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توسعه جعبه ابزار پیش‌بینی عملکرد محصول استراتژیک گندم با استفاده از الگوریتم‌های یادگیری ماشین به منظور کاهش مخاطرات امنیت غذایی (مطالعه موردی: استان البرز) | ||
| تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران | ||
| دوره 53، شماره 10، دی 1401، صفحه 2277-2294 اصل مقاله (2.18 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ijswr.2022.342638.669260 | ||
| نویسنده | ||
| محمد انصاری قوجقار* | ||
| گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، دانشگاه تهران ، کرج، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| گندم به عنوان اصلی‌ترین غذای مردم در کشور از اهمیت ویژه‌ای برخوردار است. گندم نه تنها یک کالای مهم کشاورزی-اقتصادی در دنیا محسوب می‌شود، بلکه به عنوان اهرمی قدرتمند در مناسبات سیاسی و جهانی شناخته می‌شود. از این رو تحلیل و پیش‌بینی وضعیت تولید این محصول در کشور همواره مورد توجه بوده است. هدف از این پژوهش پیش‌بینی مقدار عملکرد گندم (X) با استفاده از فرامدل‌های هوش‌مصنوعی در مقیاس زمانی سالانه در استان البرز است. بدین منظور، با استفاده از داده‌های سطح زیر کشت و تولید سالانه، عملکرد گندم در شش شهرستان نظر‌آباد، ساوجبلاغ، کرج، اشتهارد، فردیس و طالقان با طول دوره آماری 40 ساله (2020-1981) بررسی شد. پس از محاسبه مقدار عملکرد (تن در هکتار) و تشکیل سری زمانی سالانه، با استفاده از چهار روش هوش‌مصنوعی شامل الگوریتم بهترین همسایگی (KNN)، ماشین‌بردار پشتیبان (SVM)، برنامه-ریزی بیان‌ژن (GEP) و شبکه بیزین (BN) عملکرد گندم در سال بعد پیش‌بینی شد. نتایج حاکی از افزایش دقت پیش‌بینی‌ها در سال‌های با تولید بیشتر بود؛ به نحوی که بر اساس نتایج حاصل از مدل BN، GEP، SVM و KNN ضریب همبستگی بین مقادیر عملکرد گندم مشاهده‌شده و پیش‌بینی‌شده برای شهرستان کرج به ترتیب 84/0، 89/0، 91/0 و 92/0 به‌دست آمد. با این توضیح که شهرستان‌های کرج و طالقان به ترتیب بیشترین و کمترین تولید گندم را در بین این شهرستان‌ها دارند. نتایج نشان داد روش KNN نسبت به سایر روش‌ها، بهترین دقت را داشت و معیارهای ارزیابی R، RMSE و MAE آن به ترتیب از ۸۴/۰ تا ۹۲/۰، 21/0 تا 24/ 0 تن در هکتار و 11/0 تا 18/0 متغیر بود. در مجموع با مقایسه روش‌های استفاده شده، روش KNN، بیشترین و روش BN کمترین دقت را برای پیش‌بینی مقدار عملکرد گندم در استان البرز داشتند. نتایج این مطالعه می‌تواند در تأمین و مدیریت امنیت غذایی در مناطق تحت مطالعه بسیار مفید واقع شود. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| امنیت‌غذایی؛ پیش‌بینی؛ عملکرد گندم؛ هوش‌مصنوعی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Development of strategic wheat crop prediction toolkit using machine learning algorithms to reduce food security risks (case study: alborz province) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Mohammad Ansari ghojghar | ||
| Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Wheat as the main food in the country is of particular importance. Wheat is not only an important economic agricultural commodity in the world, but also known as a powerful lever in political and global relations. Therefore, the analysis and forecast of the production status of this product in the country has always been the focus of attention. The purpose of this study is to predict the amount of wheat yield (X) using artificial intelligence in the annual time scale in Alborz province. For this purpose, using annual cultivation and production data, wheat yield was investigated in six cities of Nazarabad, Savojbalagh, Karaj, Eshtehard, Fardis and Taleghan with a period of 40 years (1981-2020). After calculating the yield (ton per hectare) and forming an annual time series, four artificial intelligence methods including the best neighbor algorithm (KNN), backup vector (SVM), gene expression planning (GEP) and Bayesin Network (BN) were used and the wheat yield was predicted for the following year. Results indicated a more precision in yield prediction in the years with more production; According to the results of the BN, GEP, SVM and KNN model, the correlation coefficient between the observed and anticipated wheat yield values was 0.84, 0.89, 0.89 and 0.92, respectively. Explaining that Karaj and Taleghan cities have the highest and lowest wheat production respectively. The results showed that the KNN method had the best accuracy among the others, as the values of R, RMSE and MAE varied from 0.84 to 0.92, 0.21 to 0/24 and 0.11 to 0.18. Overall, by comparing the proposed methods, the KNN method had the highest and the BN method had the least accuracy to predict the amount of wheat yield in Alborz province. The results of this study can be very useful in providing and managing food security in areas under study. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Food security, Forecasting, Wheat yield, Artificial intelligence | ||
| مراجع | ||
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