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ارزیابی مدل هیدرولوژیکی HEC-HMS در تخمین هیدروگراف سیل مناطق خشک و مرطوب | ||
اکوهیدرولوژی | ||
مقاله 26، دوره 5، شماره 1، فروردین 1397، صفحه 319-330 اصل مقاله (786.26 K) | ||
نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ije.2018.240802.715 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
حسین یوسفی* 1؛ محمد گلشن2؛ عبدالله پیرنیا2 | ||
1استادیار دانشکدۀ علوم و فنون نوین دانشگاه تهران | ||
2دانشجوی دکتری آبخیزداری، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری | ||
چکیده | ||
برای مدیریت مناسب رویدادهای طبیعی مانند سیل، استفاده از مدلهای کامپیوتری بهطور سریع در حال توسعه است و این مدلها ابزارهای ضروری برای فهم انسان از فرایندهای هیدرولوژیکی حوضۀ آبخیز و مدیریت آن هستند. در این تحقیق با هدف مدیریت مناسب سیل مناطق خشک و مرطوب کارایی مدل HEC-HMS برای شبیهسازی وقایع مختلف سیل بررسی شد. به اینمنظور سه واقعۀ سیل در حوضۀ آبخیز کسیلیان با مساحت 8/67 کیلومترمربع با اقلیم مرطوب و سه واقعۀ سیل در حوضۀ آبخیز کارده با مساحت 2/93 کیلومترمربع با اقلیم کاملاً خشک در نظر گرفته شد. دادههای هیتوگراف بارش بر پایۀ گام زمانی دقیقهای و دادههای هیدروگراف سیل مربوط به هر واقعه به مدل وارد شدند. سپس، تخمین هیدروگراف سیل بر پایۀ گام زمانی 30 دقیقهای انجام شد. آنالیز حساسیت پارامترها با استفاده از روش آزمون و خطا نشان داد پارامتر CN نسبت به سایر پارامترها حساسیت زیادی دارد و این حساسیت در منطقۀ خشک نسبت به منطقۀ مرطوب بیشتر است. نمایههای آماری ضریب همبستگی (R2)، ضریب نش- ساتکلیف (NS) و مجموع مربعات خطا (CP) بر حسب مترمکعب بر ثانیه برای ارزیابی کارایی مدل استفاده شد. مقادیر این نمایهها در حوضۀ آبخیز کسیلیان برای سیلابهای شبیهسازیشده بهترتیب بین 84/0 تا 93/0، 78/0 تا 81/0 و 13/96 تا 188 و در حوضۀ آبخیز کارده مقادیر این نمایهها بهترتیب بین 76/0 تا 89/0، 71/0 تا 75/0و 4/113 تا 7/216 بهدست آمد. نتایج نشان میدهد مدل HEC-HMS در هر دو حوضۀ آبخیز دقت مناسبی دارند و در حوضۀ آبخیز منطقۀ مرطوب نسبت به منطقۀ خشک کارایی این مدل برای مدیریت وقایع سیل نسبتاً بیشتر است. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
سیلاب؛ شبیهسازی؛ هیدروگراف؛ کارده؛ کسیلیان | ||
مراجع | ||
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