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تحلیل زمانی-مکانی روند فصلی و سالانه روزهای گردوغبار در اقلیمهای خشک ایران | ||
تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران | ||
دوره 54، شماره 3، خرداد 1402، صفحه 513-531 اصل مقاله (2.01 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ijswr.2023.355469.669454 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
جلیل هلالی1؛ ابراهیم اسعدی اسکویی* 2؛ توران حسین زاده3؛ منصوره کوهی4؛ سیده مریم محمدی5 | ||
1گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران | ||
2پژوهشکده اقلیم شناسی، پژوهشگاه هواشناسی و علوم جو، تهران، ایران | ||
3گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکده علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران | ||
4پژوهشکده اقلیم شناسی، مشهد، ایران. | ||
5گروه محیط زیست، دانشکده علوم پایه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد همدان، همدان، ایران | ||
چکیده | ||
گردوغبار پدیده اقلیمی زیانباری است که موجب خسارت به بخشهای محیط زیست و کشاورزی میگردد. هدف این مطالعه بررسی روند و تغییرات فصلی و سالانه رخداد گردوغبار در دوره بلندمدت اقلیمی 1977-2021 در اقلیمهای خشک ایران در 42 ایستگاه سینوپتیک بود. ابتدا تغییرات روزهای گردوغبار در دوره بعد از 2005 نسبت به دوره قبل 2005 و بلندمدت بررسی گردید. سپس تحلیل روند سری زمانی با روش رگرسیونی و تحلیل مکانی با روشهای منکندال و سِن محاسبه گردید. نتایج نشان داد تعداد روزهای گردوغبار در دوره بعد از 2005 افزایش شدیدی نسبت به دوره قبل از 2005 و بلندمدت دارد. روند سری زمانی نیز وجود روند افزایشی را در اکثر اقلیمها و ایستگاهها نشان داد که شدیدترین شیب افزایشی در دورههای 2005 -2010 و بعد از 2011 دیده میشود. نتایج نشان داد فراوانی ایستگاههای با روند افزایشی معنادار در اقلیم فراخشک در مقیاس فصلی و سالانه به ترتیب تا 93 و 64، اقلیم خشک تا 83 و 83 درصد ایستگاهها را در برگرفته است. از طرف دیگر، تغییرات افزایشی روزهای گردوغبار 45 ساله در اقلیم فراخشک در زمستان، بهار، تابستان، پاییز و سالانه به ترتیب تا 68، 69، 68، 55 و 261 روز؛ اقلیم خشک به ترتیب 54، 31، 37، 45 و 187 روز؛ و اقلیم نیمهخشک به ترتیب 23، 21، 9، 12 و 58 روز رسیده است. بنابراین تغییر زمانی فراوانی تعداد روزهای گردوغبار به طرف فصول زمستان و بهار است که نشاندهنده گسترش این پدیده به فصول مرطوب است. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
گردوغبار؛ تحلیل روند زمانی-مکانی؛ اقلیمهای خشک؛ منکندال | ||
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