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Assessment of Atmospheric Stability Indices for Thunderstorm Forecasting over Absheron Peninsula | ||
| فیزیک زمین و فضا | ||
| مقاله 9، دوره 51، شماره 4، اسفند 1404، صفحه 125-131 اصل مقاله (777.13 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: یادداشت تحقیقاتی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jesphys.2025.387703.1007658 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Nazim Huseynov؛ Aygun Bashirova* | ||
| Department of Aviation Meteorology, National Aviation Academy of AZAL CJSC, Baku, Azerbaijan. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| This study examines the application of various thunderstorm indices to predict the occurrence of thunderstorms over the Absheron Peninsula. By considering thermodynamic indices such as the K index, lifted index (LI), Showalter index (SI), Thompson index, S index, Total Totals (TT) and SWEAT, and comparing their ability to forecast thunderstorms, more insight is gained into the vertical thermodynamic structure over the Absheron Peninsula. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models corresponding to the territory of Heydar Aliyev International Airport (UBBB) were used to calculate the indices. To facilitate the calculations, a software tool was developed in the C# programming language, which automates the process of selecting the required meteorological parameters. The generated data series are used as input for calculating the indices. The implementation of this software enhances the efficiency of the forecasting process, significantly reducing the time required by meteorologists. Based on the results of the study, a number of the indices produced relatively high skill scores and can serve as an initial guide for forecasters in determining the occurrence of thunderstorms. Among the indices, the SWEAT index demonstrated the highest forecasting skill, followed by LI, Thompson, S, SI, and TT. The K index, however, showed the lowest skill scores. These results are comparable to those of other studies that have examined thunderstorm occurrence. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| Stability indices؛ thunderstorms؛ convection؛ cumulonimbus clouds؛ unstable environment | ||
| مراجع | ||
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Ahrens, C., Jackson, P., & Jackson, C. (2012). Meteorology Today: An Introduction to Weather, Climate, and The Environment. Hardcover. Nelson Education Ltd. Bashirova, A. (2022). Statistical analysis of hazardous atmospheric phenomena associated with convective processes. Geography and natural resources, 3(18), 8-13. Babayev, G., & Telesca, L. (2016). Site Specific Ground Motion Modeling and Seismic Response Analysis for Microzonation of Baku, Azerbaijan. Acta Geophysica. 64. 10.1515/acgeo-2016-0105 Doswell III, Ch. (1987). The Distinction between Large-Scale and Mesoscale Contribution to Severe Convection: A Case Study Example. Weather and forecasting, 2(1), 3-16. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1987)002<0003:TDBLSA>2.0.CO;2. Fernando, M., Millangoda, M., & Premalal, S. (2021). Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Disaster Risks: Analyze and Comparison of the Atmospheric Instability Using K-Index, Lifted Index Total Totals Index Convective Availability Potential Energy (CAPE) and Convective Inhibition (CIN) in Development of Thunderstorms in Sri Lanka During Second Inter-Monsoon. Springer, Cham. 603-614. https://DOI:10.1007/978-3-030-73003-1_41 Huseynov, N., & Аgayeva, А. (2019). Application of atmospheric instability indices for operational thunder forecasting based on the model data. Proceedings of the Russian State Hydrometeorological University, 56, 30-37. Huseynov, N., & Agayeva, A. (2019). Evaluation of thunderstorm conditions over the Absheron Peninsula. Scientific Proceedings of the National Aviation Academy, 21(2), 98-102. Kunz, M. (2007). The skill of convective parameters and indices to predict isolated and severe thunderstorms. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 7, 327–342. doi.org/10.5194/nhess-7-327-2007. Madatzade, A., & Shikhlinsky, E. (1968). Climate of Azerbaijan. Baku. Publishing House of the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Azerbaijan. Pashayev, A., Imanov, F., Huseynov, N., & Guliyev, G. (2007). Climate characteristics of Heydar Aliyev Airport. Baku. National Aviation Academy. Perler, D., & Marchand, O. (2009). A study in weather model output postprocessing: Using the boosting method for thunderstorm detection. Weather and Forecasting, 24(1), 2011-2022. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008WAF2007047.1 Peppler, R. A. (1988). A review of static stability indices and related thermodynamic parameters. Illinois State Water Survey. SWS Miscellaneous Publication. Retrieved from https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/handle/2142/48974. Rolph, G. (2017). Real-time Environmental Applications and Display System: READY. Environmental Modelling & Software. Elsevier Ltd, - 2017. 95, 210-228. Safarov, S. (2012). Thunderstorms and mudflows in the territory of Azerbaijan and radar methods for their forecasting. Baku. ELM. Shakina, N., & Ivanova, A. (2016). Weather forecasting for aviation. Moscow. Triada Ltd. Showalter, A. K. (1953). A stability index for forecasting thunderstorms // - Washington: Bulletin American Meteorological Society, 34, 250-252. | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 286 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 47 |
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