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موازنۀ تهدید و روابط نظامی روسیه و چین | ||
مطالعات اوراسیای مرکزی | ||
مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 10 خرداد 1404 | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jcep.2025.378817.450232 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
جهانگیر کرمی1؛ رقیه کرامتی نیا* 2 | ||
1دانشیار، گروه مطالعات روسیه ، دانشکدۀ مطالعات جهان، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران. | ||
2دکتری مطالعات روسیه، دانشکدۀ مطالعات جهان، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران. | ||
چکیده | ||
روسیه و چین در دو دهۀ اخیر روابط گستردهای داشتهاند. همجواری روسیه با یک قدرت بزرگ جهانی رو به رشد و مشکلاتی که این کشور در مناطق همجوار در شرق دور دارد، این مسئله را مطرح میکند که منطق ژئوپلیتیک باید روسیه را به روابطی احتیاطآمیز با همسایۀ شرقی وادارد و از همکاری گستردۀ نظامی با چین بپرهیزد. با وجود این مسئلۀ مهم، روند همکاریها افزایشی بوده است و این پرسش را مطرح میکند که چه عواملی روسیه را از احتیاط راهبردی در روابط نظامیدفاعی با چین به گسترش همکاریها پیش برده است؟ در پاسخ، این فرضیه مطرح میشود که تهدید آمریکا در شرایط فشار و محاصرۀ روسیه از هنگام بحران سال 2014 اوکراین، به گسترش مشارکت دفاعی این کشور با چین منجر شده است، اما این موضوع به معنای اتحاد راهبردی نبوده و فقط نوعی موازنۀ تهدید با ابزارهای نظامی است. برای بررسی این فرضیه از روش تحلیل محتوای کیفی متغیرهای فرضیۀ پژوهش با بررسی متنها و دادههای مندرج در گزارشهای مختلف بهره میگیریم. در این نوشتار نظریۀ واقعگرایی تدافعی راهنمای تحلیل فرضیۀ نویسندگان است. یافتۀ این نوشتار این است که روابط میان کشورها در خلأ صورت نمیگیرد و در متنی چندبازیگری و چندموضوعی و بهطور همزمان و نسبی تغییر و تداوم مییابد. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
موازنۀ تهدید؛ همکاری نظامی؛ روسیه؛ چین آمریکا | ||
مراجع | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 113 |