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تحلیل رمز عملیاتی و درک ویژگی‌های روان‌شناختی- سیاسی شخصیت پوتین | ||
| مطالعات اوراسیای مرکزی | ||
| دوره 15، شماره 2، اسفند 1401، صفحه 339-362 اصل مقاله (578.86 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jcep.2023.347347.450094 | ||
| نویسنده | ||
| علی اشرف نظری* | ||
| دانشیار، گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشکدۀ حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| درک ویژگی‌های شخصیتی رهبران سیاسی و شیوۀ شکل‌گیری ادراک‌ها و تصورهای آن‌ها از سیاست از موضوع‌های محوری در رشتة روان‌شناسی سیاسی است. اینکه چگونه متأثر از زمینه‌های خلقی- روانی در سطح فردی و عوامل و موقعیتی- ساختاری، کنش‌های ویژه‌ای را انجام می‌دهند، تصمیم‌هایی گرفته می‌شود و چرا گزینۀ «الف» را به‌جای گزینة «ب» برمی‌گزینند. پرداختن به موضوع این نوشتار از این نظر ضرورت دارد که می‌تواند زمینۀ تحلیل شخصیت، درک نگرش‌ها و رفتارها و پیش‌بینی‌پذیرکردن نسبی عرصة سیاست را فراهم کند. روش تحلیل رمز عملیاتی، یکی از پرکاربردترین فن‌ها برای درک و تحلیل روشمند سرشت شخصیت سیاسی و فهم نگرش‌ها، باورها و اقدام‌های آن‌ها با توجه به ویژگی‌های روان‌شناختی افراد، هم‌زمان با توجه به موقعیت است. پرسش اصلی نوشتار این است که پوتین سرشت سیاست را چگونه درک می‌کند و در مورد کاربست قدرت در امور انسانی چه می‌داند، چه احساسی دارد و چه می‌خواهد؟ محور اصلی بحث این است که چگونه باورها به «بازنمایی ذهنی واقعیت» می‌پردازند و با شکل‌دادن به ادراک رهبران، فرایندهای تصمیم‌گیری را ممکن می‌کنند. در این نوشتار تلاش می‌کنیم ضمن معرفی روش تحلیل رمز عملیاتی، جنبهها و سرشت تحلیلی آن در مورد شخصیت ولادیمیر ولادیمیرویچ پوتین در قالب درک باورهای فلسفی و ابزاری او را بررسی و نقد کنیم. یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که پوتین باید به‌عنوان یک فرصت‌طلب و نه یک راهبردساز بزرگ دیده شود که هرچند در طراحی راه‌کار‌ها خوب است، اما هیچ راهبردی در این میان وجود ندارد و در درازمدت نمی‌تواند موفق باشد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| باورهای فلسفی؛ رمز عملیاتی؛ روان‌شناسی سیاسی؛ شخصیت؛ ولادیمیر پوتین | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Operational Code Analysis and Psycho-Political Understanding of Putin's Personality | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Aliashraf Nazari | ||
| Associate Professor of Political Science, Faculty of Law and Political Sciences, University of Tehran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Introduction: Understanding the personality traits of political leaders and their perceptions and ideas on politics is one of the basic issues in the field of political psychology. How emotional-psychological conditions affect people on the one hand and structural-situational factors on the other, are the decisions that have been made and why option "A" was chosen instead of option "B"? The importance of this matter is that it can provide the basis for personality analysis, understanding of attitudes and behaviors and relative predictability of the political sphere. "Operational code" is one of the useful and practical techniques for the methodical analysis of political figures and understanding the psychological nature of their attitudes, beliefs and actions, the texts of their private or public statements through the study and analysis of diaries, letters, speeches, notes, interviews and press conferences and secondary sources or reports of government activity by external observers such as journalists, historians or political commentators. The importance of this article is the methodical use of operational code analysis with the aim of not being satisfied with the psychobiography genre and examining the psychological characteristics of the individual while paying attention to the situation. The main discussion in related to operational code analysis reflects this cognitivist proposition that beliefs as "mental representation of reality" are important in explaining global politics in various ways, which are not considered in neorealist, neoliberal, and constructivist theories. While leaders can act to change the balance of power, domestic and international institutions and cultural norms in the long term. The nature of cognitive theories differs from rational choice models and structural theories of foreign policy regarding the role of beliefs as causal mechanisms. Instead of passively reflecting the reality, they examine the leaders' decisions by shaping the leaders' perception of the reality and act as cognitive and motivational bias mechanisms that distort and block the information, slows down or recasts incoming information received from the environment. This role for beliefs is especially notable when the environment is uncertain, that is, when information is scarce, ambiguous, contradictory, or so abundant that it is difficult for leaders to organize and process. Also, when new information conflicts with the leader's prior beliefs based on old information, stereotypes, or other cognitive biases associated with threats to self-interest, or when triggered by strong emotions such as fear, anger, shame, hatred. In this paper, while introducing the operational code analysis method, its dimensions and analytical nature in relation to Putin's personality will be examined and criticized. Research Question: The main question of this paper is how Putin understands the nature of politics and what does he know, what does he feel and what does he want about the exercise of power in Political affairs? The main idea is how beliefs interact with "mental representations of reality" and enable decision-making processes by shaping leaders' perceptions. In this paper, while introducing the operational code analysis method, its dimensions and analytical nature in relation to the personality of Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin will be examined and criticized in the form of understanding his philosophical and instrumental beliefs. Methodology (and Theoretical Framework if any: An operational code analysis method for analyzing Putin's personality using a "complete and verbatim file of public conversations", including speeches and interviews, classifications of statements concludes that Putin's beliefs are issue-specific and shows that a combination of competing on some issues and participation in others is consistent with his diverse operating code. In fact, Putin reflects "the traditional and instinctive feeling of Russian insecurity" and the philosophical origins of Putinism, however diverse they may be, are all based on two pillars: the idea of empire and the justification of war. His operational code indicates that he will mimic his environment like a chameleon. Results and Discussion:Putin cannot be expected to act in a normative manner when those involved with him do not. Putin will reciprocate "bad" and "good" behavior, and the failure of cooperation is likely to be bitter and long-lasting. One aspect of Putin's behavior that seems to be an integral part of his self-image is his emphasis on predictability. Putin operates on the assumption that forecasting is a two-way street. You cannot be unpredictable and instead expect the world to be predictable. This is consistent with Putin's central philosophical belief in the "duality" of political life: predictable and coordinated when it is orderly, arbitrary and ruthless when it is not. Putin focuses on "Historical Russia" as the basic legitimacy of his political authority (charismatic and historical legitimacy). He clearly identifies and then defends an official historical narrative that promotes ethno-centrism in relation to the concept of state and civilization (triad of nation, state and civilization). The need for continuity, stability and order and avoiding "ontological insecurity" and "ontological anxiety" related to displacement, trauma and tragedy are the main drivers of Putinism. Putin avoids appeals to ideology and is by no means a revolutionary, preferring, as we can see, the flexibility of a pragmatic approach. During his time, Russia has become a country that has been called "lone power". Russia has no real allies and has damaged its most important link, Germany. According to Russia's official discourse and according to foreign policy practice, Putin's strategic goals seem to be twofold: First, Putin insists that Russia be recognized as an independent strategic and autonomous actor in the international system. Second, Russia seeks to preserve its exceptional identity as a great power and its status, honor, respect, prestige and equality, which makes it possible to achieve the first and the most important goals which are internal stability, the status quo of the elites and the continuation of Putin's power in Russia. Like all human beings, Putin is a complex actor who operates in an ambiguous and unpredictable situation. Furthermore, our data support the interpretation of Putin as an opportunist rather than a grand strategist. Conclusion: The operational code analysis method is one of the most widely used techniques for understanding and systematically analyzing the nature of political personality and understanding their attitudes, beliefs and actions by paying attention to the psychological characteristics of people and at the same time paying attention to the situation. The findings of the research show that Putin should be seen as an opportunist and not a great strategist, that although he is good at designing tactics, there is no strategy in between and he cannot be successful in the long run. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Personality, Political Psychology, Operational Code, Vladimir Putin, Philosophical Beliefs | ||
| مراجع | ||
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Dyson, Stephan Benedict (2001), “Drawing Policy Implications from the `Operational Code' of a `New' Political Actor: Russian President Vladimir Putin”, Policy Sciences, Vol. 34, No, 3, pp. 329-346. (doi: /10.1023/A:1012627604580) Dyson, Stephen Benedict and Matthew J Parent (2017), “The Operational Code Approach to Profiling Political Leaders: Understanding Vladimir Putin”, Intelligence and National Security, Vol. 33, No. 1, pp.1-17 (doi:10.1080/02684527. 2017.1313523) Elaheh Koolaee and Saman Fazeli (2022), “Independent and Extroverted Foreign Policy of Belarus and Tension with Russia during the Putin Era”, Centeral Asia Studies, Vol. 14, No. 2, pp. 271-296 (doi: 10.22059/jcep. 2021.295791.449891). Eltchaninoff, Michel (2018), Inside the Mind of Vladimir Putin, Update version, London: C. Hurst & Co. (Publishers) Ltd. Herd, Graeme (2022), Understanding Russian Strategic Behavior: Imperial Strategic Culture and Putin’s Operational Code, New York: Routledge. Houghton, David Patrick (2016), Political Psychology, Translated by Aliashraf Nazari and Shahrzad Muftooh. Second edition, Tehran: Ghoomes] in Persian]. Kotkin, Stephen (2015), “The Resistible Rise of Vladimir Putin: Russia’s Nightmare Dressed Like a Daydream”. Foreign affairs, Vol. 94, No. 2, pp. 140-153. Available at: http://www.jstor.org/stable/24483492, (Accessed on: 9/1/2023). Lankina, Tomila, Alexander Libman and Anastassia Obydenkova (2016), “Authoritarian and Democratic Diffusion in Post-Communist Regions”, Comparative Political Studies, Vol. 49, pp. 1599–1629, (doi:10.1177/ 001041401662827) Majid Rouhi and Mohammad Hussian Moradi Parsa (2022), “Putin and the Questions of Global Governance; Ideas and Principles”, Centeral Eurasia Studies, Vol. 14, No. 2, pp. 127-150, (doi:10.22059/jcep.2022.317269. 449975)Schafer, Mark and Stephen G Walker (2006) (edited by), Beliefs and Leadership in World Politics: Methods and Applications of Operational Code Analysis, New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Strelets, Ilya (2015), On the Personality-Centered Approach to Analyzing Russian Presidential Leadership: A Study of Putin’s Presidency, A Paper, Presented at Conference on Methods in Political Science: A Rainbow of Challenges, University of Antwerp, Belgium, September 17-18: 1-20. Tolouei, Mahmoud (2016), From Lenin to Putin, Tehran: Tehran Publications] in Persian]. | ||
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