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Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on the Spatial Distribution of the Endangered Medicinal Plant Ferula assa-foetida L. in Kerman Province. | ||
| Desert | ||
| دوره 30، شماره 1، شهریور 2025، صفحه 92-109 اصل مقاله (1.38 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: Research Paper | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jdesert.2025.104228 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Amirreza Amrollahi Jalalabadi1؛ Shafagh Rastgar* 2؛ Azam Rezaei3؛ Ali Asghar Naghipour4 | ||
| 1Department of Rangeland Management, Faculty of Natural Resources, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Mazandaran, Iran. | ||
| 2Department of Rangeland Management, Faculty of Rangeland and Watershed Management, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Mazandaran, Iran. | ||
| 3Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Management, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Golestan, Iran. | ||
| 4Department of Nature engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, Shahrekord University, Shahrekord, Iran. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| Climate change significantly affects the habitats of species by altering plant distributions and their interactions with environmental factors. This study aimed to model the spatial distribution of the endangered medicinal plant Ferula assa-foetida L. under current and future climate scenarios in Kerman Province. Species occurrence locations were recorded using Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking. Habitat suitability modeling was conducted for two time periods: the present and the future (2050). Environmental variables incorporated into the models included climatic, physiographic, and land use factors relevant to the study area. To predict future distribution patterns based on climatic variables, two climate models HadGEM3-GC31-LL and MRI-ESM2.0 were employed under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP245 and SSP585. The Maxent model was used for species distribution modeling, achieving excellent predictive performance with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.966. Among the environmental variables, BIO9 (Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter), BIO19 (Precipitation of Coldest Quarter), and BIO11 (Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter) contributed most significantly to habitat suitability. Projections for 2050 indicate a drastic reduction in suitable habitats for F. assa-foetida. Specifically, under the HadGEM3-GC31-LL, suitable habitats are expected to decrease by 97.49% and 99.91% under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Similarly, the MRI-ESM2.0 model predicts reductions of 97.51% and 98.26% under the same scenarios. These findings highlight the urgent need for targeted management strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change and prevent the potential local extinction of this species. Furthermore, understanding the plant’s adaptive mechanisms may provide insights into its resilience and inform conservation efforts. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| Species distribution؛ Maxent model؛ Habitat suitability؛ Spread scenarios | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 310 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 241 |
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