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Amani, Ramin, Assari Arani, Abbas, Heshmati, Almas, Agheli, Lotfali. (1405). Health-Economy Uncertainty, Institutional Quality and Economic Growth in Iran: A Time-Varying Parameter Analysis. , (), -. doi: 10.22059/ier.2026.408866.1008378
Ramin Amani; Abbas Assari Arani; Almas Heshmati; Lotfali Agheli. "Health-Economy Uncertainty, Institutional Quality and Economic Growth in Iran: A Time-Varying Parameter Analysis". , , , 1405, -. doi: 10.22059/ier.2026.408866.1008378
Amani, Ramin, Assari Arani, Abbas, Heshmati, Almas, Agheli, Lotfali. (1405). 'Health-Economy Uncertainty, Institutional Quality and Economic Growth in Iran: A Time-Varying Parameter Analysis', , (), pp. -. doi: 10.22059/ier.2026.408866.1008378
Amani, Ramin, Assari Arani, Abbas, Heshmati, Almas, Agheli, Lotfali. Health-Economy Uncertainty, Institutional Quality and Economic Growth in Iran: A Time-Varying Parameter Analysis. , 1405; (): -. doi: 10.22059/ier.2026.408866.1008378

Health-Economy Uncertainty, Institutional Quality and Economic Growth in Iran: A Time-Varying Parameter Analysis

Iranian Economic Review
مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 22 اردیبهشت 1405
نوع مقاله: Research Paper
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ier.2026.408866.1008378
نویسندگان
Ramin Amani1؛ Abbas Assari Arani* 1؛ Almas Heshmati2؛ Lotfali Agheli3
1Department of Economic Development and Planning, Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
2Visiting Professor of Economics, University of Economics Ho Chi Minh city, Vietnam.
3Institute of Economic Research, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده
This study examines how health economy uncertainty and institutional quality jointly affect long run economic growth in Iran (1989–2024). Using an augmented Solow–Swan framework, we construct a novel health economy uncertainty index from 24 indicators (mortality, access to services, public health, health expenditures) and combine it with an institutional quality index from ICRG components. A time varying parameter OLS (TVP OLS) model with a Kalman filter allows all coefficients to evolve smoothly. Results show that health economy uncertainty has a negative and statistically significant effect on real output, while institutional quality exerts a positive and robust impact. The interaction term between the two is also negative, indicating that stronger institutions mitigate but do not neutralise the adverse effect of uncertainty. Traditional supply side drivers—labour and fixed capital—retain their expected positive contributions. The findings imply that Iran’s growth depends on structural fundamentals, health sector stability, and institutional quality, calling for integrated reforms that simultaneously reduce health uncertainty and strengthen institutions.
کلیدواژه‌ها
Macroeconomic dynamics؛ Public-health risk shocks؛ Governance effectiveness؛ Output fluctuations؛ Time-varying parameter models
آمار
تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 84





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