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Abbasinejad, Hossein, Abrishami, Hamid, Kavand, Hossein. (1385). Trend Break or Unit Root in GDP of Iran. , 12(18), 1-28. doi: 10.22059/ier.2007.31000
Hossein Abbasinejad; Hamid Abrishami; Hossein Kavand. "Trend Break or Unit Root in GDP of Iran". , 12, 18, 1385, 1-28. doi: 10.22059/ier.2007.31000
Abbasinejad, Hossein, Abrishami, Hamid, Kavand, Hossein. (1385). 'Trend Break or Unit Root in GDP of Iran', , 12(18), pp. 1-28. doi: 10.22059/ier.2007.31000
Abbasinejad, Hossein, Abrishami, Hamid, Kavand, Hossein. Trend Break or Unit Root in GDP of Iran. , 1385; 12(18): 1-28. doi: 10.22059/ier.2007.31000

Trend Break or Unit Root in GDP of Iran

Iranian Economic Review
مقاله 1، دوره 12، شماره 18، فروردین 2007، صفحه 1-28    اصل مقاله (517.5 K)
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ier.2007.31000
نویسندگان
Hossein Abbasinejad* ؛ Hamid Abrishami؛ Hossein Kavand
Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده
It has been suggested that existing estimates of the long-run impact of a surprise move in income may have a substantial upward bias due to the presence of a trend break in 1970s (1350s) and 1980s (1360s) gross domestic product (contained oil) data of Iran. This article shows that the statistical evidence does not warrant abandoning the no-trend-break null hypothesis at the 5% significance level. A key part of the argument is that conventionally computed p values overstate the likelihood of the trend-break alternative hypothesis. This is because they do not take into account that, in practice, the data is chosen based on pretest examination of the data.
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