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نوروزی, حسین, حسینی, سید صفدر, انصاری, وحیده. (1397). بررسی آثار متغیر‌های کلان اقتصادی و سیاست حمایتی بر رشد بخش کشاورزی در ایران. , 49(4), 587-605. doi: 10.22059/ijaedr.2018.244481.668508
حسین نوروزی; سید صفدر حسینی; وحیده انصاری. "بررسی آثار متغیر‌های کلان اقتصادی و سیاست حمایتی بر رشد بخش کشاورزی در ایران". , 49, 4, 1397, 587-605. doi: 10.22059/ijaedr.2018.244481.668508
نوروزی, حسین, حسینی, سید صفدر, انصاری, وحیده. (1397). 'بررسی آثار متغیر‌های کلان اقتصادی و سیاست حمایتی بر رشد بخش کشاورزی در ایران', , 49(4), pp. 587-605. doi: 10.22059/ijaedr.2018.244481.668508
نوروزی, حسین, حسینی, سید صفدر, انصاری, وحیده. بررسی آثار متغیر‌های کلان اقتصادی و سیاست حمایتی بر رشد بخش کشاورزی در ایران. , 1397; 49(4): 587-605. doi: 10.22059/ijaedr.2018.244481.668508

بررسی آثار متغیر‌های کلان اقتصادی و سیاست حمایتی بر رشد بخش کشاورزی در ایران

تحقیقات اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی ایران
مقاله 3، دوره 49، شماره 4، دی 1397، صفحه 587-605    اصل مقاله (902.31 K)
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ijaedr.2018.244481.668508
نویسندگان
حسین نوروزی1؛ سید صفدر حسینی* 2؛ وحیده انصاری3
1دانشجوی دکتری، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران
2استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران
3استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران
چکیده
رشد بخش کشاورزی به عنوان بستری برای کسب اهداف توسعه در کشورهای در حال توسعه امری ضروری قلمداد می‌شود. با توجه به اهمیت بخش کشاورزی و همچنین ماهیت مخاطره‌آمیز تولید، فسادپذیری و سایر اهداف، حمایت از بخش کشاورزی همیشه مورد توجه دولت‌ها بوده است. در این پژوهش آثار متغیر‌های کلان اقتصادی و سیاست حمایتی بر رشد بخش کشاورزی مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. در این راستا عامل‌های مؤثر بر ارزش افزوده، تشکیل سرمایه ناخالص، صادرات و واردات بخش کشاورزی با استفاده از الگوی حداقل مربعات سه مرحله‌ای به صورت یک سیستم معادلات هم‌زمان چهار معادله‌ای در دوره 1394-1360 بررسی گردید. متغیرهای نسبت سرمایه به نیروی‌کار، حمایت از تولیدکننده، حمایت از مصرف‌کننده، صادرات فرآورده‌های کشاورزی، وقفه ‌ارزش افزوده بر ارزش افزوده بخش به ترتیب با ضرایب  111/0، 021/0، 008/0، 156/0، 488/0 اثر مثبت و معنی‌دار داشتند. همچنین متغیر واردات با ضریب 120/0- اثر معنی‌دار و منفی بر ارزش افزوده بخش کشاورزی دارد. عامل‌های مؤثر بر صادرات، واردات و تشکیل سرمایه ناخالص بخش کشاورزی، تصریح گردیند. نتایج نشان داد که سیاست حمایتی بر بخش، کارآیی لازم را نداشته و لزوم توجه برنامه‌ریزان و سیاستگذاران به میزان و نحوه تخصیص حمایت‌ها را بیش از پیش ضروری نشان می‌دهد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
ارزش‌افزوده؛ تشکیل سرمایه؛ صادرات؛ واردات؛ حداقل مربعات سه مرحله‌ای
عنوان مقاله [English]
Investigating The Effects of Macroeconomic Variables and Support Policy on the Growth of the Agricultural Sector in Iran
نویسندگان [English]
Hosein Norozi1؛ seied safdar Hoseini2؛ vahideh ansari3
1PhD. Student, Department of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
2Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
3Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
چکیده [English]
The growth of the agricultural sector is considered essential as a substrate for achieving the development goals in developing countries. According the importance of agriculture as well as the risky nature of production, corruption and other purposes, the government have always supported the agricultural sector. This study investigates the effects of macroeconomic variables and policy support on the growth of the agricultural sector in Iran. In this context, factors affecting the value added of the agricultural sector, gross capital formation, exports and imports of agricultural sector were investigated using a three-stage least squares model as a system of simultaneous equations with four equations during the period 1981-2015. The variables of capital-to-labor ratio, producer support, consumer support, exports of agricultural products, and value added lags with coefficients of 0.488, 0.156, 0.008, 0.021 and 0.111, respectively, showed a significantly positive effect on the value added of agriculture. Also, the variable of imports of agricultural products with a coefficient of -0.120 showed a negative and significant effect on the value added of agricultural sector. Factors affecting export, import and gross capital formation of agricultural sector were explained. The results showed that the support policy on the agricultural sector is not of adequate efficiency and it is necessary, for planners and policymakers, to point out the extent and the way of allocating supports more appropriately.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
Value Added, Capital formation, Exports, Imports, Three-stage least square
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