پیوندهای مفید
اخبار و اعلانات
آمار
| تعداد نشریات | 158 |
| تعداد شمارهها | 6,236 |
| تعداد مقالات | 67,810 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 115,290,939 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 90,035,118 |
Inflow and Outflow of Oil Revenues: Scenarios for National Development Fund of Iran (NDFI) | ||
| Iranian Economic Review | ||
| دوره 25، شماره 4، اسفند 2021، صفحه 655-675 اصل مقاله (1.24 M) | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ier.2021.85081 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Seyed Hossein Mirjalili* ؛ Salim Karimzadeh | ||
| Faculty of Economics, Institute for Humanity and Cultural Studies, Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده | ||
| Resource-rich developing countries are forced by economic fluctuations due to international commodity price movement. One way to reduce the volatility adverse effects is to establish institutions such as Sovereign Wealth Fund. However, the way this fund is managed is important. Iran, as a resource-rich developing country, suffers from economic fluctuations. To manage resource revenues, National Development Fund (NDF) has been established. In this paper, using DSGE model, we examined different scenarios for managing fund resources. A scenario, without any stabilizer Fund and two different scenarios for National Development Fund. In the second scenario, NDF has a role like the one in Sixth Development Plan. In the third scenario, all oil revenues are deposited to NDF and a part of the fund as much as interest rate in the OECD countries plus 70% of long-run oil revenues invested in the economy. The Results indicated that the management of oil revenues by the Fund, in which the inflow of oil revenues into the economy follows the commitment, is an appropriate policy to reduce the economic fluctuations in Iran. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| Economic Fluctuations؛ Fiscal Policy؛ DSGE؛ Iranian Economy؛ Macroeconomics؛ National Development Fund (NDF)؛ Oil Revenue | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., Robinson, J. A., & Thaicharoen, Y. (2003). Institutional Causes Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Crises, and Growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 50, 49-123.
Acemoglu, D., Robinson, J. A., & Johnson, S. (2004). Institutions, Volatility, and Crises. NBER Chapters, in Growth and Productivity in East Asia, 71-108.
Auty, R. M. (2001). Resource Abundance and Economic Development. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Barkhordar, Z., & Saboohi, Y. (2013). Assessing Alternative Options for Allocating Oil Revenue in Iran. Energy Policy, 63, 1207-1216.
Behboudi, D. (2008). The Role of the Exchange Reserve Account in the Stability of Government’s Revenues in Iran (Using a CGE Model). Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi), 43(1), 23-52 (in Persian).
Bernabe, L. M., Leal, J., & Fritscher, A. M. )2019(. Commodity Price Risk Management and Fiscal Policy in a Sovereign Default Model. Journal of International Money and Finance, 96(C), 304-323.
Brunnschweiler, C. N., & Bulte, E. H. (2008). The Resource Curse Revisited and Revised: A Tale of Paradoxes and Red Herrings. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 55(3), 248-264.
Butt, S., Shivdasani, A., Stendevad, C., & Wyman, A. (2008). Sovereign Wealth Funds: A Growing Global Force in Corporate Finance. Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 20(1), 73–83.
Cherif, R., & Hasanov, F. (2013). Oil Exporters’ Dilemma: How Much to Save and How Much to Invest. World Development, Elsevier, 52(C), 120-131.
Eifert, B., Gelb, A., & Borje Tallroth, N. (2002). The Political Economy of Fiscal Policy and Economic Management in Oil Exporting Countries. Policy, Research Working Paper, WPS 2899, Retrieved from https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/19225/multi0page.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
Eldredge, C. D. (2019). Capability and Need: A Framework for Understanding Why States Create Sovereign Wealth Funds. The World Economy, 42(5), 1495–1519.
Gylfason, T. (2001). Nature, Power, and Growth. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, 48(5), 558-588.
Hojjati Najafabadi, A. (2015). Measuring the Welfare Effect of Oil Oil Volatility in Situations of Non-Aligned Monetary Policy (Unpublished Master's Thesis). Sharif University of Technology, Iran (in Persian).
Hosseinzadeh Yousefabad, S. M., Mehrara, M., & Tavakoliyan, H. (2018). The Role of the National Development Fund in Reducing Iran's Economic Fluctuations Approach (DSGE). Journal of Financial Economics, 11(41), 1-42 (in Persian).
Lane, P. R., & Tornell, A. (1996). Power, Growth, and the Voracity Effect. Journal of Economic Growth, 1, 213-241.
Lucas, R. E. J. (1988). On the Mechanics of Economic Development. Journal of Monetary Economics, XXII, 3–42.
Madanizadeh, S. A., & Ebrahimian, M. (2018) Designing and Calibrating a Core General Equilibrium Macro Model for Iran’s Economy. Journal of Economic Research and Policies, 25(84), 7-42 (in Persian).
Mankiw, N. G. (2015). Macroeconomics (9th). London: Worth Publisher.
Mohaddes, K., & Raissi, M. (2017). Do Sovereign Wealth Funds Mitigate the Negative Effects of Commodity Price Volatility? Journal of Commodity Markets, 8, 18-27.
Pieschacón, A. (2009). Oil Booms and Their Impact through Fiscal Policy. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/241174301_Oil_Booms_and_Their_Impact_Through_Fiscal_Policy
Sachs, J. D., & Warner, A. M. (2001). The curse of natural resources. European Economic Review, 45(4-6), 827-838.
---------- (1997). The Big Rush, Natural Resource Booms, and Growth. Journal of Development Economics, 59, 43-76.
Seyed Momeni, A. S. (2016). A Study and Comparison of the Disease of the Dutch Disease in Iran's Economy in Two Periods of Oil Prices (Unpublished Master's Thesis). Sharif University of Technology, Iran (in Persian).
Stiglitz, J. E., & Walsh, C. E. (2006). Economics (4th Ed). New York: W.W. Norton & Company.
Van der Ploeg, F. (2019). Macro-Policy Responses to Natural Resource Windfalls and Crashes in Commodity Prices. Journal of International Money and Finance, 96, 263-282.
Youssef, H., Elbadawi, I., & Soto, R. (2018). Sovereign Wealth Funds and Macroeconomic Stabilization in the Home Economy. Working Paper, 1175, Retrieved from http://erf.org.eg/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/1175_Final.pdf
Zamanzadeh, H., Jalali Naeini, S. A., & Shadrokh, M. (2014). Dutch Disease Propagation Mechanism in the Iranian Economy: A DSGE Approach. Journal of Monetary & Banking Research, 7(19), 69-101 (in Persian). | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 448 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 347 |
||