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تحلیل پایداری روابط انرژی روسیه و اتحادیۀ اروپا پس از بحران اوکراین از دیدگاه نظریۀ وابستگی متقابل | ||
مطالعات اوراسیای مرکزی | ||
دوره 14، شماره 1، شهریور 1400، صفحه 177-201 اصل مقاله (305.08 K) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jcep.2020.280927.449842 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
علی صباغیان* 1؛ رویا رسولی2 | ||
1استادیار مطالعات منطقهای، دانشگاه تهران | ||
2دانشجوی دکتری مطالعات منطقهای، دانشگاه تهران | ||
چکیده | ||
بیتردید در قرن جدید، انرژی برای بقایِ همۀ کشورها حیاتی است و تأمین باثبات و ارزان قیمت آن به یکی از مهمترین دغدغههای کشورها و اقتصادهای جهانی تبدیلشده است. انرژی و نقش بیبدیل آن در رقابتهای ژئوپلیتیکی، نوعی تقسیمبندی جهانی میان کشورها را شکل داده است: 1.کشورهای صادرکنندۀ انرژی، 2. کشورهای واردکنندۀ انرژی 3. کشورهای انتقالدهندۀ انرژی که اقدامها و رفتارهای هر یک از آنها برای دستیابی به منافع بیشتر، سازنده و قوامبخش ژئوپلیتیک انرژی جهانی است. در این نوشتار بهدنبال بررسی و ارزیابی کنشها، واکنشها و رفتارهای روسیه بهعنوان صادرکنندۀ انرژی و اتحادیۀ اروپا بهعنوان واردکنندۀ انرژی پس از بحران اوکراین بهعنوان انتقالدهندۀ انرژی هستیم. با روش توصیفی در پی پاسخ این پرسش هستیم که متغیر انرژی چه نقشی در روابط روسیه و اتحادیۀ اروپا پس از بحران اوکراین داشته است؟ در پاسخ این پرسش میتوان گفت، بهنظر میرسد که با وجود تیرگیهای ایجادشده در روابط سیاسی، امنیتی و اقتصادی میان روسیه و اتحادیۀ اروپا، متغیر انرژی مانع قطع این روابط شده و به استمرار روابط این دو بازیگر کمک کرده است. نتایج توصیف و تحلیل شرایط، حاکی از وجود نوعی وابستگی متقابل فزاینده میان آنها دستکم تا یک دهۀ آینده بهویژه در بخش گاز است. این موضوع بیشتر مربوط به وابستگی گازپروم به بازار اروپا، مشکل فنی جایگزینی واردات گاز روسیه برای اتحادیۀ اروپا و قراردادهای طولانیمدت تا سال 2030 است که جریمههای بسیار سنگینی برای طرفهایی دارد که میخواهند آن را پیش از پایان دورۀ قرارداد فسخ کنند. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
اتحادیۀ اروپا؛ امنیت انرژی؛ بحران اوکراین؛ روسیه؛ گازپروم | ||
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