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ارزیابی میزان سهم انسان و اقلیم در بروز تغییر رژیم هیدرولوژیکی بهصورت قطعی و فازی: مطالعه موردی حوضه آبریز گرگانرود منتهی به ایستگاه هیدرومتری تمر | ||
فیزیک زمین و فضا | ||
مقاله 10، دوره 48، شماره 2، شهریور 1401، صفحه 403-420 اصل مقاله (3.27 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jesphys.2022.329382.1007352 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
محمدمسعود محمدپور خوئی1؛ محسن ناصری* 2؛ سیدمحمدعلی بنیهاشمی2 | ||
1دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، پردیس دانشکدههای فنی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران | ||
2دانشیار، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، پردیس دانشکدههای فنی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران | ||
چکیده | ||
انسان همواره بهمنظور ارتقا رفاه اجتماعی و اقتصادی مداخلات جدی و قابلملاحظهای در طبیعت انجام داده که مسبب بروز دگرگونیهایی در طبیعت شده است. چرخه هیدرولوژی یکی از مهمترین سیستمهاییاست که تاکنون مورد دخالتهای بسیاری قرار گرفته و به موجب آن، جنبههای مختلف رفتار هیدرولوژیک تغییر کردهاست. یکی از این متغیرهای هیدرولوژیکی، جریان رودخانه است که متغیر مهمی در بیلان آب بهشمار میرود. فعالیتهایی همچون انتشار گازهای گلخانهای که سبب تغییراقلیم و در نهایت تغییر در رژیم رودخانه میشوند، بهعنوان عامل غیرمستقیم و فعالیتهایی همچون احداث سدها، مصرف آب برای فعالیتهای کشاورزی و تغییر کاربری اراضی که مستقیماً از سوی انسان اعمال میشوند، بهعنوان عامل مستقیم دخالت انسانی شناخته میشوند. در این تحقیق تسهیم مشارکت فعالیتهای مستقیم و غیرمستقیم انسانی در بروز تغییر در نظام طبیعی رفتار رودخانه تمر با استفاده از ریاضیات فازی مورد مطالعه قرار میگیرد. به این منظور پس از تعیین نقطه شکست زمانی جریان رودخانه، از مدلسازی هیدرولوژیکی با مدلهای SWAT و شبکه عصبی مصنوعی، بهمنظور شناخت رابطه بین اقلیم و هیدرولوژی استفاده شد. بهدلیل وجود عدمقطعیت در رفتار هیدرولوژیک و اثرگذاری آن در این تسهیم، روشی مبتنی بر محاسبات فازی بهمنظور تعیین سهم اثرات مستقیم و غیرمستقیم انسانی توسعه داده و نتیجه با روشهای قطعی موجود مقایسه شد. نتایج که گویای انطباق روش پیشنهادی با سایر رویکردهای مورد استفاده است، نشان داد تغییرات کاربری اراضی بهصورت چشمگیری در تغییرات نظام جریان رودخانه مؤثر است. نتایج این تحقیق میتواند برای مدیران حوزه کشاورزی و منابع آب مفید باشد. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
تغییر اقلیم؛ تغییر کاربری اراضی؛ گرگانرود؛ ارزیابی عدمقطعیت؛ ریاضیات فازی | ||
مراجع | ||
آذری، م.، 1392، ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم و راههای سازگاری با آن در مدیریت منابع آب و خاک. رساله دکتری علوم و مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، 169 ص.
کلباسی، ا. و زهرایی، ب.، 1394، کمیسازی اثر فعالیتهای انسانی بر روانابهای سطحی با تاکید بر آشکارسازی اثرات تغییر اقلیم، پایان نامه برای دریافت درجه کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه تهران.
محضری، س.، 1393، شبیهسازی هدرروی نیترات توسط رواناب و رسوب در حوه گرگانرود استان گلستان. پایاننامه کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی علوم خاک-فیزیک و حفاظت خاک، دانشکده علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان. 194 ص.
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