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تبیینی بر سیستم دفاع موشکی روسیه از دیدگاه واقعگرایی نوکلاسیک | ||
مطالعات اوراسیای مرکزی | ||
دوره 15، شماره 2، اسفند 1401، صفحه 129-150 اصل مقاله (673.57 K) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jcep.2023.324174.450005 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
محمدرضا تخشید1؛ مرتضی شجاع* 2 | ||
1استادیار، گروه روابط بینالملل، دانشکدۀ حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران | ||
2دکتری روابط بینالملل، دانشکدۀ حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران | ||
چکیده | ||
در سالهای اخیر برنامۀ استقرار سیستم دفاع موشکی روسیه نه در قالب برنامهای تاکتیکی، بلکه مانند برنامهای راهبردی ارتقا یافته است. این برنامه شامل توسعۀ ابزارهای شناسایی، رهگیری و هشدار زودهنگام و استقرار آنها در مناطق راهبردی در قلمرو روسیه و برخی کشورهای متحد آن است. این پرسش مطرح است که چرا روسیه اقدام به توسعه و استقرار سامانههای دفاع موشکی کرده است؟ در دستهبندی کلان، این نوشتار از دستۀ پژوهشهای کیفی است که در ارائۀ دادههای مربوط به سامانههای دفاع موشکی به روش تاریخی و زمینۀ آزمون فرضیه به روش تجربی انجام شده است. در قالب این روش، در این نوشتار به سخنان مقامهای روس و بررسی اسناد سیاست خارجی و امنیتی روسیه و همزمانی این برنامه نیز توجه کردهایم. فرضیۀ نوشتار این است که تلاش غرب برای استقرار سپر دفاع موشکی موجب شد رهبران روسیه احساس تهدید کنند و امنیت و جایگاه بینالمللی کشورشان را بهعنوان یک قدرت بزرگ و یکی از دو کانون اصلی قدرت نظامی در خطر ببینند. در نتیجه، سامانههای دفاع موشکی خود را از نظر کیفی ارتقا دادند و در مناطق راهبردی مستقر کردند. در این نوشتار دریافتیم بین این سه متغیر، استقرار سپر دفاع موشکی غرب، ادراک رهبران روسیه و استقرار سیستم دفاع موشکی روسیه، رابطۀ معناداری وجود دارد. افزون بر آن، استقرار نیروهای تهاجمی آمریکا در اروپا که در پی خروج واشینگتن از پیمان کنترل تسلیحات پدید آمد نیز در پیدایش چنین رویکردی مؤثر بوده است. همچنین یافتههای نوشتار نشان میدهد که هم سطح فناوری سامانههای دفاع موشکی روسیه بهنسبت نمونۀ غربی آن پایینتر است و هم قلمرو پوشش آنها محدودتر است. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
روسیه؛ آمریکا؛ اس-300؛ اس- 400؛ اس- 500؛ دفاع موشکی؛ ماهواره؛ ورونژ | ||
مراجع | ||
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