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پیشبینی و تحلیل مکانی-زمانی ذرات ریز جوی و اثرپذیری آن از دما و پوشش گیاهی در سطح ایران با استفاده از رویکرد هموارسازی نمایی در پایتون | ||
نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی | ||
دوره 76، شماره 2، تیر 1402، صفحه 325-344 اصل مقاله (2.01 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jne.2023.354696.2521 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
فائزه برهانی1؛ امیر هوشنگ احسانی* 1؛ حلیا سادات حسینی شکرابی2 | ||
1گروه مهندسی عمران-محیط زیست، دانشکده محیط زیست، دانشگاه تهران، ایران. | ||
2دانشکده منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات، تهران، ایران. | ||
چکیده | ||
پیشبینی نسبتاً دقیق غلظت آلاینده ها و متغیرهای محیط زیستی کوتاهمدت و بلندمدت، گام مهمی در کاهش آسیبهای ناشی از کیفیت پایین هوا می باشد. در این مطالعه، ابتدا به تحلیل مکانی-زمانی و سپس با استفاده از تکنیکهای پیشبینی، به پیش بینی غلظت ذرات ریز جوی (PM2.5)، دما و شاخص پوشش گیاهی (NDVI) بر روندPM2.5 در دورة زمانی 5 ساله (1400-1396) در سطح کشور ایران پرداخته شده است. داده های غلظت ذرات ریز جوی PM2.5، دما و شاخص پوشش گیاهی بر مبنای مدلهای ماهواره ای MERRA-2، FLDAS و MODIS استخراج شده است. در دورة پنج سالة مطالعاتی، یک روند تا حدودی نزولی برای غلظت هوای PM2.5 مشاهده گردید. نتایج کمترین میانگین سالانة غلظت ذرات ریز جوی را در طی سال های 1398 و 1399 نشان داد. همچنین یک همبستگی قوی بین غلظت PM2.5 و دما بهدست آمد. بیشترین میانگین غلظت PM2.5 در شمال غربی، غرب و جنوب غرب ایران رخ داده است. در مرحلة بعد، برای پیشبینی وضعیت غلظت آتی ذرات ریز جویPM2.5 هوا، دما و شاخص پوشش گیاهی از رویکرد هموارسازی نمایی (Exponential Smoothing) در کتابخانة آماری پایتون (Statsmodels) برای مدلسازی سریهای زمانی ماهانه استفاده شد. ارزیابی مدلها با دو معیار خطای جذر میانگین مربعات (RMSE) و ضریب تعیین (R2) بهمنظور حداقل نمودن خطای برآورد و یافتن مناسب ترین مدل از میان یازده مدل پیش بینی شده انجام شد. نتایج حاصل بیانگر آن است که مدل های هموارسازی نمایی دوگانه برای پیشبینی غلظتPM2.5 و مدل های هموارسازی نمایی سه گانه با روند Holt-Winter برای پیش بینی داده های دما و NDVI مناسب تر است. این مطالعه می تواند به درک بهتر اثرات اقتصادی، بهداشتی و محیط زیستی متأثر از آلودگی هوا با پیش بینی دورهای که سطوح آلودگی هوا ممکن است بهویژه بالا باشد، برای برنامه ریزی بهتر به مؤسسات دولتی و خصوصی کمک نماید. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
دما؛ ذرات ریز جوی؛ شاخص پوشش گیاهی؛ هموارسازی نمایی | ||
مراجع | ||
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