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اثر تغییر اقلیم بر پتانسیل عملکرد و بهرهوری آب ذرت علوفهای در ایران | ||
به زراعی کشاورزی | ||
مقاله 15، دوره 24، شماره 4، دی 1401، صفحه 1247-1263 اصل مقاله (850.1 K) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jci.2022.334981.2648 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
حسنا فیاضی1؛ ابراهیم زینلی* 2؛ افشین سلطانی3؛ بنیامین ترابی4 | ||
1گروه زراعت، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گرگان، ایران. رایانامه: h.fayaz222@gmail.com | ||
2نویسنده مسئول، گروه زراعت، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گرگان، ایران. رایانامه: e.zeinali@gau.ac.ir | ||
3گروه زراعت، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گرگان، ایران. رایانامه: Afshin.Soltani@gau.ac.ir | ||
4گروه زراعت، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گرگان، ایران. رایانامه: b.torabi@gau.ac.ir | ||
چکیده | ||
یکی از چالشهای مهم مرتبط با کشاورزی و امنیت غذایی، تغییر اقلیم جهانی است. پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسی تأثیر تغییر اقلیم در آینده بر عملکرد و بهرهوری آب ذرت علوفهای (Zea mays L.) در ایران انجام شد. برای پیشبینی تغییر اقلیم در آینده (2050 میلادی) از دو سناریوی RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 و از دادههای هواشناسی در سالهای 1394-1380 بهعنوان دوره مبنا استفاده شد. پتانسیل عملکرد با استفاده از مدل شبیهسازی گیاهی SSM-iCrop2 و براساس شیوهنامه گیگا برآورد شد و تغییرات اقلیمی برای هر سناریو در مدل شبیهسازی اعمال شد. نتایج نشان داد که تغییر اقلیم براساس هر دو سناریوی یادشده تأثیر قابلاعتنایی بر پتانسیل عملکرد ذرت علوفهای نسبت به شرایط فعلی نداشت و فقط موجب افزایشی معادل 9/0 و 4/1 درصد در دو سناریوی یادشده نسبت به شرایط فعلی (6/85 تن در هکتار) خواهد شد. این نتیجه را میتوان به چهارکربنهبودن این گیاه و در نتیجه عدم تأثیر افزایش CO2 بر رشد و عملکرد آن و همچنین باقیماندن دما در دامنه دماهای بهینه در بیشتر مناطق اقلیمی اصلی تولید ذرت علوفهای در ایران نسبت داد. میزان بهرهوری آب نیز در هر دو سناریو به میزان 4/0 و 6/1 درصد نسبت به شرایط فعلی (4/10 کیلوگرم بر مترمکعب) افزایش مییابد که دلیل احتمالی آن افزایش غلظت CO2 و بستهترشدن روزنهها میباشد. همچنین، بهدلیل آنکه تغییر چندانی در میزان آب مصرفی و تبخیر و تعرق مشاهده نشد میتوان افزایش بهرهوری آب در ذرت علوفهای را به افزایش پتانسیل عملکرد نسبت داد. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
پروتکل گیگا؛ دما؛ شبیه سازی عملکرد؛ مدل SSM-iCrop2؛ مناطق اقلیمی | ||
مراجع | ||
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