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بررسی تاثیر شاخصهای دورپیوندی بر روی عناصر اقلیمی بارش و دمای حداقل و حداکثر ایستگاه سینوپتیکی ساوه | ||
| تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران | ||
| دوره 56، شماره 11، بهمن 1404، صفحه 3217-3235 اصل مقاله (1.65 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ijswr.2025.400345.669995 | ||
| نویسنده | ||
| علیرضا سعادت مقدسی* | ||
| گروه آبیاری و آبادانی -دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی - دانشگاه تهران-کرج-ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| این پژوهش با هدف واکاوی نقش ۱۵ شاخص دورپیوندی (AMM, AMO, AO, EAWR, EP‑NP, MEI, NAO, ONI, PDO, PNA, QBO30z SCAND, SOI, TNA, TSA) بر رفتار بارش و دمای ایستگاه سینوپتیک ساوه طی دوره ۱۹۹۳–۲۰۲۴ انجام شد. دادههای شاخصها به صورت میانگین ماهانه از درگاه NCEI/NOAA و دادههای بارش و دما از سازمان هواشناسی ایران اخذ گردید. برای سنجش پیوند مستقیم از ضریب همبستگی اسپیرمن (بهدلیل بینیازی از پیشفرض توزیع) و برای استخراج الگوهای غالب، از چارچوب Rock‑PCA بهره گرفته شده است. نتایج نشان داد شاخص EP‑NP در مقیاسهای ماهانه و فصلی قویترین کنترلکننده دما است؛ درحالیکه بر اساس همبستگیهای سالانه نیز سیگنالهای اقیانوس آرام (نظیر MEI/ONI) بر دما آشکارتر از بارش ظاهر میشوند. در بارش، نقش شاخصهای اطلس و شمالگان—بهویژه AMM و AO—برجسته است: فاز منفی AMM عمدتاً به کاهش بارش (خصوصاً پاییز) و فاز منفی AO به افزایش نسبی بارش (اکتبر–دسامبر) در فلات مرکزی از جمله ساوه میانجامد؛ در فاز مثبت AO کاهش بارش غالب است. تحلیلهای ترکیبی و بررسی همزمانی فازهای شدید، همراه با اثرات تأخیری ۱–۳ ماهه، توان پیشآگاهی را بهبود میدهد. بدینترتیب، برای پیشآگاهی دما پایش EP‑NP و برای بارشِ فصلی، ترکیب EP‑NP با شاخصهای اطلس (TNA/TSA/AMO/AMM) توصیه میشود. بهطور عملی، تفاوت مقیاس «سالانه در برابر فصلی/حدی» توجیهکننده ضعف همبستگی بارش سالانه و در عوض، تقویت سیگنالها در مقیاس فصلی است. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| تحلیل کامپوزیت '؛ ' مدیریت خطرات اقلیمی '؛ ' اقلیم منطقهای | ||
| مراجع | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 126 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 100 |
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