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آینده پژوهی پیامدهای انتقال آب چاه‌های عمیق تایباد به سنگ معدن سنگان خواف بر نواحی روستایی شهرستان تایباد | ||
| پژوهشهای روستائی | ||
| مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 24 فروردین 1403 | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jrur.2024.369453.1896 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| زکیه آفتابی1؛ مراد کاویانی راد* 2؛ فاطمه نعمتی3 | ||
| 1گروه آموزشی جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشکده چغرافیا، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران. | ||
| 2گروه جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران. | ||
| 3گروه آموزشی جغرافیای روستایی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| رشد فزاینده صنعت، برداشت بی‌رویه از منابع محدود، دگرش اقلیم، بی‌پروایی نسبت به بایسته‌های توسعه پایدار، بنیادهای زیستی و تعادل بنمایههای زیستکره را به شدت برآشفته‌اند. در این میان، امنیت غذایی جوامع درهمتنیدگی بالایی با پایداری و پویایی فعالیتهای روستایی دارد که به منابع آب در دسترس بستگی دارد. این در حالی است که طی چند دهه گذشته سهم آبِ بخش صنعت افزایش یافته و در برخی مناطق، آب حوزه کشاورزی به سمت صنعت جهتداده شده است. تداوم این وضعیت امنیت غذایی، پایداری و پویایی فعالیتهای روستایی را تهدید میکند. شهرستان کم بارش تایباد در خاور کشور، درگیر انتقال آب چاه‌های عمیق موجود به سنگ معدن سنگان خواف بوده است. مقاله حاضر به آینده‌پژوهی پیامدهای انتقال آب چاه‌های عمیق تایباد به سنگ معدن سنگان خواف بر نواحی روستایی شهرستان تایباد پرداخته است. روششناسی حاکم بر پژوهش، توصیفی ـ تحلیلی است. دروندادههای مورد نیاز با روش کتابخانهای و میدانی گردآوری و با بهرهگیری از نرمافزارهای Micmac، Scenario Wizard، Vensim و مدل AHP مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که از هجده وضعیت احتمالی مربوط به پنج سناریو با سازگاری قوی، وضعیتهایی که پیامدهای انتقال آب چاه‌های عمیق تایباد به سنگ معدن سنگان خواف بر نواحی روستایی تایباد را در آستانه بحران بیان میکنند، بیشترین وضعیتهای احتمالی ممکن را در بر میگیرند. بر این پایه، راهکار "انتقال آب چاه‌های عمیق تایباد به سنگ معدن سنگان خواف به علت بحرانی بودن منابع آب در شهرستان تایباد و ضعف در تغذیه آبخوان‌های این شهرستان متوقف شود"، مناسب‌ترین راهکار شناخته شد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| انتقال آب؛ آینده پژوهی؛ چاه‌های عمیق تایباد؛ سنگ معدن سنگان خواف؛ شهرستان تایباد | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Future study of the consequences of transferring water from deep wells of Taibad to Sangan Khaf ore on the rural areas of Taibad city. | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Zakeyeh Aftabi1؛ Morad kaviani Rad2؛ fatemeh nemati gozgani3 | ||
| 1Department of Political Geography, Faculty of Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran. | ||
| 2Department of Political Geography, Faculty of Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran. | ||
| 3Department of Rural Geography, Faculty of Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Introduction: Water transfer is being implemented in parts of the world with the aim of water resource deficit. In recent years, the water resources of the dry city of Taybad, which are mainly in the form of deep wells, are transferred to the ore of Sangan Khaf. The residents of the villages of this city, who are active in agriculture and animal husbandry, became unemployed and migrated to the city of Taybad or the big cities of Mashhad, Karaj and Northern cities of Iran and got involved in the problems of neighborhood got involved in the problems of neighborhood settlement. On the other hand, the indiscriminate exploitation of Khaf ore from the water of deep wells in Taybad has led to the emergence of many environmental problems such as the decrease in the level of underground aquifers, land subsidence and water crisis in the city of Taybad, the upcoming article deals with the future study of the consequences of the transfer of water from deep wells of Taybad to Sangan Khaf ore on the rural areas of Taybad city. According to the most likely scenario. Methodology: The present research is applied in nature. The required data was collected by library and survey methods and analyzed with a quantitative-qualitative combined approach and structural analysis and using Micmac, Scenario Wizar software and AHP Model. In the upcoming research, first by referring to library sources, the most important consequences of the transfer of Tabiad deep wells to Sangan Khaf ore on the rural areas of Taibad city were identified and through interviews with experts, who were selected by purposeful sampling and continued until information saturation. Their accuracy was checked. Then, a researcher-made questionnaire was adjusted in the form of an impact analysis matrix, and in the Micmac software, the degree of connection of the variables with the relevant field was identified by the experts, and eight variables were identified as the key variables of the research. A total of 32 modes were considered for eight key variables. Based on the key variables and its various modes, a cross-sectional questionnaire was designed and made available to the research statistical community. Completed questionnaires were entered in the Scenario wizard software through the Ensemble command. Future scenarios of the consequences of the transfer of Taibad deep wells to Sangan Khaf ore on the rural areas of Taibad city were identified and scenarios with strong compatibility were analyzed. Suitable solutions were formulated with the most probable scenario. Results and discussion: In this research, firstly , with library studies, background checks and interviews with research experts, the consequences of the transfer of water from deep wells of Taybad to Khaf ore on the rural areas of Taybad were identified and using Micmac software, eight variables were identified: decrease in the water level of underground aquifers, subsidence land, the depopulation of Taybad villages, the intensification of social tension over water, the threat of food security, the aggravation of the economic inequality of resident, the spread of desertification and the decrease of trust of the residents of Taybad villages in the deep wells of Taybad city. In the words, the output of this software identified the eight key drivers influencing the transfer of deep wells of Taybad to khaf ore in the rural areas of Taybad. The way the variables are distributed in the scatter plane shows the instability of the system. With the perspectives of the future research, for the key drivers, different states from three to five assumptions and a total of 30 possible states were designed and entered into the scenario wizard software, and the table of possible scenario is the output of this software. Conclusion: The results of the research showed that the probability of negative events (situation on the threshold of crisis and crisis) is more than positive events (optimal and semi-optimal situation). In such a way that 61.1% of the situations on the scenario page are in a critical state and on the verge of crisis. The output of the scenario wizard software showed that the scenario "the consequences of the transfer of water from the deep wells of Taybad to Khafav ore on the rural areas of Taybad is on the brink of crisis", was recognized as the most likely scenario. The important issue in discussing the future scenarios of the consequences of the transfer of water from the deep wells of Taybad to Khaf ore on the rural areas of Taybad is that those involved in the (influential) field can have a suitable solution for the most probable possible scenario. In other words, brokers should have a better understanding of the current situation and take appropriate solutions based on it. Therefore, solutions should be provided to actors that are somehow compatible with the situation on the verge of crisis and move the situation towards a more favorable state. In this regard, "stopping the transfer of water from the deep wells of Taibad to Khaf ore due to the criticality of water resources in Taibad city and the weakness in feeding the aquifers of this city", according to the experts, it was considered the most suitable solution. Therefore, the sustainable management of current and future resource allocation should be taken into consideration at the national and international scale (Taibad city). The findings of the upcoming research can be used for awareness and planning by the organizations and brokers involved. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| water transfer, future research, Taibad deep wells, Sangan Khaf ore, Taibad city | ||
| مراجع | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 37 |
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