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هزینههای فناوری، افزایش انرژیهای تجدیدپذیر، نوآوری و انتشار دیاکسید کربن در آسیای مرکزی و جنوب قفقاز | ||
| مطالعات کشورها | ||
| مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 23 تیر 1405 اصل مقاله (858.02 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jcountst.2026.414264.1529 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| امیرمحمد اسماعیلی کورانی* 1؛ اوتابک کاسیموف1؛ میرزوهیدجون محمدعلیاف2؛ قاضیخان موساخانوف3 | ||
| 1گروه اقتصاد و کسبوکار بینالملل، دانشکدة اقتصاد و مدیریت کسبوکار، دانشگاه سگد، سگد، مجارستان. | ||
| 2گروه اقتصاد و املاک و مستغلات، دانشگاه معماری و مهندسی تاشکند، تاشکند، ازبکستان. | ||
| 3گروه گردشگری و هتلداری، دانشگاه دولتی اقتصاد تاشکند، تاشکند، ازبکستان. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| در این مقاله، رابطة بین هزینههای فناوری، تولید انرژیهای تجدیدپذیر، تحقیق و توسعه (R&D) و انتشار دیاکسید کربن (CO2) در هشت کشور آسیای مرکزی و جنوب قفقاز طی دورة 2000 تا 2024م بررسی شده است. این پژوهش بر پایة 200 مشاهده در قالب دادههای پانلی متوازن انجام شد. برای تحلیل این دادهها، از الگوی خودبرازش با وقفههای توزیعی-میانگین گروهی تجمیعشده (ARDL-PMG) و حداقل مربعات معمولی کاملاً اصلاحشده (FMOLS) استفاده شد. در این تحلیل، شاخص ترکیبی برای هزینههای فناوری همراه با متغیرهای تولید برق تجدیدپذیر، هزینههای تحقیق و توسعه، درجة بازبودن تجاری، تولید ناخالص داخلی (GDP) سرانه و شهرنشینی وارد مدل شد. شاخص ترکیبی برای هزینههای فناوری با بهرهگیری از تحلیل مؤلفههای اصلی (PCA) و بر اساس هزینههای فناوریهای خورشیدی و بادی ساخته شد. پیش از استنتاج نتایج، مجموعهای از آزمونهای تشخیصی جامع- شامل آزمونهای ریشة واحد پانلی و ارزیابی همانباشتگی- همچنین آزمونهای متعدد برای بررسی وابستگی مقطعی، خودهمبستگی سریالی و ناهمسانی واریانس، بهمنظور تأیید استواری و اعتبار مدل اجرا شد. نتایج نشان داد شاخص هزینههای فناوری اثر مثبت و معناداری دارد؛ بدین معنا که که کاهش هزینة فناوریهای تجدیدپذیر با کاهش انتشار آلایندهها همراه است. همچنین، تولید برق از منابع تجدیدپذیر در بلندمدت بر انتشار دیاکسید کربن اثر منفی و در خور توجهی دارد. در نتیجه، همسو با فرضیة جانشینی است. همچنین، افزایش هزینههای تحقیق و توسعه نیز به کاهش انتشار دیاکسید کربن کمک میکند. بهطور کلی، یافتههای پژوهش حاکی از آن است که افزایش بهرهگیری از انرژیهای تجدیدپذیر و تداوم کاهش هزینههای فناوری، ابزارهای سیاستی مؤثری برای کاهش انتشار آلایندهها در این اقتصادهای در حال گذار است. ازاینرو، برای کاهش مؤثر انتشار دیاکسید کربن، اتخاذ سیاستهایی برای توسعة انرژیهای تجدیدپذیر، تنوعبخشی به تجارت و تقویت نوآوری فناورانه ضروری است. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| الگوی برازش با وقفههای توزیعی-میانگین گروهی تجمعیشده (ARDL-PMG)؛ انتشار دیاکسید کربن؛ انرژیهای تجدیدپذیر؛ آسیای مرکزی؛ جنوب قفقاز؛ حداقل مربعات معمولی کاملاً اصلاحشده (FMOLS)؛ هزینههای فناوری | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 80 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 36 |
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