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تحلیل پویا از تاثیرات اقتصادی تحولات ساختاری جمعیت در دهه های آتی کشور ایران ( با تاکید بر نقش زنان) | ||
زن در توسعه و سیاست | ||
دوره 22، شماره 1، فروردین 1403، صفحه 1-37 اصل مقاله (1.49 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jwdp.2023.362558.1008358 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
عمران قیصر1؛ سیما اسکندری سبزی* 2؛ علی سلمان پور3؛ سید یوسف حاج اصغری4 | ||
1دانشجوی دکتری تخصصی توسعۀ اقتصادی، گروه اقتصاد، واحد میانه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، میانه، ایران. | ||
2استادیار گروه اقتصاد، واحد میانه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، میانه، ایران. | ||
3استادیار گروه اقتصاد، واحد مرند، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مرند، ایران | ||
4استادیار گروه مدیریت، واحد میانه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، میانه، ایران | ||
چکیده | ||
با توجه به اینکه جمعیت و تحولات آن یکی از چالشی ترین مسائل دهه های آتی کشور خواهد بود و تاثیرات و پیامدهای مختلف اجتماعی و اقتصادی و سیاسی و ... با خود به دنبال خواهد داشت. این پژوهش با هدف تحلیل پویای تاثیرات اقتصادی تحولات ساختاری جمعیت در دهه های پیش رو با تاکید بر نقش زنان به مطالعه و بررسی این روند می پردازد. لذا این پژوهش برای درک بیشتر از تحولات ساختاری جمعیت (در چهارگروه سنی) درگذشته، حال و پیش بینی آینده آن؛ با مدل سازی سیستم های پویا به شبیه سازی روند جمعیت کشور از سال 1355 تا 1455، با نرم افزار «Vensim» به پیش بینی تحولات ساختاری جمعیت پرداخته است. یافته های پژوهش نشان داد روند جمعیتی سنین کار از سال 1415 به صورت کاهشی خواهد بود؛ یعنی این روند حدود 10 سال قبل تر از روند کاهشی جمعیت کل، اتفاق خواهد افتاد. بنابراین برای جبران کسری نیروی کار فعال اقتصادی و بهبود روند تولید افزایش اشتغال زنان یکی از کار آمدترین راهکارهای موثر دراین بحران خواهد بود. همچنین به ازای اعمال سیاست افزایش سالیانه 100 هزار نیروی کار فعال اقتصادی زنان در الگوی ارائه شده در سال 1455 میزان نیروی کار فعال بانوان از 83/4 میلیون نفر به 81/8 میلیون نفر افزایش می یابد. حاصل این سیاست باعث افزایش 2.5 درصدی تولید کشور خواهد شد. لذا فراهم سازی حضور بانوان در فعالیتهای اقتصادی می تواند یکی از عوامل موثر بر تولید و اشتغال باشد. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
پویایی های سیستم؛ تاثیرات اقتصادی؛ تحولات ساختار جمعیتی کشور ایران؛ نقش زنان | ||
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مراجع | ||
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