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امنیت انرژی، نظام جهانی، و معمای امنیت مارپیچی جرویس؛ مطالعة موردی: جنگ روسیه و اوکراین | ||
| مطالعات کشورها | ||
| دوره 1، شماره 4، 1402، صفحه 515-556 اصل مقاله (833.26 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jcountst.2023.359034.1032 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| علی فریادرس1؛ عباس ملکی* 2 | ||
| 1گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکدة اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران. | ||
| 2گروه سیستم‌های انرژی، دانشکدة مهندسی انرژی، دانشگاه صنعتی شریف، تهران، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| تصمیم‌گیری‌های سیاسی و اقدام در سطح بین‌المللی با بهره‌مندی از سازوکارهای روان‌شناختی پیچیده، ادراک‌ها، و سوءادراک‌هایی شکل می‌گیرد و پیش‌بینی خروجی اقدام‌های سیاسی و اجتماعی دشوار می‌شود. در این پژوهش، با استفاده از معمای امنیت یا مدل مارپیچی رابرت جرویس، به‌دنبال آن هستیم که دریابیم در روابط بینالملل و روانشناسی سیاسی، آیا اقدام‌های دولت در جهت افزایش امنیت خود با ایجاد سوءادراک به‌منزلة تهدید، به اتخاذ اقدام‌های امنیتی در دولت دیگر منجر می‌شود. چنین چرخة عمل و عکس‌العملی ممکن است باعث شود تنش، تشدید آن، و پدیدآمدن منازعات متعدد میان طرفین بروز یابد. نقش انرژی‌ـ به‌مثابة یکی از محرک‌های اصلی اقتصاد، جامعه، و روابط متقابل آن با امنیت ملی کشورها و مسائل ژئوپلیتیکی‌ـ موجب می‌شود تا دولت‌ها به امنیت انرژی، به‌عنوان یکی از صورت‌های گوناگون امنیت، توجه ویژه‌ای داشته باشند. در این پژوهش تلاش شده است چگونگی پیوند میان مقولة امنیت انرژی با معمای امنیت، به‌خصوص با توجه به تنظیم‌کننده‌های معمای امنیت از منظر جرویس (عوامل فیزیکیـمادی و عوامل روانشناسیـادراکی)، با هدف کشورشناسی و مطالعة موردی روسیه و اوکراین بررسی شود. در راستای عوامل فیزیکیـمادی معمای امنیت، نقش انرژی و سیستم‌های انرژی در جایی بررسی شده است که در معرض تهدیدهای امنیتی قرار می‌گیرد یا خود عامل ایجاد ناامنی است. همچنین، در زمینة عوامل روانشناسیـادراکی، ظرفیت‌های امنیت انرژی در ایجاد سوءادراک و منشأهای گوناگون آن بررسی شده است. در نهایت نیز با مفهوم‌سازی «معمای امنیت انرژی مارپیچی»، زمینه‌های همکاری در سایة معمای امنیت و چالش‌های امنیت انرژی واکاوی شده است. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| امنیت انرژی؛ رابرت جرویس؛ مدل مارپیچ؛ معمای امنیت؛ نظام جهانی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Energy security, world system, and Jervis’ spiral security dilemma; Case of Russo-Ukraine War | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Ali Faryadras1؛ Abbas Maleki2 | ||
| 1Department of Economics, Faculty of Economy and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran. | ||
| 2Department of Energy Systems, Faculty of Energy Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Political decisions and actions at the international level are formed by complex psychological mechanisms, perceptions, and misconceptions. It makes difficult to predict the outcome of political and social interactions. In International Relations (IR) and political psychology, the security dilemma, or the spiral model, which was first seriously presented by Robert Jervis, states government's actions to increase its security can lead to the adoption of security measures by creating a misperception as a threat in another government. Such an action-reaction cycle can cause tensions, escalation, and the emergence of numerous conflicts between the parties. The role of energy as one of the main drivers of socio-economic affairs, its interrelationships with countries' national security and geopolitical issues push governments pay special attention to energy security as one of their various forms of security. This research seeks to investigate the relationship between the area of energy security and the security dilemma, especially with regard to the regulators of the security dilemma from Jervis' perspective (physical-material factors and psychological-perceptual factors). In line with the physical-material factors of the security dilemma, we examine the role of energy and energy systems where they are exposed to security threats or are themselves the cause of insecurity. Also, in psychological-perceptual factors, the potential of energy security to generate misperceptions and their diverse origins is explored. A brief case study of the Russo-Ukraine war has also been examined in this regard. Finally, by conceptualizing the "Spiral Energy Security Dilemma", the domains of cooperation in the shadow of the security dilemma and the challenges of energy security are analyzed. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| energy security, Robert Jervis, security dilemma, spiral model, world system | ||
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| مراجع | ||
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