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سوءبرداشتهای پوتین و جنگ ۲۰۲۲ اوکراین | ||
مطالعات اوراسیای مرکزی | ||
دوره 15، شماره 2، اسفند 1401، صفحه 265-288 اصل مقاله (693.25 K) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jcep.2023.349531.450103 | ||
نویسنده | ||
سعید شکوهی* | ||
استادیار گروه روابط بینالملل، دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی | ||
چکیده | ||
دیدگاهها و تحلیلهای متفاوتی از حملۀ سال ۲۰۲۲ روسیه به اوکراین مطرح شده است. برخی از این تحلیلها، دلیل حملۀ روسیه را فشار غرب، گسترش ناتو به مرزهای روسیه و نادیدهگرفتن دغدغههای مسکو میپندارند و برخی دیگر بر این باورند که جاهطلبیهای شخصی پوتین، فرهنگ راهبردی متفاوت روسیه و مسائل داخلی عامل اصلی متوسلشدن کرملین به جنگ با کییف هستند. در این نوشتار بهدنبال پاسخ این پرسش هستیم که سوءبرداشتهای پوتین از شرایط داخلی و معادلههای منطقهای و بینالمللی چه تأثیری بر رویکرد او نسبت به اوکراین گذاشتند؟ برای پاسخ به آن، یک چارچوب مفهومی ترکیبی و برگرفته از آرای مارتین وایت و جک لوی، از دانشوران برجستۀ جهانی در زمینۀ سیاست بینالملل، طراحی کردیم و بهکار گرفتیم. رویکرد این مطالعه از نوع تبیینی است و روش پژوهش بهکارگرفتهشده، روش تحلیل محتوای کیفی جهتدار است. در این روش براساس متغیرهای مشخصشده در چارچوب مفهومی، دادههای مورد نیاز با مراجعۀ مستقیم و غیرمستقیم به آرا و دیدگاههای پوتین و دیگر نخبگان را بهدست آورده، رمزگذاری و تفسیر کردیم. یافتههای نگارنده نشان میدهند که پوتین در سه بعد دچار سوءبرداشت بنیادین شد. این سوءبرداشتها همراه با دو عامل پررنگ در فرهنگ راهبردی روسیه یعنی «غرور» و «ترس»، مانند تسهیلگری موجب تسریع و توجیه جنگ با اوکراین شد. این سه دسته سوءبرداشت از این قرارند: ۱. سوءبرداشت در برآورد میزان قدرت خود و دشمن؛ ۲. سوءبرداشت در زمینۀ نیتهای خصمانۀ دشمن و ۳. سوءبرداشت در زمینۀ واکنش طرفهای سوم. این سوءبرداشتها در کنار اطلاعات نادرست و سوءمحاسبهها و ترکیب آنها با غرور و ترس، نقش مهمی در تصمیم پوتین برای جنگ داشتهاند. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
اوکراین؛ پوتین؛ روسیه؛ جنگ؛ فرهنگ راهبردی؛ سوءبرداشت | ||
مراجع | ||
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