| تعداد نشریات | 127 |
| تعداد شمارهها | 7,238 |
| تعداد مقالات | 77,634 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 161,102,740 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 120,794,979 |
مقایسه الگوهای زمانی-مکانی و همبستگی مقیاسی شاخصهای خشکسالی در جنوبشرق ایران با تأکید بر وضعیت دما و بارشِ سالهای اخیر | ||
| تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران | ||
| دوره 57، شماره 4، تیر 1405، صفحه 999-1019 اصل مقاله (1.91 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ijswr.2026.414132.670136 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| هانیه محمدی1؛ جواد بذرافشان* 1؛ آرزو نازی قمشلو1؛ شاهین رفیعی2 | ||
| 1گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، دانشکدگان کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران. | ||
| 2گروه مهندسی مکانیک بیوسیستم، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| خشکسالی بهعنوان یکی از مخربترین پدیدههای اقلیمی، تهدیدی جدی برای امنیت آبی و غذایی مناطق خشک و نیمهخشک محسوب میشود. پژوهش حاضر با هدف تحلیل الگوهای زمانی-مکانی خشکسالی هواشناسی در استان سیستان و بلوچستان طی دوره ۱۹۹۰ تا ۲۰۲۴ با استفاده از دادههای شش ایستگاه سینوپتیک انجام شد. شاخصهای SPI و SPEI در مقیاسهای زمانی ۱، ۳، ۶ و ۱۲ماهه محاسبه و روند آنها با آزمون من-کندال با روش پیشسفید کردن و شیب سن ارزیابی گردید. نتایج نشان داد که دمای منطقه روند افزایشی معناداری داشته و آزمون پتیت تغییر رژیم اقلیمی در سالهای ۱۹۹۸ تا ۲۰۰۱ را تأیید کرد. تبخیرتعرق در ایستگاه زابل با میانگین 65/8 میلیمتر بر روز در تابستان بیشترین مقدار را نشان داد. اگرچه در کلیه ایستگاهها روند نزولی شاخصها مشهود است، اما معنیداری آماری آن عمدتاً در مقیاسهای بلندمدت (۱۲ماهه) و بهویژه در ایستگاه زابل ثبت شد. با این حال، شاخص SPEI با نشان دادن روند نزولی در ایستگاههایی که SPI فاقد روند معنادار است، شواهدی حاکی از ماهیت انرژیمحور خشکسالی و غلبه اثرات گرمایش و تبخیرتعرق بر شرایط رطوبتی منطقه ارائه میدهد. همبستگی میان SPI و SPEI با افزایش مقیاس زمانی از ۲۱/۰ به ۷۳/۰ افزایش یافت که نشاندهنده غلبه نقش بارش در مقیاسهای بلندمدت و تأثیرپذیری SPEI از نوسانات دمایی در مقیاسهای کوتاهمدت است. ایستگاه چابهار نیز بهدلیل موقعیت ساحلی، کمترین همبستگی را نشان داد. بر اساس نتایج، مدیریت خشکسالی در این منطقه باید بر کاهش تقاضای تبخیری و افزایش تابآوری در برابر گرمایش متمرکز شود. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| آزمون من-کندال؛ خشکسالی هواشناسی؛ شاخص SPI؛ شاخص SPEI؛ سیستان و بلوچستان | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
Afshar, M.H., Bulut, B., Duzenli, E., Amjad, M., & Yilmaz, M. (2022). Global spatiotemporal consistency between meteorological and soil moisture drought indices. Agric. For. Meteorol. 316, 108848. Ahmed, K, Shahid, S., & Nawaz, N. (2018). Impacts of climate variability and change on seasonal drought characteristics of Pakistan. Atmospheric Research, 214, 364–374. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.08.020. Alexandersson, H. (1986) A homogeneity test applied to precipitation data. Journal of Climatology, 6(6), 661–675. Allen, R. G., Pereira, L. S., Raes, D., & Smith, M. (1998). Crop Evapotranspiration-Guidelines for computing crop water requirements-FAO Irrigation and drainage paper 56. Fao, Rome, 300(9), D05109. Bahrami, M., & Mahmoudi, M.R. (2020). Rainfall modelling using backward generalized estimating equations: a case study for Fasa plain, Iran. Meteorol Atmos Phys. 132, 771-779. Bahrami, M., Bazrkar, S., & Zarei, A.R. (2019). Modeling, prediction and trend assessment of drought in Iran using standardized precipitation index. J Water Clim Change, 10(1), 181-196. Barahooie, D., Hamidianpour, M., & Shoja, F. (2025). Identification of Spatiotemporal Drought Patterns in Southeastern Iran Using a Graphical Trend Analysis Approach. Physical Geography Research Quarterly, 57 (2), 77-98. http://doi.org/10.22059/jphgr.2025.398145.1007893 (In Persian) Bazrafshan, J. (2017). Effect of air temperature on historical trend of long-term droughts in different climates of Iran. Water Resources Management, 31(14), 4683-4698. Bickici Arikan, B., & Kahya, E. (2019). Homogeneity revisited: analysis of updated precipitation series in Turkey. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 135(1), 211-220. Bozorgzadeh, M., jahantigh, H., Rigi, M. & mohammadi, M. (2024). comprehensive assessment of drought severity with multi-indicator approach in saravan city-sistan and baluchistan province. ournal of Climate Change Research, 5(20), 19-32. (In Persian) Dai, A. (2011). Drought under global warming: a review.Wiley Interdiscip. Rev Clim Chang. 2, 45–65. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.81 Darroudi, H., Khosroshahi, M., & Shahabi, M. (2022). Investigating variations in climatic factors and drought trends in Sistan and Baluchestan Province. Desert Ecosystem Engineering, 10(32), 15-30. doi: 10.22052/deej.2021.10.32.11. (In Persian) Dashtpagerdi, M. M., Kousari, M. R., Vagharfard, H., Ghonchepour, D., Hosseini, M. E., & Ahani, H. (2015). An investigation of drought magnitude trend during 1975–2005 in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran. Environmental earth sciences, 73(3), 1231-1244. de Medeiros, F.J., Gomes, R.d.S., Coutinho, M.D.L., & Lima, K.C. (2022). Meteorological droughts and water resources: Historical and future perspectives for Rio Grande do Norte state, Northeast Brazil. Int. J. Climatol, 42, 6976–6995. Deldarzehi, Z., Mahmoudi, P. & Khosravi, M. (2024). Arabian Sea’s Moisture Transfer Mechanisms in Pervasive Dry and Wet Periods of Iran. Geography and Environmental Planning, 35(1), 45-72. (In Persian) Du, W., & Wang, G. (2013). Intra-event spatial correlations for cumulative absolute velocity, arias intensity, and spectral accelerations based on regional site conditions. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am, 103, 1117–1129. Fawen, L., Manjing, Z., Yong, Z., & Rengui, J. (2023). Influence of irrigation and groundwater on the propagation of meteorological drought to agricultural drought. Agric. Water Manag, 277, 108099. Firoozi, F., Mahmoudi, P., Jahanshahi, S.M.A., Tavousi, T., Liu., Y., & Liang, Zh. (2020). Modeling changes trend of time series of land surface temperature (LST) using satellite remote sensing productions (case study: Sistan plain in east of Iran). Arab J Geosci, 13, 367. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-020-05314-w Golian, S., Mazdiyasni, O., & AghaKouchak, A. (2015). Trends in meteorological and agricultural droughts in Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 119(3), 679–688. Guhathakurta, P., Menon, P., Mazumdar, A. B., & Sreejith, O. P. (2010). Changes in extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India during the last century. National Climatic Centre, Research Report, 3, 1-20. Gurrapu, S., Chipanshi, A., Sauchyn, D., & Howard, A. (2014). Comparison of the SPI and SPEI on predicting drought conditions and streamflow in the Canadian prairies. In: 28th Conference on Hydrology and the 26th Conference on Climate Variability and Change. American Metereological Society, Georgia, p7. Hoover, D.L., Hajek, O.L., Smith, M.D., Wilkins, K., Slette, I.J., & Knapp, A.K. (2022). Compound hydroclimatic extremes in a semi-arid grassland: Drought, deluge, and the carbon cycle. Glob. Chang. Biol, 28, 2611–2621. IPCC. (2013). Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Field, C. B., Barros, V., Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Dokken, D. J., Ebi, K. L., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J., Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S. K., Tignor, M. & Midgley, P. M., eds), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA. Karimi, M., Khoshakhlagh, F., shamsi por, A. A. and noruzi, F. (2019). Arabian subtropical High Pressure circulation patterns in the middle troposphere and its relationship with Iran's Precipitation. Journal of Geography and Planning, 23(69), 233-255. (In Persian) Kendall, M.G. (1975). Rank Correlation Methods, 4th edition, Charles Griffin, London. Keshavarz, A. (2025). Trends in Meteorological Drought in Iran Using the SPI Index and Mann-Kendall Test: A Comprehensive Review. Journal of Asian Geography, 4 (2), 79-83. Kheyruri, Y., Nikaein, E., & Sharafati, A. (2023). Spatial monitoring of meteorological drought characteristics based on the NASA POWER precipitation product over various regions of Iran. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res, 30, 43619–43640. Kousari, M. R., Dastorani, M. T., Niazi, Y., Soheili, E., Hayatzadeh, M., & Chezgi, J. (2014). Trend detection of drought in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran based on implementation of reconnaissance drought index (RDI) and application of non-parametrical statistical method. Water resources management, 28(7), 1857-1872. Liu, L., Liao, J., Chen, X., Zhou, G., Su, Y., Xiang, Z., ... & Shao, H. (2017). The Microwave Temperature Vegetation Drought Index (MTVDI) based on AMSR-E brightness temperatures for long-term drought assessment across China (2003–2010). Remote Sensing of Environment, 199, 302-320. Liu, Y., & Chen, J. (2021). Socioeconomic risk of droughts under a 2.0 C warmer climate: Assessment of population and GDP exposures to droughts in China. Int. J. Climatol. 41, E380–E391. Lotfinasab Asal, S., Dost, G, A., & Khosroshahi, M. (2018). Assessment and application of geostatistics in identifying and analyzing drought characteristics of Jazmourian watershed. Watershed Manage Res. 1(18), 12-25. Lotfirad, M., Esmaeili-Gisavandani, H., & Adib, A. (2022). Drought monitoring and prediction using SPI, SPEI, and random forest model in various climates of Iran. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 13(2), 383-406. Mahmoudi, P., Rigi, A., & Miri Kamak, M. (2019). A comparative study of precipitation-based drought indices with the aim of selecting the best index for drought monitoring in Iran: P. Mahmoudi et al. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 137(3), 3123-3138. Mahmoudi, P., Shirazi, S.A., Firoozi, F., Jahanshahi, S.M.A., & Mazhar, N. (2020). Detection of land cover changes in Balouchestan (shared between Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan) using the MODIS Land Cover Product. Arab. J. Geosci, 13, 1-14. Mann, H.B. (1945). Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 245-259. McKee, T.B., Doesken, N.J., & Kleist J. (1993). The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology: American Meteorological Society, 17(22), 179-183. Mehdizadeh, S, Ahmadi, F, Mehr, AD, & Safari, MJS. (2020). Drought modeling using classic time series and hybrid wavelet-gene expression programming models. Journal of Hydrology, 587, Article 125017.10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125017. Mirzavand, M., & Bagheri, R. (2020). The water crisis in Iran: development or destruction? World Water Policy, 6(1), 89-97. Nouri, M., & Homaee, M. (2020). Drought trend, frequency and extremity across a wide range of climates over Iran. Meteorological Applications, 27(2), e1899. Omidvar, K., Nabavizadeh, M., Rousta, I., & Olafsson, H. (2024). Remote sensing-based drought monitoring in Iran’s sistan and balouchestan province. Atmosphere, 15(10), 1211. Pearson, K. (1897). Mathematical contributions to the theory of evolution. on a form of spurious correlation which may arise when indices are used in the measurement of organs. Proceedings of the royal society of London, 60 (359-367), 489-498. Pettitt, A. N. (1979). A Non-Parametric Approach to the Change-Point Problem Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C (Applied Statistics), 28, 126–135. https://doi.org/10.2307/2346729 Pourasghar, F., Ghaemi, H., Jahanbakhsh, S. & Sarisarraf, B. (2017). Variability of Precipitation in Southern Part of Iran and Linkage to Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature. Geography and Environmental Planning, 28(2), 145-166. (In Persian) Qutbudin, I, Shiru, MS, Sharafati, A, Ahmed, K, Al-Ansari, N, Yaseen, ZM, Shahid, S, & Wang, X. (2019). Seasonal drought pattern changes due to climate variability: Case study in Afghanistan. Water, 11 (5), 1096.10.3390/w11051096. Raza, A., Mubarik, M.S., Sharif, R., Habib, M., Jabeen, W., Zhang, C., Chen, H., Chen, Z.H., Siddique, K.H., & Zhuang, W. (2023). Developing drought-smart, ready-to-grow future crops. Plant Genome. 16, e20279. Saeidipou, M., Radmanesh, F., & Eslamian, S. (2019). Metreological drought monitoring using the multivariate index of SPEI (case study: Karun Basin). AUT J Civ Eng, 3, 85–92. https://doi.org/10.22060/ajce.2018.14740.5494 Saemian, P., Tourian, M.J., AghaKouchak, A., Madani, K., & Sneeuw, N. (2022). How much water did Iran lose over the last two decades? J Hydrology: Reg Stud, 41, 101095, Salimi, H., Asadi, E., & Darbandi, S. (2021). Meteorological and hydrological drought monitoring using several drought indices. Applied Water Science, 11(2), 1-10. Sen, P.K. (1968). Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 63(324), 1379-1389. Sharafi, S., & Ghaleni, M. M. (2022). Spatial assessment of drought features over different climates and seasons across Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 147(3), 941-957. Siasar, H. & Salari, A. (2023). Predicting the probability of droughts using SPI drought index based on Markov chain model (Case study: Villages of Sistan and Baluchistan province). Rural Development Strategies, 10(3), 387-402. (In Persian) Siasar, H., Salari, A., Bahrami, M., & Hamidifar, H. (2025). Integrating remote sensing and meteorological analysis for monitoring drought conditions in arid regions: a case study from Sistan and Baluchestan province, Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 156(5), 291. So¨nmez, F.K., Koemuescue, A.U., Erkan, A., & Turgu, E. (2005). An analysis of spatial and temporal dimension of drought vulnerability in Turkey using the standardized precipitation index. Natural Hazards, 35, 243–264. Svoboda, M., & Fuchs, B. (2017). Handbook of Drought Indicators and Indices Thornthwaite CW (1948) An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geogr Rev, 38, 55. https://doi.org/10.2307/210739 Tabari, H., Abghari, H., & Hosseinzadeh Talaee, P. J. H. P. (2012). Temporal trends and spatial characteristics of drought and rainfall in arid and semiarid regions of Iran. Hydrological processes, 26(22), 3351-3361. Talebi, M. (2023). Water crisis in Iran and its security consequences. J Hydraulic Struct, 8(4), 17-28. Theil, H. (1950). A rank invariant method of linear and Polynomial regression analysis, Part3. Netherlands Akademic van Wettenschappen, Proceedings, 53, 1379-1412. Thornthwaite, C. W. (1948). An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geographical review, 38(1), 55-94. Torabinezhad, N., Zarrin, A. & Dadashi-Roudbari, A. (2023). Analysis of Different Types of Droughts and Their Characteristics in Iran Using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Water and Soil, 37(3), 473-486. doi: 10.22067/jsw.2023.81322.1257 (In Persian) Trenberth, KE., Dai, A., van der Schrier, G., Jones, PD., Barichivich, J., Briffa, KR., & Sheffield, J. (2014). Global warming and changes in drought. Nat Clim Chang, 4, 17–22. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2067 Tsakiris, G., Pangalou, D., & Vangelis, H. (2007). Regional drought assessment based on the reconnaissance drought index (RDI). J Water Resour Manage, 21, 821–833. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269- 006-9105-4 Ullah, I., Yuanjie, Z., Ali. S., & Rahman, G. (2020). Rainfall and drought variability in spatial and temporal context in Lop Nor region, South Xinjiang, China, during 1981–2018. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 13, 1–13. Valenzuela-Morales, G., Hernández-Téllez, M., Fonseca-Ortiz, C., Gómez-Albores, M., Esquivel-Ocadiz, A., Arévalo-Mejía, R., Mejía-Olivares, A., & Mastachi-Loza, C. (2023). Climatic and socioeconomic regionalization of the meteorological drought in Mexico using a predictive algorithm. Nat. Hazards, 117, 1381–1403. Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Van der Schrier, G., Beguería, S., Azorin-Molina, C., & Lopez-Moreno, J. I. (2015). Contribution of precipitation and reference evapotranspiration to drought indices under different climates. Journal of Hydrology, 526, 42-54. Vicente-Serrano, SM., Lopez-Moreno, J-I., Beguería, S., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Sanchez-Lorenzo, A., García-Ruiz, JM., Azorin-Molina, C., Morán- Tejeda, E., Revuelto, J., Trigo, R., Coelho, F., & Espejo, F. (2014). Evidence of increasing drought severity caused by temperature rise in southern Europe. Environ Res, Lett 9, 044001. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/044001 Visente Serrano, S.M., López-Moreno, J.I., Drummond, A., Gimeno, L., Nieto, R., Morán-Tejeda, E., & Zabalza, J. (2011). Effects of warming processes on droughts and water resources in the NW Iberian Peninsula, (1930-2006). Climate Research, 48, pp. 203-212. Von Storch, H. (1999). Misuses of statistical analysis in climate research. In: Analysis of climate variability. Springer, pp 11-26. Wang, T., Tu, X., Singh, V.P.; Chen, X., Lin, K., Zhou, Z., & Tan, Y. (2023). Assessment of future socioeconomic drought based on CMIP6: Evolution, driving factors and propagation. J. Hydrol. 617, 129009. Wu, H., Svoboda, M. D., Hayes, M. J., Wilhite, D. A., & Wen, F. (2007). Appropriate application of the standardized precipitation index in arid locations and dry seasons. Xu, J., Zhou, G., Su, S., Cao, Q., & Tian, Z. (2022). The development of a rigorous model for bathymetric mapping from multispectral satellite-images. Remote Sens, 14, 2495. Zarch, M. A. A., Sivakumar, B., & Sharma, A. (2015). Droughts in a warming climate: A global assessment of Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Reconnaissance drought index (RDI). Journal of hydrology, 526, 183-195. Zhang, F., Cui, N., Guo, S., Yue, Q., Jiang, S., Zhu, B., & Yu, X. (2023). Irrigation strategy optimization in irrigation districts with seasonal agricultural drought in southwest China: A copula-based stochastic multi objective approach. Agric. Water Manag, 282, 108293. Zhou, G., Lin, G., Liu, Z., Zhou, X., Li, W., Li, X., & Deng, R. (2023a). An optical system for suppression of laser echo energy from the water surface on single-band bathymetric LiDAR. Opt. Lasers Eng, 163, 107468. Zhou, G., Zhang, H., Xu, C., Zhou, X., Liu, Z., Zhao, D., Lin, J., & Wu, G. (2023b). A real-time data acquisition system for single-band bathymetric LiDAR. IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens, 61, 1–21. | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 111 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 82 |
||