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فریادرس, علی, ملکی, عباس. (1402). درآمدی بر مفهوم قلّه نفتی و الزامات سیاستگذاری: مطالعه موردی ایران. , 9(3), 78-99. doi: 10.22059/jppolicy.2023.95724
علی فریادرس; عباس ملکی. "درآمدی بر مفهوم قلّه نفتی و الزامات سیاستگذاری: مطالعه موردی ایران". , 9, 3, 1402, 78-99. doi: 10.22059/jppolicy.2023.95724
فریادرس, علی, ملکی, عباس. (1402). 'درآمدی بر مفهوم قلّه نفتی و الزامات سیاستگذاری: مطالعه موردی ایران', , 9(3), pp. 78-99. doi: 10.22059/jppolicy.2023.95724
فریادرس, علی, ملکی, عباس. درآمدی بر مفهوم قلّه نفتی و الزامات سیاستگذاری: مطالعه موردی ایران. , 1402; 9(3): 78-99. doi: 10.22059/jppolicy.2023.95724

درآمدی بر مفهوم قلّه نفتی و الزامات سیاستگذاری: مطالعه موردی ایران

سیاستگذاری عمومی
دوره 9، شماره 3، 1402، صفحه 78-99    اصل مقاله (2.2 M)
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jppolicy.2023.95724
نویسندگان
علی فریادرس* 1؛ عباس ملکی2
1دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد علوم اقتصادی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران
2استاد سیاستگذاری انرژی، دانشگاه صنعتی شریف، تهران، ایران
چکیده
ویژگی پایان ­پذیر بودن منابع انرژی فسیلی بخصوص نفت و گاز طبیعی باعث شده­ است تا مطالعاتی پیرامون زمان به اتمام رسیدن این مخازن و یا زمان رخ دادن بیشینه استخراج از منابع صورت­ گیرد. در این مقاله ابتدا سیر تطوّر مفهوم قلّه یا قلّه نفتی مورد واکاوی قرار­گرفته ­است. سپس زمان وقوع قلّه نفتی ایران در قالب سه سناریو براساس نظریه هیوبرت مورد مطالعه قرار می­گیرد. همچنین، سایر عوامل همچون تکنولوژی، گذار انرژی، تغییرات اقلیمی، و کووید-19 به عنوان مباحث تکمیلی بررسی می­شوند. نتایج این پژوهش نشان می­ دهد که قلّه نفتی ایران در دو تا سه دهه پیش­رو رقم خواهد­خورد، اما با توجه به نگرانی­ هایی همچون گذار به سوی انرژی­ های تجدیدپذیر در جهان، فرصت ایران برای تصمیم ­گیری و اقدام بسیار محدود است. در پایان نیز توصیه ­های سیاستی مبتنی بر جوانب مختلف بررسی­ شده پیرامون قلّه نفتی، جهت مدیریت بهتر در رویارویی با قلّه نفتی ایران مطرح می­ شود.
کلیدواژه‌ها
نظریه هیوبرت؛ قلّه نفتی ایران؛ گذار انرژی؛ تغییرات اقلیمی؛ کووید-19
عنوان مقاله [English]
Window to the Concept of Peak Oil and Policy Implications: Case of Iran
نویسندگان [English]
Ali Faryadras1؛ Abbas Maleki2
1Master's Student in Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economy and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.
2Professor, Department of Energy Systems, Faculty of Energy Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]
The exhaustibility of fossil energy sources, particularly oil and natural gas, has led to search about when these reservoirs will be depleted or when the maximum extraction from the resources will occur. In this paper, the evolution of the concept of oil peak has been analyzed. The time of Iran's oil peak will be investigated using three scenarios based on King Hubert's theory. Also, other factors such as technology, energy transition, climate change, and the COVID-19 pandemic are examined as complementary topics. The results of this research show Iran's oil peak will occur in the next two to three decades. Concerning concepts such as the transition to renewable energies around the world, Iran's opportunities to make decisions and take actions are very limited. Finally, some policy recommendations based on the various aspects of the oil peak have been discussed in order to better encounter Iran's oil peak.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
Hubbert Theory, Iran’s Oil Peak, Energy Transition, Climate Change, COVID-19
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