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شناسایی مهمترین متغیرهای محیطی در پیشبینی مکانی مناطق مستعد سیلگیری با استفاده از مدل بیشینه آنتروپی در بخشی از استان گلستان | ||
تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران | ||
دوره 52، شماره 4، تیر 1400، صفحه 899-915 اصل مقاله (1.8 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ijswr.2021.316143.668851 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
احسان مرادی1؛ احمد رجبی* 2؛ سعید شعبانلو3؛ فریبرز یوسفوند4 | ||
1دانشجوی دکتری منابع آب، گروه مهندسی آب، واحد کرمانشاه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرمانشاه، ایران | ||
2گروه مهندسی آب، واحد کرمانشاه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرمانشاه، ایران | ||
3دانشیار گروه مهندسی آب، واحد کرمانشاه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی | ||
4گروه مهندسی آب، واحد کرمانشاه، دانشگاه ازاد اسلامی، کرمانشاه | ||
چکیده | ||
سیل یک بلای طبیعی مخرب طی سالهای گذشته بوده است. در پژوهش حاضر به منظور مدلسازی و تهیه نقشهی مکانی مناطق مستعد سیلگیری حوزه آبخیز سالیانتپه واقع در استان گلستان با مساحت 47/4515 کیلومتر مربع، از مدل بیشینه آنتروپی که یکی از مدلهای پیشرفته دادهکاوی است استفاده شده است. بدین منظور در ابتدا براساس گزارشهای موجود و بررسیهای میدانی نقشه پراکنش سیل تهیه گردید. در ادامه سیزده متغیر اثرگذار به عنوان عوامل پیشبینی کننده شامل طبقات ارتفاعی، درصد شیب، جهت شیب، بارندگی، فاصله از شبکه زهکشی، کاربری اراضی، سنگ شناسی، بافت خاک، انحنای طرح، انحنای پروفیل، شاخص رطوبت توپوگرافی، تراکم زهکشی و شاخص توان جریان، شناسایی و به مدل معرفی شدند. سپس سه سری متفاوت از نقاط وقوع خطر سیل (ds1, ds2, ds3) شامل 70 درصد برای آموزش و 30 درصد برای اعتبار سنجی مدل به صورت تصادفی آماده گردید، تا دقت و صداقت[1] مدل براساس شاخص ROC مورد ارزیابی قرار گیرد. نتایج نشان داد که مدل بیشینه آنتروپی با دقت عالی (بالای 90 درصد) مناطق مستعد سیلگیری را پیش بینی نموده است. همچنین در این تحقیق درجه اهمیت متغیرها توسط مدل مورد بررسی قرار گرفت و نتایج نشان داد که دو عامل تراکم زهکشی (حدود 49درصد اهمیت) و فاصله از جریان (حدود 15درصد اهمیت) بهعنوان مهمترین عوامل محیطی مؤثر بر سیلگیری منطقه مورد مطالعه، شناسایی شدند. [1] robustness | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
حوزه آبخیز سالیانتپه؛ ربوستنس(صداقت مدل)؛ شاخص ROC؛ عوامل پیشبینی کننده سیلاب؛ مدل داده کاوی | ||
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