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ارزیابی و اولویت‌بندی عوامل کلیدی تأثیرگذار بر ارتقاء قدرت دفاعی ایران | ||
| پژوهشهای جغرافیای انسانی | ||
| مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 20 اسفند 1402 اصل مقاله (1.59 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jhgr.2024.368451.1008650 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| سجاد نجفی* ؛ افشین متقی | ||
| گروه جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| موقعیت ژئوپلیتیک ایران در منطقه، اگر چه منجر به فراهم نمودن جایگاه ویژه برای ایران در مناسبات منطقه‌ای و بین‌المللی گردیده است، منتها از سوی دیگر خود منجر به ایجاد تهدید و حتی حمله نظامی به کشور ایران در مقاطع زمانی مختلف گردیده است، بنابراین لزوم داشتن آمادگی کامل نظامی برای مقابله و دفاع در برابر تهدیدهای مطرح را برای ایران اجتناب‌ناپذیر نموده است. در همین راستا تقویت توان نظامی و شناسایی عوامل مهم و کلیدی تأثیرگذار بر ارتقاء توان قدرت دفاعی ایران به عنوان اصلی اساسی و مهم در سیاست خارجی کشور و ایجاد بازدارندگی مطرح می‌باشد که می‌بایست مورد توجه سیاست‌مداران و فرماندهان نظامی قرار گیرد. به همین منظور در مقاله پیش‌رو با چارچوب قرار دادن نظریه صلح بازدارنده به عنوان نظریه پایه تحقیق و به منظور ارزیابی و اولویت‌بندی عوامل کلیدی تأثیرگذار بر ارتقاء قدرت دفاعی ایران با دید و نگاه آینده پژوهانه، با مطالعه اسناد و سوابق علمی پیشین صورت پذیرفته مرتبط، تعداد 27 عامل کلیدی در قالب شش بعدی نظامی، جغرافیایی، اقتصادی، سیاسی، اجتماعی و علمی، شناسایی و مشخص گردید. در ادامه با استفاده از روش تحلیل اهمیت-عملکرد IPA و استفاده از نظر 40 نفر از خبرگان، ارزش اهمیت و ارزش عملکرد هر عامل به صورت جداگانه بر مبنای طیف لیکرت پنج‌تایی تعیین و طبق نتایج به دست آمده و وزن‌دهی عوامل، تعداد پنج عامل دارای اولویت که اهمیت و عملکرد بالایی دارند و پنج عامل دارای اهمیت بالا و عملکرد پایین به عنوان عوامل مهم و کلیدی تأثیرگذار بر قدرت دفاعی ایران مشخص گردید.. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| قدرت دفاعی؛ نظریه صلح بازدارنده؛ آینده پژوهی؛ ارزیابی عملکرد؛ تحلیل IPA | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Evaluation and Prioritization of Key Factors on Increasing Iran's Defense Power | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Sajad Najafi؛ Afshin Mottaghi | ||
| Department of Political Geography, Faculty of Geography, Khwarazmi University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Evaluation and Prioritization of Key Factors on Increasing Iran's Defense Powerٍ Iran's geopolitical position in the region has led to providing a special place for Iran in regional and international relations; on the other hand, it has led to threats and even military attacks on Iran at different times. Therefore, it is inevitable for Iran to have a complete military readiness to confront and defend against the threats raised. In this regard, strengthening the military power and identifying the important and key factors affecting the improvement of Iran's defense power as a basic and essential principle in the country's foreign policy and creating deterrence is proposed, which should be given the attention of politicians and military commanders. Extended Abstract Introduction Iran's geopolitical position in the region has led to providing a special place for Iran in regional and international relations; on the other hand, it has led to threats and even military attacks on Iran at different times. Therefore, it is inevitable for Iran to have a complete military readiness to confront and defend against the threats raised. In this regard, strengthening the military power and identifying the important and key factors affecting the improvement of Iran's defense power as a basic and essential principle in the country's foreign policy and creating deterrence is proposed, which should be given the attention of politicians and military commanders. In this connection, the following article frames the theory of deterrent peace as the basic theory of research in order to evaluate and prioritize the key factors influencing the improvement of Iran's defense power with a forward-looking view by studying the previous scientific documents and records, the number of 27 key factors in the form of six dimensions, military, geographical, economic, political, social and scientific, were identified and specified. In the following, using the IPA importance-performance analysis method and using the opinion of 40 experts, the importance value and the performance value of each factor were determined separately based on the five-point Likert scale, and according to the obtained results and the weighting of the factors, The number of five priority factors with high importance and performance and five factors with high importance and low performance were identified as important and key factors affecting Iran's defense power. Methodology This research is of an applied-developmental type in terms of goal and result. In terms of the method, it is a combination of descriptive-analytical methods and the use of survey methods (interviews with experts and questionnaires), and the means of gathering information is using related documents and resources (books, articles, internet), interviews, and questionnaires. The statistical population includes experts with a scientific background related to military-defense issues (including high-ranking military commanders and managers with a strategic position and researchers working in the scientific and research centers of the armed forces and professors of the geography faculty of Tehran and Kharazmi universities), whose number 40 people were estimated. The purposeful sampling method was used to select experts and determine the sample size. The research process is, first, to determine the general and key factors affecting Iran's defense power by examining previous scientific records. Twenty-seven factors were selected in six dimensions as military, economic, geographical, social, political, and scientific. In the second step, using the IPA performance-importance analysis model and the opinion of experts, the factors were evaluated and weighted, and the priority and important factors affecting the future of Iran's defense power were identified. Results and discussion The following five factors were identified as important and influential factors on Iran's defense power according to their location in the situation matrix, which are of high relative importance and due to the lack of proper planning by the officials and decision-makers in the defense-security field, the desired performance; they are unacceptable. Therefore, the optimal and suitable strategy is effort and planning to achieve suitable and acceptable performance for these five factors. 1) Paying attention to the living conditions and the standard of living of the families of military personnel and the level of morale of the military forces; 2) The level of constructive and intelligent interaction with the world economy and the ability to attract capital and international credits and the level of foreign investment in Iran's basic infrastructure and domestic industries; 3) The country's geopolitical weight and the country's strategic and geopolitical position; 4) The rate of scientific growth and progress in the fields of nanotechnology, biotechnology, genetics, molecular biology and life sciences; 5) The number of study institutes and military-defense research and research institutes and the amount of use of modern defense technology and knowledge by the military forces. Conclusion Based on the theoretical framework of the research and according to the theory of deterrent peace, the country's approach and strategy in the field of defense in the first stage should prioritize the principle of adherence to peace and create a suitable environment and platform inside and outside the country to establish friendly relations and interaction. Moreover, cooperation with neighbors and other countries in the region and the world is necessary to avoid violence and military conflict while considering the anarchic situation ruling the international system. Also, according to God's orders and historical experiences and perceived military threats against the country, within the framework of legal cases, to strengthen and grow the components to be effective in enhancing the defense-military power in order to maintain and stabilize the national authority and ensure the national interests of the country. So that in the event of a conflict and a military attack in the future, the least damage and material and human losses will be caused to the country and national interests. Keywords: Defensive Power, Theory of Deterrent Peace, Future Studies, Performance Evaluation, IPA Analysis. Keywords: Defensive Power, Theory of Deterrent Peace, Future Studies, Performance Evaluation, IPA Analysis. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Keywords: Defensive Power, Theory of Deterrent Peace, Future Studies, Performance Evaluation, IPA Analysis | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 44 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 28 |
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