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کاویانی راد, مراد, تک روستا, مریم, آفتابی, زکیه. (1402). تبیین سناریوهای فراروی مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک ایران و افغانستان در منابع آب مشترک با تأکید بر رودخانه هیرمند. , 9(4), 47-63. doi: 10.22059/jppolicy.2024.96180
مراد کاویانی راد; مریم تک روستا; زکیه آفتابی. "تبیین سناریوهای فراروی مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک ایران و افغانستان در منابع آب مشترک با تأکید بر رودخانه هیرمند". , 9, 4, 1402, 47-63. doi: 10.22059/jppolicy.2024.96180
کاویانی راد, مراد, تک روستا, مریم, آفتابی, زکیه. (1402). 'تبیین سناریوهای فراروی مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک ایران و افغانستان در منابع آب مشترک با تأکید بر رودخانه هیرمند', , 9(4), pp. 47-63. doi: 10.22059/jppolicy.2024.96180
کاویانی راد, مراد, تک روستا, مریم, آفتابی, زکیه. تبیین سناریوهای فراروی مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک ایران و افغانستان در منابع آب مشترک با تأکید بر رودخانه هیرمند. , 1402; 9(4): 47-63. doi: 10.22059/jppolicy.2024.96180

تبیین سناریوهای فراروی مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک ایران و افغانستان در منابع آب مشترک با تأکید بر رودخانه هیرمند

سیاستگذاری عمومی
دوره 9، شماره 4، اسفند 1402، صفحه 47-63    اصل مقاله (5.29 M)
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jppolicy.2024.96180
نویسندگان
مراد کاویانی راد* 1؛ مریم تک روستا2؛ زکیه آفتابی2
1دانشیار جغرافیای سیاسی، گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.
2دانشجو دکتری جغرافیای سیاسی، گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
منابع آب مشترک در مناسبات بین کشورها به‎ویژه در مناطق خشک جهان، نقش بسزایی دارد. با نگرش به چنین ویژگی و شناسه‌ای، رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی می‌تواند در ترسیم آینده مناسبات کشورها بر سر منابع آب مشترک، راهبردی باشد. در پژوهش حاضر با روش دلفی 68 عامل تأثیرگذار بر مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک ایران و افغانستان در حوضه رود هیرمند شناسایی و با به‎کارگیری نرم‌افزار Micmac عوامل کلیدی مؤثر، مشخص و برای هر کدام از عوامل کلیدی حالت‌های گوناگونی طراحی و در قالب پرسشنامه متقاطع کلیدی تنظیم و در اختیار جامعه آماری پژوهش قرار گرفت. برای شناسایی سناریوهای محتمل از نرم افزار Scenario Wizard بهره گرفته شد. این نرم افزار با انجام تحلیل‌های مورد نیاز، سه سناریو قوی و محتمل را گزارش داد. بررسی سناریوهای محتمل، گویای چیرگی وضعیت بحرانی بر دیگر وضعیت‌های ممکن است. از این رو، وضعیت فراروی مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک ایران و افغانستان در رودخانه هیرمند، بحرانی نمود یافت.  
کلیدواژه‌ها
طراحی سیاست؛ یادگیری الکترونیک؛ طراحی الگوی سیاستی؛ آموزش و پرورش جمهوری اسلامی ایران
عنوان مقاله [English]
Explaining the Future Scenarios of Hydro Political Relations between Iran and Afghanistan in Common Water Resources with Emphasis on the Hirmand River
نویسندگان [English]
Morad Kaviani Rad1؛ Maryam Tak Rosta2؛ Zakeyeh Aftabi2
1Associate Professor, Department of political geography, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.
2Phd student of political geography, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, University of Kharazmi, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]
Shared water resources play a significant role in the relations between countries, especially in dry regions of the world. By looking at such a characteristic and identifier, the future research approach can be strategic in drawing the future relations of countries over shared water resources. In the current research, 68 factors affecting the hydro political relations between Iran and Afghanistan in the Hirmand river basin were identified using the Delphi method, and by using the Micmac software, the effective key factors were determined, and for each of the key factors, various modes were designed and in the form of a cross-key questionnaire. It was prepared and made available to the statistical community of the research Scenario Wizard software was used to identify possible scenarios. This software Three reported strong and possible scenarios by performing the required analysis. Examining the possible scenarios shows that the critical situation prevails over other possible situations. Therefore, the situation of hydro political relations between Iran and Afghanistan in Hirmand river became critical.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
Water Security, Hydro Politics, Iran, Afghanistan and Hirmand River
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