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تهدیدهای هستهای در جنگ اوکراین و تأثیر افکار عمومی روسیه بر سیاست بازدارندگی هستهای کرملین | ||
مطالعات اوراسیای مرکزی | ||
مقالات آماده انتشار، اصلاح شده برای چاپ، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 08 تیر 1404 | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jcep.2025.390640.450305 | ||
نویسنده | ||
سعیده Lotfian* | ||
استاد، گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران | ||
چکیده | ||
جنگ اوکراین سبب شد که روسیه بر توانایی نظامی هستهای خود بیشتر تأکید کند و به تهدیدهای هستهای بهمنظور اثرگذاری بر افکار عمومی، بازدارندگی مداخله مستقیم ناتو و به تسلیم واداشتن اوکراین ادامه دهد. فشار افکار عمومی چالشی برای همه دولتها در یافتن راهکارهایی برای جلب حمایت شهروندان از سیاستهای بحثبرانگیزشان بهشمار میآید. پرسش اصلی پژوهش عبارتست از: چگونه روابط ستیزهجویانه و پرتنش روسیه و ناتو بر دیدگاه مردم روسیه در مورد کاربرد نظامی جنگافزارهای هستهای تأثیر داشته است و به دگرگونی سیاست هستهای کرملین کمک کرده است؟ در فرضیه پژوهش استدلال میشود که افزایش رویارویی تنشزا در روابط قدرتهای بزرگ پس از جنگ اوکراین و سست شدن حرامانگاری (تابوی) هستهای در افکار عمومی روسیه به تأکید بیشتر بر تهدید کاربرد سلاحهای هستهای در سیاست بازدارندگی هستهای دولت پوتین منجر شده است. از رویکردی کیفی در چارچوب نظریههای بازدارندگی و افکار عمومی، برای تحلیل و تبیین مضمون کلی سخنان تحریکآمیز مقامهای روسی و یافتههای نمونههایی از نظرسنجیهای عمومی در مورد مسائل هستهای در روسیه و امریکا برای پاسخدهی به پرسشهای پژوهشی و درک پیامدهای تهدیدهای هستهای روسیه استفاده میشود. سرانجام، پیشنهادهای سیاستی پژوهشگران و نخبگان علمی برای مدیریت بحران و کاهش احتمال به واقعیت پیوستن تهدید کرملین به کاربرد جنگافزارهای هستهای تاکتیکی در صحنه نبرد اوکراین ارائه خواهد شد. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
فکار عمومی؛ تهدید هستهای؛ راهبرد «اوجگیری برای فروکش تنش»؛ روسیه؛ اوکراین | ||
مراجع | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 31 |