پیوندهای مفید
اخبار و اعلانات
آمار
| تعداد نشریات | 158 |
| تعداد شماره‌ها | 6,232 |
| تعداد مقالات | 67,791 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 115,271,478 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 90,012,924 |
بازاندیشی تاب‌آوری اقتصادی روسیه در برابر تحریم‌های غرب: الگو و درس‌هایی برای اقتصاد ایران | ||
| مطالعات اوراسیای مرکزی | ||
| دوره 16، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 32، اسفند 1402، صفحه 125-148 اصل مقاله (648.08 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jcep.2024.358211.450143 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| احسان رسولی نژاد1؛ علی اخوان* 2 | ||
| 1دانشیار، گروه مطالعات روسیه، دانشکده مطالعات جهان، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران | ||
| 2دانشجوی دکتری مطالعات روسیه، دانشکدۀ مطالعات جهان، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| روسیه در سال‌های اخیر، به‌ویژه پس از بحران اوکراین در سال 2014 با چالش تحریم اقتصادی روبه‌رو بوده است. این کشور برای بی‌اثرکردن تحریم‌ها اقدام‌های مختلفی انجام داده است، اما برای رویارویی با تحریم می‌تواند از دیگر الگوهای اقتصادی نیز بهره‌برداری کند. این پرسش مطرح است که تاب‌آوری اقتصادی روسیه و تجربۀ این کشور در برابر تحریم‌های غربی چه درس‌هایی برای ایران دارد؟ با روش پژوهش کیفی و با مطالعۀ مقاله‌ها و منابع کتابخانه‌ای، داده‌های پژوهش را تجزیه و تحلیل می‌کنیم. با درنظرداشتن مفهوم تحریم اقتصادی و همچنین چارچوب‌های کلی این مفهوم، فرض بر این است که روسیه برای رویارویی با تحریم‌های غربی از سیاست‌های جانشینی واردات و چرخش به شرق بهره گرفته است. الگوی «ساخت چین- 2025» نیز می‌تواند برای روسیه کارآمد باشد. ایران نیز برای ایجاد اقتصاد قوی ضدتحریمی به سیاستی بلندمدت نیاز دارد که تجربۀ روسیه و همچنین سیاست «ساخت چین-2025» می‌تواند الگویی برای اقتصاد ایران باشد. در این نوشتار مشخص می‌شود که سیاست «ساخت چین-2025» هم به‌شکل اصولی‌تر سیاست جانشینی واردات را توسعه می‌دهد و هم عرصه را برای فناوری‌های پیشرفته و روزآمد هموار می‌کند. ساختار اقتصاد ایران و روسیه با وجود تفاوت‌های ساختاری از جهت‌هایی مانند نفتی بودن، دولتی بودن، زیر تحریم بودن، گرایش به تنوع‌بخشی و دیوان‌سالاری پیچیده شباهت‌هایی با یکدیگر دارند. بنابراین چنین الگویی می‌تواند در اقتصاد ایران هم استفاده شود که دچار چالش تحریم‌های غرب در اندازه و شدت بیشتر است. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| تحریم؛ سیاست ضدتحریمی؛ تاب‌آوری اقتصادی؛ روسیه؛ ایران | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Rethinking Russia’s Economic Resilience against Western Sanctions: Model and Lessons for Iran's Economy | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Ehsan Rasoulinezhad1؛ Ali Akhavan2 | ||
| 1Associate Professor, Department of Russian Studies, Faculty of World Studies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 2A Ph.D. Candidate in Russian Studies, Faculty of World Studies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Introduction: The Russian economy relies heavily on the export of raw materials, making it vulnerable to the political decisions of its client countries. Russia has a history of tensions with the West and periods of cooperation with it have been short-lived. Significant events such as the global economic crisis in 2007-2008 and the political confrontation with the West that led to economic sanctions have had a profound impact on the Russian economy. The most recent manifestation of these differences appeared during the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine in February 2022. Iran, which is heavily dependent on oil exports, has been facing Western sanctions for many years. These sanctions have led to a decline in the government’s income and a decrease in the value of the currency for Iran. This situation has limited access to global financial systems and has posed challenges to the international trade. To counter the impact of Western sanctions, Iran has adopted an anti-sanctions economic model that prioritizes domestic production and investment in infrastructure projects. Iran’s goal is to achieve economic growth by focusing on strengthening the domestic market and reducing reliance on foreign trade amid external pressures. Gaining insights from other countries with similar economic structures that have successfully implemented anti-sanctions models can provide valuable lessons for Iran's efforts. This article examines Russia’s experiences, which can benefit Iran’s efforts and examines appropriate anti-sanctions models for Iran. Research question: What lessons can Iran learn from Russia's economic resistance and its ability to resist Western sanctions? Research hypothesis: In response to Western sanctions, Russia has implemented import substitution and turned to the East. Inspired by China's successful “Made in China-2025” model, this approach could prove effective for Russia. Similarly, Iran needs a well-thought-out long-term strategy to build a robust anti-sanctions economy. Using Russia's experience and adopting the “Made in China-2025” policy can be a valuable plan for Iran's economic development. Methodology and theoretical framework: The research method is qualitative and the data is collected by referring to articles and scientific sources. There are various definitions of economic sanctions and their conceptual frameworks in academic literature. For example, Knobel examines the historical development of theories on economic sanctions over the past century to address questions about their objectives, motivations, effectiveness, and consequences. Anton Flipenko offers two views on the definition of economic sanctions: Realism and Liberalism. In the liberal view, he identifies two approaches - Cosmopolitanism and Authoritarianism. Results and discussion: After the Ukraine crisis, Russia faced sanctions that threatened its economy. However, policies such as “import substitution” and “pivot to the east” helped Russia mitigate the damage. Similar strategies are used around the world to boost economic development and protect against shocks and sanctions. Notable policies include India's “Made in India”, Germany's “Industry 4”, America's “Buy American and hire American”, and China's “Made in China-2025”. According to the economic, political, geographical, and cultural conditions of Russia, China’s approach can serve as a model for overcoming development challenges. This model may benefit Iran's economy, which is facing problems caused by oil dependence and sanctions. Iran and Russia share similarities in their reliance on natural resources like oil and gas, facing government oversight, international sanctions, economic volatility, crises, and the desire to diversify their economies while dealing with bureaucracy and corruption that hinder efficiency. The slowdown in China's economic growth rate in 2015 prompted the government to act to accelerate development. This included the introduction of a series of government programs and schemes. One of these programs, “Made in China-2025”, was unveiled in 2015. It outlined the tasks related to advanced technologies, the development of Chinese brands, and the promotion of service-oriented production over a ten-year period. The plan’s main focus is on innovation, filling gaps in key sectors, prioritizing quality, promoting “green manufacturing”, attracting talented employees, and building Chinese brands. China has emphasized ten key sectors in its construction program, all designed to meet global and domestic needs. By relying on these sectors, China’s goals are to strengthen its economic capacity. Given the above information, “Made in China-2025” program can serve as a model for the Russian economy. In response to economic sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union, Russia has prioritized import substitution and increased support for domestic production and localization of industry. Russia can make significant progress by following the example of China. Furthermore, as Russia's need for new technologies continues to grow, it is considering a shift toward smart and digital products to align with global economic trends. In this research, we concluded that this model can be effective for Iran as well. Conclusion: Russia has implemented the so-called “turning to the east” and “import substitution” policies to deal with the sanctions. East Asian countries have imposed less economic sanctions against Russia, making this policy a viable solution. Iran, which is rich in oil and under sanctions, can learn from Russian model and prioritize operational experiences in its plans. To overcome economic challenges caused by sanctions, Iran needs to implement import substitution, turn to the east, and design a long-term development policy. China's “Made in China 2025” program can be effective for Iran with the necessary adaptations. One of the strategies to reduce Western sanctions in Iran is to adopt global development models such as China’s “Made in China 2025” plan. This plan focuses on China’s position as a global leader in high-tech industries, robotics, and transportation using new fuels, aircraft manufacturing and more. By following this approach, Iran can create a long-term strategy to counter Western sanctions while adapting it to its own conditions. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Russia, Iran, Sanction, Anti-Sanction Policy, Economic Resilience | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
Alexandrin, Yu, N (2022), “Stimulating the Development of Technology Parks in the RF”, Economics and Business: Theory and Practice, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 9-13, (doi: 10.24412/2411-0450-2022-3-1-9-13) [in Russian]. Azarbaijani, Karim, Seyyed Kamil Tayyebi and Halimeh Dargiri (2015) “The Effect of the Economic Sanctions of the United States and the European Union on the Bilateral Trade of Iran and Its Major Trading Partners: The Application of the Gravity Model”, Economic Research, Vol. 50, No. 3, pp. 539-562, (doi: 10.22059/jte.2015.55800) [in Persian]. Bayat, Jalil, Seyyed Mohammad Kazem Sajjadpour, Mohammad Hossein Jamshidi and Mohsen Islami (2021), “Explaining the Nature of the Image of the Bolshakov, Valery Evgenievich (2020), “The Influence of Special Economic Zones on the Development of the Russian Economy Using the Example of the Special Economic Zone Technopolis Moscow”, Stolypinsky Bulletin, Vol. 2, No. 1, pp. 116-124, Available at: https://www.cyberleninka.ru/article/n/vliyanie-osobyh-ekonomicheskih-zon-na-razvitie-ekonomiki-rf-na-primere-osoboy-ekonomicheskoy-zony-tehnopolis-moskva (Accessed on: 14/01/2024) [in Russian]. Bratersky, Maxim Vladimirovich and Georgy Igorevich Kutyrev (2019), “Russia Between Two Systems: the Prospect of Transit from the Atlantic World to the Eurasian-Pacific World”, Contours of Global Transformations: Politics, Economics, Law, Vol. 12, No. 1, pp. 220-240, Available at: https://www.cyberleninka.ru/article/n/rossiya-mezhdu-dvuh-sistem-perspektiva-tranzita-iz-atlanticheskogo-mira-v-mir-evraziysko-tihookeanskiy (Accessed on: 14/01/2024) [in Russian]. Concept of Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation (2023), Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Available at: https://www.mid.ru/ru/ foreign_policy/official_documents/1860586/ (Accessed on: 14/01/2024), [in Russian]. Darabi, Mehdi, and Meysam Khosravi Vishkaei (2022), “Russia's Economic Policies in Dealing with Sanctions with a Focus on Foreign Exchange Policies and Lessons for Iran”, Islamic Council Research Center, Available at: https://sid.ir/paper/1047508/fa (Accessed on: 14/01/2024) [in Persian]. Doraev, Mergen (2016), “Economic Sanctions in the Law of the USA, the European Union and Russia”, Infotropic Media, Moscow, [in Russian]. Ershov P. A. (2017), “Import Substitution and Import Substitution Policy: a Theoretical Approach to the Definition of Concepts”, Bulletin of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, No. 2, pp. 147-157, Available at: https://www.cyberleninka.ru/article/n/importozameschenie-i-politika-importozamescheniya-teoreticheskiy-podhod-k-opredeleniyu-ponyatiy (Accessed on: 14/01/2024) [in Russian]. Eslami, Mohsen and Vahid Hosseinzadeh (2018), “Factors Affecting the Attraction of Foreign Direct Investment in the Russian Federation”, Central Eurasia Studies, Vol. 11, No. 2, pp. 283-303, (doi: 10.22059/jcep.2019.214201.449663) [in Persian]. Ezzati, Morteza, Hasan Heydari and Parvin Moridi (2020), “Investigating the Effect of Economic Sanctions on the Production and Employment of Iran's Industrial Sector”, Strategic and Macro Policy Quarterly, Vol. 8, No. 29, pp. 38-63, (doi: 10.30507/jmsp.2020.102274) [in Persian]. Filipenko, Anton, Olena Bazhenova and Roman Stakanov (2020). “Economic Sanctions: Theory, Policy, Mechanisms”. Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. 6, No. 2, pp. 69-80, (doi: 10.30525/2256-0742/2020-6-2-69-80) [in English]. History of Relations between Russia and the G7 (2019), Tass, Available at: https://tass.ru/info/6792142, (Accessed on 11/24/2023), [in Russian]. How Russia is Experiencing “Cultural Sanctions” and What Will Happen Next (2022), Tass, Available at: https://tass.ru/kultura/16690551 (Accessed on 11/24/2023), [in Russian]. Inozemtsev, Vladislav (2014), “How Will Sanctions Hit Russia”, Algorithm, Moscow, Available at: https://www.litres.ru/book/vladislav-inozemcev/kak-sankcii-udaryat-po-rossii-8683881/chitat-onlayn/ (Accessed on: 14/01/2024) [in Russian]. Kerimov D. A (2016), “Import Substitution in Energy”, Bulletin of the Ugra State University, Vol. 4, No. 43, pp. 52-54, Available at: https://cyberleninka.ru/ article/n/importozameschenie-v-energetike, (Accessed on: 14/01/2024) [in Russian]. Knobel, A.Y., K. A. Proka and K. М. Bagdasaryan (2019), “The Theory and Practice of International Economic Sanctions”, Journal of the New Economic Association, Vol. 43, No. 3, pp.152-162, (doi: 10.31737/2221-2264-2019-43-3-7) [in Russian]. Kolmykova, Tatyana Sergeevna and Nikolai Yurievich Makarov (2021), “Stimulating the Development of High-Tech Industries as a Priority of State Policy in the Field of Science and Technology”, Industrial Economics, Vol. 2, No. 2, pp. 59-64, Available at: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/stimulirovanie-razvitiya-vysokotehnologichnyh-proizvodstv-kak-prioritet-gosudarstvennoy-politiki-v-oblasti-nauki-i-tehnologiy (Accessed on: 14/01/2024) [in Russian]. Kravchenko N.A (2015), “History of Import Substitution”, All-Russian Economic Journal ECO, Vol. 9, No. 495, pp. 73-91, Available at: https://cyberleninka.ru/ article/n/istoriya-importozamescheniya (Accessed on: 14/01/2024) [in Russian]. Krichevsky N.A (2015), “Russia: Through Sanctions - to Prosperity”, Dashkov and K Publishing House, Moscow, Available at: http://www.libgen.li/ edition.php?id=137445801 (Accessed on: 14/01/2024) [in Russian]. Lutzer O.V (2022), “Impact of Sanctions on the Energy Sector of the European Union”, International Journal of Scientific Research, Vol. 4, No. 4-118, pp. 138-140, (doi: 10.23670/IRJ.2022.118.4.136) [in Russian]. Ma Bo (2017), “Russia's Strategy ‘Pivot to the East’”: Opportunities and Challenges for Connecting with Chinese Trans-Regional Projects, Comparative Politics, Vol. 8, No. 2, pp. 82-97, Available at: https://www.cyberleninka.ru/article/n/ strategiya-rossii-povorot-na-vostok-vozmozhnosti-i-vyzovy-dlya-sopryazheniya-s-kitayskimi-transregionalnymi-proektami (Accessed on: 14/01/2024) [in Russian]. Nademi, Younes, Seyed Parviz Kamjoo and Ramin Khochiany (2017), “Econometric Modeling of the Impact of Sanctions on the Foreign Exchange Market and Its Transmission Mechanism to the Variables of the Macroeconomics of Iran”, Econometric Modeling Quarterly, Vol. 2, No. 2, pp. 61-87, (doi: 10.22075/jem.2018.2879) [in Persian]. Nasirov E. V (2016), “Problems of Russia's Emergence as an Energy Superpower”, Archivist, Vol. 11, No. 2, pp. 98-102, Available at: https://cyberleninka.ru/ article/n/problemy-stanovleniya-rossii-kak-energeticheskoy-sverhderzhavy (Accessed on: 14/01/2024) [in Russian]. Nureyev R. M (2017), “Economic Sanctions against Russia and Russian Anti-Sanctions: Costs and Benefits of Confrontation”, Bulletin of Dagestan State University. Series 3: Social Sciences, Vol. 32, No. 3, pp. 94-102, (doi: 10.21779/2500-1930-2017-32-3-94-102) [in Russian]. Pichurin, I. I. and D. V. Blinov (2014), “Ensuring Import Substitution after Russia's Accession to the WTO: a Monograph”, Yekaterinburg, Russia. [in Russian]. Results of Monitoring Information About Trends in the Development of Higher Education in the World and in Russia (2022), Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Available at: https://www.rea.ru/ru/org/managements/Nauchno-issledovatelskijj-institut-razvitija-obrazovanija/Pages/monitoringi_informacii_o_ sostoyanii_vischego_obrazovaniya.aspx (Accessed on 12/13/2023) [in Russian]. Rukavishnikov S. M (2021), “Novels in the Field of Import Substitution: Sajdian Fard, Najmeh, Ebrahim Hadian, Ali Hossein Samadi and Zahra Dehghan Shabani (2019), “Investigating the Effects of International Sanctions on Iran's Business Structure: Network Theory Approach”, Quarterly Journal of Economics and Modeling. Vol. 10, No. 3, pp. 1-28, (doi: 10.29252/ecoj.10.3.1) [in Persian]. Savchenko, Anatoly Evgenievich and Ivan Yurievich Zuenko (2020), “The Driving Forces of the Russian Pivot to the East”, Comparative Politics, Vol. 11, No. 1, pp. 111-125, (doi: 10.24411/2221-3279-2020-10009) [in Russian]. Sedliar, Yuliia (2017) “The Economic Sanctions as the Instrument of Foreign Policy”, Actual Problems of International Relations, pp. 18-26, (doi: 10.17721/apmv.2017.132.0.18-26) [in English]. Shirokova, Irina (2016), “Investments in Improto-Substitution”, Trends and Brands, Remedium, May 2016 [in Russian]. Shirzadi, Reza (2017), “Government, Economic Development and Integration in the Global Economy (Case Study of Russia: 1990-2010)”, Central Eurasia Studies, Vol. 10, No. 1, pp.135-152, (doi: 10.22059/jcep.2017.62904) [in Persian]. Suhadolskaya Lyudmila Leonidovna (2018), “Brand with Chinese Characteristics as a New Force in the Development of the PRC Economy”, Society and State in China, Vol. 48, No. 1, pp. 332-339, Available at: https://www.cyberleninka.ru/ article/n/brend-s-kitayskoy-spetsifikoy-kak-novaya-sila-razvitiya-ekonomiki-knr (Accessed on: 14/01/2024) [in Russian]. Timofeev, Ivan Nikolaevich, Yulia Sergeevna Sokolshchik and Vladimir Anatolyevich Morozov (2022), “Sanctions against Iran: Lessons for Russia in the New International Conditions”, Bulletin of St. Petersburg University. International Relations, Vol. 15, No. 4, pp. 405-420, Available at: https://www.cyberleninka.ru/article/n/sanktsii-protiv-irana-uroki-dlya-rossii-v-novyh-mezhdunarodnyh-usloviyah (Accessed on: 14/01/2024) [in Russian]. Timofeev, Oleg Anatolyevich and Valeria Sergeevna Ronzhina (2017), “Coupling the Programs” Made in China – 2025 “And Industrie 4.0 as the Basis for Innovative Cooperation Between China and Germany”, China in World and Regional Politics, History and Modernity, Vol. 22, No. 22, pp. 338-351, (doi: 10.24411/9785-0324-2017-00022) [in Russian]. Unified Plan for Achieving the National Development Goals of the Russian Federation for the Period Until 2024 and for the Planning Period Until 2030 (2021), Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, Available at: https://www.economy.gov.ru/material/dokumenty/edinyy_plan_po_ dostizheniyu_nacionalnyh_celey_razvitiya_rossiyskoy_federacii_na_period_do_2024_goda_i_na_planovyy_period_do_2030_goda.html (Accessed on 12/13/2023), [in Russian]. Unilateral Sanctions Against Syria Destroy Partner Approach - Lavrov (2011), Interfax, Available at: https://www.interfax.ru/russia/206294 (Accessed on 29/05/2023), [in Russian]. Vosoughi, Saeed, Masoumeh Zarei Hadak and Mohammad Zarei Hadak (2015), “Mutual Energy Strategy in the Relations Between Russia and the European Union”, Central Eurasia Studies, Vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 127-148, (doi: 10.22059/jcep.2015.54965) [in Persian]. What Sanctions Were Imposed against Russia in 2022 and How Moscow Responded (2022), Tass, Available at: https://www.tass.ru/info/14538591 (Accessed on 11/24/2023), [in Russian]. Yudina, Maria Aleksandrovna (2020), “Industry 4.0: Competition for Relevance”, Public Administration, Electronic Bulletin, No. 80, pp. 286-303, (doi: 10.24411/2070-1381-2020-10074) [in Russian]. Zeineshev, Timur Zhumatovich, Gulmira Amangeldievna Mashimbaeva and Marianna Viktorovna Ilyashevich (2017), “Types of Sanctions in International Law”, Eurasian Scientific Journal, No. 4, pp. 115-119. Available at: https://www.cyberleninka.ru/article/n/vidy-sanktsiy-v-mezhdunarodnom-prave (Accessed on: 14/01/2024) [in Russian]. Zeping Yang (2016), “Hong Kong as a Free Economic Zone for the Implementation of Large Innovative Projects in China”, Bulletin of the Russian Zubritskaya, Inessa (2018), “The Concept of "Industry 4.0" and the Prerequisites for Its Application in the Domestic Industry”, Science and Innovation, Vol. 7, No. 185, pp. 38-41. Available at: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/kontseptsiya-industriya-4-0-i-predposylki-ee-primeneniya-v-otechestvennoy-promyshlennosti (Accessed on: 14/01/2024) [in Russian]. | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 287 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 89 |
||