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بازاندیشی تابآوری اقتصادی روسیه در برابر تحریمهای غرب: الگو و درسهایی برای اقتصاد ایران | ||
مطالعات اوراسیای مرکزی | ||
دوره 16، شماره 2، اسفند 1402، صفحه 125-148 اصل مقاله (648.08 K) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jcep.2024.358211.450143 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
احسان رسولی نژاد1؛ علی اخوان* 2 | ||
1دانشیار، گروه مطالعات روسیه، دانشکده مطالعات جهان، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران | ||
2دانشجوی دکتری مطالعات روسیه، دانشکدۀ مطالعات جهان، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران | ||
چکیده | ||
روسیه در سالهای اخیر، بهویژه پس از بحران اوکراین در سال 2014 با چالش تحریم اقتصادی روبهرو بوده است. این کشور برای بیاثرکردن تحریمها اقدامهای مختلفی انجام داده است، اما برای رویارویی با تحریم میتواند از دیگر الگوهای اقتصادی نیز بهرهبرداری کند. این پرسش مطرح است که تابآوری اقتصادی روسیه و تجربۀ این کشور در برابر تحریمهای غربی چه درسهایی برای ایران دارد؟ با روش پژوهش کیفی و با مطالعۀ مقالهها و منابع کتابخانهای، دادههای پژوهش را تجزیه و تحلیل میکنیم. با درنظرداشتن مفهوم تحریم اقتصادی و همچنین چارچوبهای کلی این مفهوم، فرض بر این است که روسیه برای رویارویی با تحریمهای غربی از سیاستهای جانشینی واردات و چرخش به شرق بهره گرفته است. الگوی «ساخت چین- 2025» نیز میتواند برای روسیه کارآمد باشد. ایران نیز برای ایجاد اقتصاد قوی ضدتحریمی به سیاستی بلندمدت نیاز دارد که تجربۀ روسیه و همچنین سیاست «ساخت چین-2025» میتواند الگویی برای اقتصاد ایران باشد. در این نوشتار مشخص میشود که سیاست «ساخت چین-2025» هم بهشکل اصولیتر سیاست جانشینی واردات را توسعه میدهد و هم عرصه را برای فناوریهای پیشرفته و روزآمد هموار میکند. ساختار اقتصاد ایران و روسیه با وجود تفاوتهای ساختاری از جهتهایی مانند نفتی بودن، دولتی بودن، زیر تحریم بودن، گرایش به تنوعبخشی و دیوانسالاری پیچیده شباهتهایی با یکدیگر دارند. بنابراین چنین الگویی میتواند در اقتصاد ایران هم استفاده شود که دچار چالش تحریمهای غرب در اندازه و شدت بیشتر است. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
تحریم؛ سیاست ضدتحریمی؛ تابآوری اقتصادی؛ روسیه؛ ایران | ||
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