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بررسی قابلیتهای رویکرد یادگیری ماشین در پیشبینی جریان سطحی روزانه با استفاده از برخی دادههای هواشناسی و شاخص تفاضلی نرمال شده برف (مطالعه موردی: حوضه آبخیز لتیان و ناورود) | ||
تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران | ||
دوره 53، شماره 5، مرداد 1401، صفحه 1127-1144 اصل مقاله (2.15 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ijswr.2022.338986.669207 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
محبوبه فلاح1؛ حسینعلی بهرامی* 1؛ حسین اسدی2 | ||
1گروه علوم و مهندسی خاک، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران | ||
2گروه علوم و مهندسی خاک، دانشکده مهندسی و فناوری کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران | ||
چکیده | ||
پیشبینی دقیق جریان سطحی برای مدیریت منابع آب به ویژه پیشبینی سیل و فرسایش خاک بسیار مهم است. در مطالعه حاضر، قابلیت سه روش یادگیری ماشین (ML) شامل رگرسیون بردار پشتیبان (SVR)، شبکه عصبی مصنوعی با پس انتشار خطا (ANN-BP) و رگرسیون تقویت گرادیان (GBR) با استفاده از دادههای هواشناسی و پوشش برف سنجنده MODIS برای پیشبینی جریان سطحی روزانه در دو حوضه مختلف لتیان و ناورود بررسی شد. برای توسعه مدل، چهار متغیر اصلی شامل باران روزانه (P)، دمای حداکثر(Tmax) ، دمای حداقل (Tmin) و شاخص تفاضلی نرمال شده برف (NDSI) از سنجنده MODIS در طول سالهای 1379-1397 استفاده شد. کارایی این مدلها با استفاده از شاخصهای آماری مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. نتایج شبیهسازی نشان داد که همه مدلها نتایج رضایتبخشی را در شبیهسازی جریان سطحی روزانه با استفاده از متغیرهای هواشناسی به عنوان پارامترهای ورودی مدلها ارائه کردند. همچنین، کارایی همه مدلهای ML مورد مطالعه، زمانی که شاخص NDSI به عنوان متغیر تخمینگر در شبیهسازی اعمال شد، بهبود یافت. بهترین کارایی را در بین تمام مدلهای مورد مطالعه در هر دو حوضه، مدل GBR نشان داد. مدل SVR پایینترین کارایی را در پیشبینی جریان سطحی روزانه برای هر دو مرحله آموزش و اعتبارسنجی در اکثر موارد نشان داد. بهطور کلی، نتایج شبیهسازی در حوضه لتیان نسبت به حوضه ناورود در هر دو مرحله آموزش و اعتبارسنجی بهتر بود و نسبت به دو مدل دیگر، بهترین کارایی در مدل GBR با ضریب همبستگی (85/0R=)، ضریب کارایی نش-ساتکلیف )72/0 (NS=و جذر میانگین مربعات خطا ( m3/s43/3(RMSE= با استفاده از شاخص NDSI در حوضه لتیان مشاهده شده است که نشاندهنده تاثیر زیاد ذوب برف در ایجاد جریان سطحی در مناطق برفخیز است. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
شبکههای عصبی مصنوعی؛ مدل یادگیری ماشین؛ شاخص تفاضلی نرمال شده برف؛ رگرسیون بردار پشتیبان | ||
مراجع | ||
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