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تحولهای ساختاری مجموعۀ امنیتی قفقاز جنوبی (2020-2024) | ||
مطالعات اوراسیای مرکزی | ||
دوره 17، شماره 2، اسفند 1403، صفحه 1-27 اصل مقاله (889.61 K) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jcep.2025.386611.450279 | ||
نویسنده | ||
قاسم اصولی* | ||
استادیار گروه مطالعات منطقهای، دانشکدۀ بیمۀ اکو، دانشگاه علامۀ طباطبایی، تهران، ایران | ||
چکیده | ||
از سال 2020 به ترتیب، جنگ دوم قرهباغ، جنگ اوکراین و روسیه، احیای حاکمیت جمهوری آذربایجان در منطقۀ خانکندی و انتخابات پارلمانی گرجستان در اکتبر 2024 چرخشگاهی در تاریخ تحولهای ژئوپلیتیکی و ژئواکونومیک منطقه به شمار میآیند که بر مؤلفههای مجموعۀ امنیتی قفقاز جنوبی اثر گذاشتهاند. چنانچه جنگ در تاریخ روابط بینالملل منشأ تحول ساختاری و بازتوزیع قدرت و تولد بنیانها و نهادهای جدید همکاری و تعارض در بین بازیگران است، در سطح منطقهای هم در نتیجۀ جنگ دوم قرهباغ و جنگ اوکراین این تحولها رخ داده است. در این نوشتار نویسنده این پرسش را مطرح میکند که چگونه مجموعۀ امنیتی قفقاز جنوبی زیر تأثیر تحولهای سالهای 2020 تا 2024 تغییر یافته است. به نظر میرسد با این تحولها مؤلفههای مجموعۀ امنیتی مانند مرزهای هر دو تحول درونی و انبساط بیرونی را بهدلیل پیوستگی بیشتر تحولهای قفقاز با غرب آسیا تجربه میکند. ساخت اجتماعی با تحول سرشت و حرکت از حالت هابزی به کانتی بهدلیل کاربست سیاستهای عملگرایانه بهجای رؤیاگرایانه بهوسیلۀ ارمنستان روبهرو است. نوع قطبیت از زیرمجموعۀ امنیتی در نتیجۀ جنگ دوم قرهباغ به وضعیت استاندارد منطقهای در نتیجۀ جنگ اوکراین حرکت میکند. سرانجام حرکت روندها را از حالت تعدیل وضعیت آنارشی به وضعیت تشدید وضعیت آنارشی و افزایش خودمختاری بیشتر منطقه شاهد هستیم. در این نوشتار مؤلفههای ساختار مجموعۀ امنیتی قفقاز جنوبی به روش کیفی و مدلسازی ساختاریتفسیری سنجیده میشود. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
مجموعۀ امنیت منطقهای؛ آنارشی؛ ساخت اجتماعی؛ قطبیت؛ قرهباغ؛ اوکراین | ||
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