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عوامل موثر بر آلودگی هوای ایجاد شده در بخش حمل و نقل استانهای ایران
|مقاله 6، دوره 45، شماره 1، خرداد 1398، صفحه 77-86 اصل مقاله (321.69 K)|
|نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی|
|شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jes.2019.263277.1007714|
|مجید مداح* 1؛ عبدالنظام جعفری2|
|1گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اداری، دانشگاه سمنان، سمنان، ایران|
|2دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اداری، دانشگاه سمنان، سمنان، ایران|
|بخش حمل و نقل، یکی از منابع مهم آلودگی در سطح کشور است. طبق آمارهای موجود طی سالهای1389 تا 1393، 61/23 درصد از انتشار دی اکسید کربن در ایران توسط بخش حمل و نقل ایجاد شده است. در این مقاله با کاربرد الگوی دادههای تابلویی طی سالهای 1389 تا 1393 عوامل مؤثر بر آلودگی ایجاد شده در بخش حمل و نقل استانهای ایران مورد بررسی و تحلیل قرار میگیرد. نتایج حاصل از تخمین مدل نشان میدهد ارزش افزوده هر یک از بخشهای اقتصادی کشور و تعداد وسایل نقلیه شماره گذاری شده دارای اثر مثبت و معنیداری بر آلودگی هستند. بر این اساس، یک درصد افزایش در ارزش افزوده سرانه در بخشهای کشاورزی ، صنعت و معدن و خدمات به ترتیب باعث افزایش 11/0%، 08/0 % و 12/0 % در میزان تولید دی اکسید کربن استانها در بخش حمل و نقل میشود. همچنین افزایش یک درصدی در تعداد وسایل نقلیه شماره گذاری شده نیز موجب افزایش 049/0 درصدی میزان انتشار دی اکسید کربن در بخش حمل و نقل استانها شده است. با توجه به نتایج حاصله، پیشنهادات کاربردی نیز به منظور کاهش آلودگی هوای استانی ناشی از بخش حمل و نقل ارائه گردید.|
|حمل و نقل؛ آلودگی هوا؛ استانهای ایران؛ الگوی دادههای تابلوی؛ محیط زیست|
|عنوان مقاله [English]|
|Factors Affecting Air Pollution Created in the Transportation Sector of Iranian Provinces|
|majid maddah1؛ abdolnezam jafari2|
|1Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Administrative Sciences, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran|
|2PhD student of economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Administrative Sciences, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran|
The geographical and climatic characteristics of Iran in utilizing transport infrastructure requires special attention to the issue of environmental pollution and greenhouse gases emitted by conventional transportation activities and, if necessary, specific measures to control pollution Air created in this section. Considering the significant contribution of transportation pollution in total contamination and taking into account the social costs resulting from it, as well as considering the negative effects of pollution on economic growth, health expenditure of households and the health of citizens and the high linkage of sector activities Transportation with activities of other sectors, investigation and research on the factors affecting the amount of pollution in this part is important and necessary. The service sector provides a demand-driven demand for many of the products of society that play a significant role in gross domestic product formation, such as mineral products, commercial and tourism activities. Given the direct effect of the transport sector's activities on the environment and air pollution, the development of other economic sectors could increase environmental pollution. According to the statistical reports in the energy charts published by the Ministry of Energy over the years, carbon dioxide gas has been the largest contributor to pollutant and greenhouse emissions in Iran during the study period. The share of carbon dioxide emissions in the transport sector (including road, air, sea and rail), compared with other sectors, including household, commercial and public sectors, agriculture, refineries and power plants, during the same period The average was 23.61%.
Despite the various studies carried out in the field of air pollution, no study has ever been done on the factors affecting pollution in the provincial transport sector in Iran.
Matherials & Methods
In the literature of the research, the panel data model (combination of time series and cross-sectional data) is used to investigate the effect of factors affecting transportation pollution in the provinces of the country. Among the information research variables, carbon dioxide emissions are not available in the province, but according to published statistics on the rate of use of fuel and oil products of the provinces in the annual energy balance sheets and based on the standard announced by the inter-agency State of Climate Change (IPCC) In 2013, carbon dioxide emissions in the transport sector were calculated for provinces around the country between 2010 and 2015. Other data are also extracted from library resources.
Discussion of Results
Regarding the use of logarithmic data at the model's estimation stage, estimation coefficients are interpreted as the elasticity of pollution in the transportation sector relative to each of the explanatory variables. Accordingly, during the reviewed period, the interconnection between production in the economic sectors and the transport sector is confirmed. In fact, with the increase in production, transportation services are expanding, in this context, the lack of proper and standard facilities in the transport sector will lead to further pollution. According to the research results, an increase of 1% in the number of numbered vehicles also resulted in an increase of 0.49% in carbon dioxide emissions in the transport sector of the provinces on average. This finding confirms the role of polluting vehicles that are often produced internally. Comparison of the estimated elasticity marks indicates that the pull of the pollution per capita value added service is more than its elasticity over other sectors. This result seems to be due to the greater share of the service sector's activities in creating the value added of the entire country and the significant difference in this share in relation to the value added of other sectors. Also, a one percent increase in carbon dioxide emissions with a one-year lag in the transport sector has had a positive and significant effect of 0.8% on carbon dioxide emissions in the transport sector this year during the period under review.
In this paper, the effect of factors affecting pollution in the transportation sector of the country using provincial statistics in the framework of an econometric model of data panel during the period of 2015-2010 was investigated and the results of which, while conforming to theoretical foundations, with the result of other Studies in this area are also aligned.
The results of the research showed that the number of numbered vehicles, the per capita value added of services, which includes transportation activities, added value of agricultural and industrial and mining sectors had a positive and significant effect on There are contaminants created in the transportation sector of the country's provinces. The positive effect of vehicles on transport pollution indicates the contamination of vehicles used by citizens, and the positive and significant effect of economic value added on transport pollution contributes to the direct relationship between production and pollution, which is the finding corresponds to the first region of the Kuznets curve. In fact, it can be said that the increase of provincial production, although increasing provincial income facilities and causing economic growth and development, but social costs increase the pollution of the economy of the provinces, which this problem It can reduce social welfare while introducing environmental damages. Accordingly, it is necessary to address the policy of decreasing air pollution through tools such as improving production efficiency, observing the standards required in the production of various economic sectors, and accurate monitoring of the state on the activities of enterprises and the stopping of the firm's activity Contaminating and violating environmental regulations should be considered by provincial authorities. At the end, there are also suggestions for reducing pollution of the provincial air.
|Transportation, Air pollution, Iranian Provinces, Panel Data Model, environment|
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