربانی خواه, فهیمه. (1400). 'مدل‌‌سازی مداخلات اثربخش در مدیریت و کنترل ویروس کرونا (SARS-CoV-2) در ایران: رویکردی آینده پژوهانه', , 7(3), pp. 9-35. doi: 10.22059/jppolicy.2021.83364
بهلولی, حمید, جمشیدی, حمید رضا, عابدینی, عاطفه, ابرازه, علی, ربانی خواه, فهیمه. مدل‌‌سازی مداخلات اثربخش در مدیریت و کنترل ویروس کرونا (SARS-CoV-2) در ایران: رویکردی آینده پژوهانه. , 1400; 7(3): 9-35. doi: 10.22059/jppolicy.2021.83364

مدل‌‌سازی مداخلات اثربخش در مدیریت و کنترل ویروس کرونا (SARS-CoV-2) در ایران: رویکردی آینده پژوهانه

سیاستگذاری عمومی
مقاله 1، دوره 7، شماره 3، 1400، صفحه 9-35    اصل مقاله (1.22 M)
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jppolicy.2021.83364
نویسندگان
حمید بهلولی* 1؛ حمید رضا جمشیدی2؛ عاطفه عابدینی3؛ علی ابرازه4؛ فهیمه ربانی خواه5
1استاد مدعو دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه تهران
2استاد دانشگاه علوم پزشکی و خدمات بهداشتی درمانی شهید بهشتی
3دانشیار دانشگاه علوم پزشکی و خدمات بهداشتی درمانی شهید بهشتی
4استادیار دانشگاه علوم پزشکی و خدمات بهداشتی درمانی قم
5دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت آموزش عالی دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی
چکیده
داشتن اطلاعات و دانش کافی در مورد وضعیت همه گیری حاصل از (SARS-CoV-2)  ، یکی از موثرترین عوامل سیاستگذاری مبتنی بر شواهد در کنترل این پدیده مخرب در کشورها است. مداخلات مناسب و به موقع برای کنترل آگاهانه شیوع بیماری ضروری است. این مقاله مداخلات دولتی (پشتیبانی ، اقتصادی ، امنیتی) و راهبردی پیشگیری )4 (Tو مداخلات رفتاری در دوران قبل از واکسیناسیون و پس از واکسیناسیون را در کشورهای مختلف  بررسی می کند و واکسیناسیون را مهمترین و تأثیرگذارترین مداخله در حال حاضر می‌داند. با این حال، مداخلات غیردارویی(NPIs)، باید حداقل یک سال پس از واکسیناسیون کامل جمعیت مورد‌نظر ادامه یابد. قابل ذکر است که ایجاد جهش های جدید و فرار از واکسن، نگرانی‌های زیادی را برای ادامه کنترل بیماری ایجاد کرده‌است. روش پژوهش در این مقاله مبتنی بر شیوه مرور محدوده نظر ادبیات علمی برای یافتن منابع اصلی و مفاهیم کلیدی و شواهد موجود در شناخت انواع مداخلات حکومتی و غیردارویی – رفتاری در جهان و مدل‌سازی با رویکرد آینده پژوهی در کنترل پاندمی بیماری کوید-19 در ایران بوده است. باتوجه به مطالعات انجام شده و بررسی روند بیماری در نقاط مختلف دنیا، این مقاله مدل مداخله نقطه‌ای- اقتضائی مبتنی برموج سینوس را برای کنترل بیماری کوید-۱۹ در ایران و کشورهای مشابه ارائه می‌نماید.
کلیدواژه‌ها
سیاستگذاری؛ پاندمی کوید-19؛ آینده پژوهی؛ سناریو؛ مداخلات غیر دارویی؛ حکمرانی کوید-19
عنوان مقاله [English]
Modeling Effective Interventions in Corona Virus (SARS-CoV-2) Management and Control in iran: A Futuristic Approach
نویسندگان [English]
Hamid Bohloli1؛ Hamid Reza Jamshidi2؛ Atefeh Abedini3؛ Ali Ebraze4؛ Fahimeh Rabbani Khah5
1Visiting Professor, Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran MD, PhD.
2Professor of Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, PhD
3Associate professor of Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, MD, PhD
4assistant professor of Qom University of Medical Sciences, PhD.
5PhD student in Higher Education Management, Allameh Tabatabai University, Mph
چکیده [English]
Having sufficient information and knowledge about the pandemic situation of (SARS-CoV-2) is one of the most effective evidence-based policy factors in controlling this destructive phenomenon in countries. Proper and timely interventions are essential for conscious control of the disease outbreak. This article examines governmental interventions (logistical, economic, security) and strategic health (4T) and behavioral interventions in different countries' pre-vaccine and post-vaccination eras. It considers vaccination the most critical and influential intervention.  However, Non-Pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) should be continued for at least one year after the complete vaccination of the target population. It is noteworthy that the development of new mutations and escape from the vaccine has raised many concerns for continued control of the disease. The research method in this article is based on the Scope review of scientific literature to find the main sources and key concepts in recognizing various governmental interventions and NPIs in the world and modelling a novel intervention formula with a futuristic approach in pandemic disease control. Based on the studies conducted and the disease trend in different parts of the world, this article presents the sine wave-based point-contingency intervention model for controlling Covid-19 disease in Iran and similar countries.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
Policy Making, Covid-19 Pandemic, Futurology, Scenario, Non- Pharmaceutical Intervention, Covid-19, Governance
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