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بررسی تغییرات تبخیر و تعرق مرجع طی سدهی بیست و یکم در برخی مناطق نیمه خشک ایران | ||
تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران | ||
مقاله 2، دوره 48، شماره 2، مرداد 1396، صفحه 241-252 اصل مقاله (790.4 K) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ijswr.2017.62578 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
میلاد نوری1؛ مهدی همایی* 2؛ محمد بنایان3 | ||
1داشجو دکتری | ||
2هیات علمی / دانشگاه تربیت مدرس | ||
3استاد | ||
چکیده | ||
در این مطالعه، روند تغییرات تبخیر و تعرق مرجع (ET0) و عوامل کنترلکننده آن طی دورههای 1966-2100 در شش ایستگاه سینوپتیک غربی کشور مطالعه شد. بدین منظور خروجیهای مدل اقلیمی HadCM3 تحت سناریوی انتشار B2 توسط مدل SDSM ریزمقیاس سازی شد. نتایج این پژوهش نشان داد که در سه دوره 30 ساله ابتدایی، میانی و انتهایی قرن 21، ET0 (میانگین تمامی ایستگاهها) به ترتیب 12/5، 33/7 و 01/11 درصد نسبت به دوره پایه (1966-1990) افزایش خواهد یافت. بر مبنای نتایج آزمون روندیابی من-کندال، روند ET0 طی 1966-2010 در اکثر ایستگاهها بهطور غیر معنیداری (در سطح 95 درصد) صعودی بوده است. روند افزایشی ET0 در گذشته احتمالاً بهدلیل روند صعودی شدت تشعشع خورشیدی و دما و روند نزولی رطوبت نسبی در منطقه بوده است. همچنین در اغلب ایستگاهها، روند صعودی میانگین ET0 در دورههای 2011-2040 و 2071-2100 معنیدار و در 2041-2070 غیر معنیدار خواهد بود. روند افزایشی ET0 در آینده احتمالاً بهدلیل افزایش دما میباشد. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
تبخیر و تعرق مرجع؛ تغییر اقلیم؛ ریزمقیاس سازی آماری؛ SDSM | ||
مراجع | ||
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