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الگوی فضایی شکلگیری خانوارهای زنسرپرست در ایران: نقش مکانیسمهای محرک و فشار | ||
زن در توسعه و سیاست | ||
دوره 21، شماره 2، تیر 1402، صفحه 275-304 اصل مقاله (1.46 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jwdp.2022.349161.1008259 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
حبیب الله صادقی1؛ فاطمه ترابی* 2 | ||
1گروه جمعیتشناسی، دانشکدۀ علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران | ||
2گروه جمعیتشناسی، دانشکدۀ علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران. | ||
چکیده | ||
در دهۀ اخیر، بهدلیل تحولات اقتصادی، اجتماعی و جمعیتی اشکال ناهمگونی از خانوارها در ایران شکلگرفته است. در این میان افزایش خانوارهای زنسرپرست یکی از تغییرات جمعیتی کشور بهحساب میآید. این مقاله با بهرهگیری از دادههای تمامشماری شهرستانی مرکز آمار ایران و با استفاده از روشهای خودهمبستگی فضایی، خوشهبندی میانگین کا و رگرسیون حداقل مربعات معمولی در چارچوب نظریههای گذار دوم جمعیتی و نابرابری، به ارزیابی نقش دو مکانیسم محرک اختیاری و فشارهای اجباری بر توزیع خانوارهای زنسرپرست در شهرستانهای کشور در سال 1395 میپردازد. نتایج خودهمبستگی فضایی نشان میدهد تمرکز بالاترین مقادیر خانوارهای زنسرپرست در جنوبشرق کشور و تمرکز پایینترین مقادیر خانوارهای زنسرپرست در شمالغرب و در امتداد خطی تا مرکز قابلمشاهده است. مدل خوشهبندی فضایی نیز مشخص کرد خانوارهای زنسرپرست در پنج خوشه قرار میگیرند که یکی از آنها تنها شامل سه شهرستان و خوشهای پرت است. سایر خوشهها عبارتاند از: 1) شهرستانهای شمالغرب، جنوب و شمالشرق و متأثر از محرکهای اقتصادی؛ 2) شهرستانهای مرکزی و شمالی و متأثر از محرکهای اجتماعی و جمعیتی؛ 3) شهرستانهای غربی و جنوبغربی و متأثر از فشارهای جمعیتی و اقتصادی؛ و 4) شهرستانهای جنوبشرق و شرق و متأثر از فشارهای اجتماعی و اقتصادی. نتایج رگرسیون حداقل مربعات معمولی نشان داد 75 درصد از نوسانات فراوانی خانوارهای زنسرپرست بهوسیلۀ متغیرهای مورد بررسی تبیین میشود. بدینترتیب اجرای سیاستهای حمایت مالی، فرهنگی و بنیادی سطح خرد با تأکید بر نقش مکانیسمهای محرک و فشار امری ضروری است. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
خانوارهای زنسرپرست؛ خوشهبندی فضایی؛ رگرسیون حداقل مربعات معمولی؛ گذار دوم جمعیتی؛ مکانیسم محرک و فشار | ||
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