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اثرات افزایش شوری منابع آب زیرزمینی بر الگوی کشت در دشت ارومیه | ||
| تحقیقات اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی ایران | ||
| دوره 56، شماره 3، آذر 1404، صفحه 143-160 اصل مقاله (2.08 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ijaedr.2025.388555.669350 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| شبنم کراری قره باغ1؛ حامد نجفی علمدارلو* 1؛ صادق خلیلیان1؛ مجید دلاور2 | ||
| 1گروه اقتصادکشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران | ||
| 2گروه مهندسی منابع آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| افزایش شوری آب زیرزمینی به عنوان یکی از عوامل کیفیت آب آبیاری، در تصمیمگیری برای کشت در نواحی حساس تأثیر بسزایی دارد. حوضه آبریز دریاچه ارومیه، با مشکلات جدی در زمینه مدیریت و مصرف منابع آب مواجه است. با توجه به اهمیت موضوع، مطالعه حاضر با هدف بررسی آثار افزایش شوری منابع آب زیرزمینی بر الگوی کشت در دشت ارومیه با استفاده از یک مدل زراعی-اقتصادی انجام شده است. برای این منظور ابتدا با استفاده از مدل شبیهسازی زراعی، رابطه بین میزان شوری آب زیرزمینی و عملکرد محصولات مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان میدهد که گندم و چغندرقند در منطقه مورد مطالعه نسبت به سناریوهای افزایش شوری مقاومتر هستند، اما تغییرات معنیداری در عملکرد محصولات آفتابگردان، ذرت و گوجهفرنگی ایجاد میشود. با توجه به این تغییرات، در سناریوهای مختلف شوری آب زیرزمینی، الگوی کشت بهینه با استفاده از مدل اقتصادی مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان میدهد که میزان تغییرات در الگوی کشت هر منطقه به دو عامل میزان شوری و بازده اقتصادی آن وابسته است و با افزایش شوری آب زیرزمینی، بازده ناخالص کشاورزان به میزان 0.5 تا 11 درصد نسبت به حالت بهینه کاهش مییابد. با توجه به روند رو به رشد شوری آب زیرزمینی در منطقه مورد مطالعه، اتخاذ سیاستهای سازگار با شوری پیشنهاد شده است. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| حوضه آبریز دریاچه ارومیه؛ کیفیت آب آبیاری؛ مدل زراعی- اقتصادی | ||
| مراجع | ||
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