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Dynamic Reservoir and Stochastic Oil Pricing Model of IPC Contracts: Optimizing and Sensitivity Analyzing | ||
Industrial Management Journal | ||
دوره 14، شماره 1، 2022، صفحه 143-167 اصل مقاله (608.86 K) | ||
نوع مقاله: Research Paper | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/imj.2022.328510.1007857 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
Fariborz Jolai* 1؛ Fatemeh Zamani2 | ||
1Prof., Department of Industrial Engineering, School of Industrial Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. | ||
2Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Industrial Engineering, School of Industrial Engineering, Alborz Campus, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. | ||
چکیده | ||
Objective: Iran's oil reservoirs are operated in cooperation with international oil companies under a contract titled Iran Petroleum Contract (IPC). During the life of the concluded contracts, Iran and oil companies seek to maximize the economic value as well as the value of the cash flow. In this paper, IPC was modeled and the sensitivity of parameters was illustrated. Methods: Contract financial flow was mathematically modeled considerin the physical characteristics of the oil well. This model was simulated using Matlab to evaluate the effect of different values of two parameters of production rate and wages in IPC contracts on the field production process. Results: Results show that contractors were inclined to lower production rates if the fee per barrel is not set in the proper range (3$-7$). Furthermore, for very low oil prices (under 30$) contractor is at the risk of investment and for higher prices contractor’s share saturates. Conclusion: All the parameters of the problem including contractual, reservoir, field parameters, oil price, investment costs, and operating costs play a role in the profitability of the project, and knowing contract parameters sensitivity can give Iran a clear view of negotiating the contract. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
PC contracts؛ Optimisation of Oil field؛ Dynamic behavior of reserves؛ Oil price؛ Production rate | ||
مراجع | ||
جعفرنژاد، احمد؛ یوسفی زنوز، رضا (1387). ارائه مدل فازی رتبهبندی ریسک در پروژههای حفاری شرکت پتروپارس. مدیریت صنعتی، 1(1)، 21-38.
دوست محمدی، ایمان؛ عالم تبریز، اکبر؛ راد، عباس؛ زندیه، مصطفی (1399). طراحی و تبیین مدل تخصیص منبع افزونه و بافر برای بهبود پایایی پروژهها در شرایط عدم قطعیت زمان و هزینه (مورد مطالعه: صنعت نفت و گاز). مدیریت صنعتی، 12(4)، 521-544.
عسکری، محمد مهدی؛ شیریجیان، محمد؛ طاهری فرد، علی (1394). تحلیل ساختاری مقایسه سطوح بهینه سرمایهگذاری و تولید نفت در قراردادهای بالادستی بیع متقابل مشارکت در تولید و قرارداد نفتی ایران. پژوهشنامه اقتصادی، 15(58)، 111-158.
گلابچی، محمود؛ فرجی، امیر (1394). مدل عصبی ـ فازی پشتیبان تصمیم فازهای اولیه پروژههای صنعت نفت. مدیریت صنعتی، 7(4)، 837-860.
محمدی، تیمور؛ مؤمنی، فرشاد؛ کاظمی نجف آبادی، عباس؛ بهادری، شیرکو (1395). تأثیر قراردادهای نفتی بر روند تولید نفت ایران. مطالعات اقتصاد انرژی، 12(5)، 25-52.
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