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آنالیز عددی عوامل مؤثر در رخداد زمینلغزش و پهنهبندی حساسیت آن با روشهای رگرسیون لجستیک و رگرسیون چندمتغیره خطی (مطالعه موردی: حوضه ماربر) | ||
نشریه علمی - پژوهشی مرتع و آبخیزداری | ||
مقاله 12، دوره 70، شماره 1، خرداد 1396، صفحه 151-168 اصل مقاله (2.25 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jrwm.2017.61973 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
علیرضا عرب عامری* 1؛ کورش شیرانی2؛ مهدی تازه3 | ||
1دانشجوی دکتری ژئومورفولوژی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران. | ||
2استادیار مرکز تحقیقات کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی استان اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران. | ||
3استادیار دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه اردکان، یزد، ایران. | ||
چکیده | ||
هدف از این پژوهش شناسایی عوامل مؤثر در رخداد زمینلغزش و پهنهبندی حساسیت آن با استفاده از روشهای رگرسیون لجستیک و رگرسیون چند متغیره خطی است. بدین منظور در ابتدا با استفاده از تفسیر عکسهای هوایی با مقیاس 1:40000، نقشههای توپوگرافی، زمینشناسی و عملیات میدانی با استفاده از GPS، نقشه پراکنش زمینلغزشها بهصورت سطح بهعنوان متغیر وابسته تهیه گردید. برای تعیین عوامل مؤثر در رخداد زمینلغزش از آنالیز مقادیر عددی پارامترها با روش ماشینهای بردار پشتیبان در محیط نرمافزار Rapid Miner استفاده گردید و از ۲۱ لایه اطلاعاتی انتخابی، ۱۵ لایه اطلاعاتی انتخاب و جهت تهیه نقشه پهنهبندی بهعنوان متغیر مستقل در محیط ArcGIS 10.1 تهیه و رقومی گردیدند. پس از وزن دهی به لایهها، نقشه پهنهبندی با استفاده از روشهای انتخابی در ۵ کلاس خیلی کم، کم، متوسط، زیاد و خیلی زیاد تهیه گردید. نتایج وزن دهی لایهها نشان داد که در هر دو روش، کاربری اراضی و جهت شیب بیشترین تأثیر را در وقوع زمینلغزش داشتهاند. منحنی ROC و مساحت زیر منحنی (AUC) برای نقشههای پهنهبندی ترسیم و از AUC برای صحت سنجی استفاده گردید و مقادیر حاصل از آن نشان داد که مدل چند متغیره خطی ( ۸۹۰/۰) دارای کارایی بالاتری نسبت به مدل لجستیک (۸۲۹/۰) جهت پهنهبندی خطر زمینلغزش است. بر اساس نتایج مدل برتر (چند متغیره خطی)، ۱/۱۶۰۴۶ هکتار (۱۳/۲۰ درصد) از منطقه در رده خطر زیاد و ۲/۱۵۶۷۱ هکتار (۶۶/۱۹ درصد) از منطقه در رده خطر خیلی زیاد قرار گرفته است. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
آنالیز عددی؛ پهنهبندی؛ رگرسیون چند متغیره؛ زمینلغزش؛ رگرسیون لجستیک | ||
مراجع | ||
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