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تحلیل مولفه های تاثیر گذار در مدیریت بحران در نواحی روستایی از دیدگاه کارشناسان و خبرگان
|پژوهشهای جغرافیای انسانی
|مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 29 شهریور 1402
|نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی پژوهشی
|شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jhgr.2023.334796.1008418
|مخاطرات بر اثر فرایند رابطه انسان با محیط تعریف می شود در غیر اینصورت پدیده هایی که خطر نام می بریم جزو رفتار معمولی و رایج طبیعت است. مدلی متناسب در پایش و مدیریت بحران به حل مشکلات عدیده در زمینه بلاهای طبیعی می تواند کمک کند. کشور ما باتوجه به قرار گرفتن در مسیر کمربند کوه زایی آلپ- هیمالیا و برخورداری از اقلیم متغیر و ناپایداریهای موقت و موسمی در طول تاریخ، بلایای طبیعی به خصوص سیل و زلزله را در اغلب نقاط خودتجربه کرده است(ازکیا و همکاران، 1384) . بطوریکه کشور ما یکی از ده نقطه بلاخیز دنیا محسوب می شود. مناطق روستایی استان اصفهان دارای روستاهای بسیار زیادی میباشد که نبود قوانین و برنامه ای متناسب در زمینه کنترل و مدیریت بحران های ناشی از مخاطرات طبیعی، منابع زیادی را نابود خواهد کرد که این امر بررسی و تحلیل مولفه های موثر در مدیریت بحران و تبیین الگوی برنامه ریزی متناسب آن را طلب می کند.
هدف از این پژوهش تحلیل و مدل سازی مولفه های تاثیر گذار در مدیریت بحران در نواحی روستایی استان اصفهان می باشد. روش تحقیق توصیفی- تحلیلی است و جهت گردآوری دادهها از مطالعات میدانی(پرسشنامه) استفاده شده است. جامعه آماری این تحقیق شامل 22 نفر از مدیران مرتبط هستند؛ که در حوزه مدیریت بحران فعالیت داشتند. برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها از معادلات ساختاری استفاده شده است. در نهایت : برنامه ریزی (30/0)، آموزش و ترویج(18/0)، قوانین و مقررات (66/0) ، اطلاع رسانی(46/0) و عامل زیربنایی (22/0) از بارهای عاملی را تبیین می نماید.
|مدیریت؛ بحران؛ معادلات ساختاری؛ نواحی روستایی؛ استان اصفهان
|عنوان مقاله [English]
|Analysis of effective components in crisis management in rural areas from the perspective of experts
|. The location of Iran in the global earthquake belt and the existence of dense population points and geographical dents, the need to pay attention to control and It has doubled crisis management in rural areas. In addition to the two major and devastating disasters (earthquakes and floods), drought, large fires, hurricanes, desertification and all kinds of unnatural crises in rural areas occur every year in some rural areas.
Understanding the crisis and spatial modeling of its components has attracted the attention of experts, geographers, environment, hydrologists, meteorologists and agricultural scientists (Saadabadi et al., 2014). In this regard, the lack of an appropriate model in crisis monitoring and management has added to many problems in this area. The second part was questions related to natural hazard management and was used in the form of a five-level Likert scale (very low = 1 to very high = 5).
The strength of the relationship between the factor (hidden variable) and the observable variable is indicated by the factor load. The factor load is a value between zero and one. If the factor load is less than 0.3, a weak relationship is considered and ignored. A factor load of between 0.3 and 0.6 is acceptable, and if greater than 0.6 it is highly desirable. It can be seen that all the observed variables had positive and significant regression effect coefficients with their scales and the magnitude of these coefficients is relatively high for all cases, of all factor loads at the level of / 001. They are meaningful. As can be seen, in this table no significant level is reported for the factor loads or the standard regression coefficients of the five observed variables. This is because these variables are considered as reference variables for planning, education and promotion, rules and regulations, information and infrastructure, respectively, so that these variables are hidden without scale, in other words. That is why the initial path diagrams on the arrows corresponding to the paths between these observed variables are considered to be the hidden variable corresponding to the values of 1, the AVE criterion showing the mean variance to it is shared between each structure with its own characteristics. Simply put, AVE (average variance extracted) is used to validate convergence and shows a high correlation between the indices of one structure compared to the correlation of indices of other structures. The value of this coefficient is from zero to one variable that values higher than 0.5 are accepted. Convergent validity or extracted mean variance (AVE) for the planning index / 766. , Education and Extension Index was 0.711, Rules and Regulations Index was 0.799, Information Index was 0.526 and Infrastructure Index was 0.626. Also, the value of structural reliability coefficient or combined reliability (CR) varies from zero to one. Values above 0.7 are accepted, which is / 755 for the planning index. , Education and Extension Index was 0.737, Rules and Regulations Index was 0.802, Information Index was 0.514 and Infrastructure Index was 0.526, which indicates the appropriateness of these subscales.
All path coefficients show high values, the intensity of which was observed in relation to the factor loads of the variables. These are: planning (0.30), education and extension (0.18), rules and regulations (0.66), information (0.46) and infrastructure (0.22).
The present study was conducted with the aim of modeling crisis management. Crisis management was defined as a measure for crisis management by defining the five components of planning, education and promotion, rules and regulations, information and infrastructure. Five models of confirmatory factor analysis, one first-order factor for measuring and validation of four scales and one second-order five-factor model for crisis management analysis and related introductions were developed and implemented. Extension (0.18), rules and regulations (0.66), information (0.46) and infrastructure index (0.22) were explained. The results of structural equations showed that there are 5 factors (planning, Education and promotion (rules and regulations, information and infrastructure) on crisis management are among the influential components.
Findings showed that the first factor, called "planning", is the result of the thinking of individuals and the participation of that community. Therefore, it is necessary to look at them in accordance with the environmental conditions and the potentials and capabilities of the region. Therefore, this factor is one of the important factors for crisis managers that requires careful attention and strategic and practical thinking. This factor can be compared with the research findings  and  which in the research believe that crisis management requires planning of all stakeholders in society.
The second factor, referred to as "education and promotion", showed that this factor, according to personal needs and changing sciences and special circumstances, will provide the basis for reducing vulnerability, so it is necessary to Providing integrated management of education and promotion of villagers should be at the top of crisis management priorities.
The third factor, called "weakness of rules and regulations", has been approved as one of the main structures in crisis management. In fact, this structure is considered as one of the most important and challenging factors in crisis management. Therefore, this factor showed that the enforcement of laws and regulations can play an important role in improving crisis management and therefore it is necessary to pay major attention to it at the national, regional and local (rural) level. This factor can also be compared with the research findings which emphasized this index in their research, and mentioned it as the basis for improving rangeland management.
The fourth factor, called "information", can help manage crisis through the use of knowledge and up-to-date information. This factor can be compared with research findings and they believe that receiving knowledge and information, especially indigenous knowledge from various sources is effective. Also, the role of formal and non-formal education should not be overlooked.
|Crisis, management, structural equations, rural areas, Isfahan province
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