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جعفرزاده, احمد, صابری‌نصر, امیر, هاشم‌نژاد, آرش, مرسلی, مسعود. (1401). تحلیل عدم‌قطعیت شبیه‌سازی عددی هجوم آب به تونل انتقال آب صفارود کرمان. , 12(4), 675-694. doi: 10.22059/jwim.2022.339210.969
احمد جعفرزاده; امیر صابری‌نصر; آرش هاشم‌نژاد; مسعود مرسلی. "تحلیل عدم‌قطعیت شبیه‌سازی عددی هجوم آب به تونل انتقال آب صفارود کرمان". , 12, 4, 1401, 675-694. doi: 10.22059/jwim.2022.339210.969
جعفرزاده, احمد, صابری‌نصر, امیر, هاشم‌نژاد, آرش, مرسلی, مسعود. (1401). 'تحلیل عدم‌قطعیت شبیه‌سازی عددی هجوم آب به تونل انتقال آب صفارود کرمان', , 12(4), pp. 675-694. doi: 10.22059/jwim.2022.339210.969
جعفرزاده, احمد, صابری‌نصر, امیر, هاشم‌نژاد, آرش, مرسلی, مسعود. تحلیل عدم‌قطعیت شبیه‌سازی عددی هجوم آب به تونل انتقال آب صفارود کرمان. , 1401; 12(4): 675-694. doi: 10.22059/jwim.2022.339210.969

تحلیل عدم‌قطعیت شبیه‌سازی عددی هجوم آب به تونل انتقال آب صفارود کرمان

مدیریت آب و آبیاری
مقاله 1، دوره 12، شماره 4، بهمن 1401، صفحه 675-694    اصل مقاله (3.05 M)
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jwim.2022.339210.969
نویسندگان
احمد جعفرزاده* 1؛ امیر صابری‌نصر2؛ آرش هاشم‌نژاد3؛ مسعود مرسلی4
1گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشگاه بیرجند، بیرجند، ایران.
2گروه زمین‌شناسی، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران.
3زمین‌شناسی مهندسی، شرکت ساحل امید ایرانیان، تهران، ایران.
4گروه زمین‌شناسی، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران.
چکیده
یکی از مهم‌ترین مشکلات در پروسه حفاری تونل، هجوم آب به درون تونل است. از این‌رو، تخمین میزان هجوم آب و ‏پیش‌بینی اقدامات موردنیاز قبل از شروع حفاری بسیار اهمیت دارد. این پژوهش در نظر دارد تا یک مدل بر پایه روش عددی بدون ‏شبکه و الگوریتم ‏DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM)‎‏ را جهت انجام‌دادن فرایند شبیه‌سازی- ‏بهینه‌سازی هجوم آب به درون تونل ارائه دهد. در طرح پیشنهادی، ارتفاع سطح آب زیرزمینی در محیط پیرامون تونل انتقال آب ‏صفارود کرمان شبیه‌سازی شد و تحلیل عدم‌قطعیت پارامترها (هدایت هیدرولیکی)، داده‌های ورودی (بارش و دبی منابع برداشت) ‏و مدل‌سازی عددی در نظر گرفته شد. نتایج تحلیل عدم‌قطعیت نشان داد که هدایت هیدرولیکی در نواحی مختلف بین 0002/0 تا ‏‏2/0 متر بر روز متغیر است. هم‌چنین، بررسی وضعیت زمین‌شناسی منطقه اثبات کرد که شرایط هیدروترمال موجب افزایش ‏نفوذپذیری شده است. علاوه بر این، مشخص شد که داده‌های ورودی با چهار درصد کم تخمینی ثبت شده‌اند. بررسی عدم‌قطعیت ‏مؤلفه‌های دخیل در مدل‌سازی عددی نیز نشان داد که برای حصول یک دقت مناسب، اندازه دامنه محلی و دامنه حمایتی باید ‏به‌ترتیب 85/0 و سه برابر فاصله میان‌گرهی باشند. نتایج به‌دست‌آمده از شبیه‌سازی ارتفاع سطح آب زیرزمینی با استفاده از ‏خروجی فرایند شبیه‌سازی- بهینه‌سازی نشان داد که بین مقادیر مشاهداتی و شبیه‌سازی شده دقت مناسبی وجود دارد و از این ‏منظر شاخص ‏RMSE‏ حدود 5731/2 متر برآورد شد. علاوه‌بر این، مقایسه شبیه‌سازی هجوم آب نشان داد که دبی هجوم آب به ‏درون تونل در قسمت‌های شمالی و جنوبی به‌ترتیب معادل 43/72 و 09/45 لیتر بر ثانیه است.‏
کلیدواژه‌ها
آبخوان سنگی درز و شکاف‌دار؛ بدون شبکه؛ تابع محلی درون‌یاب نقطه‌ای شعاعی؛ دگرسانی؛ شرایط هیدروترمال
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آمار
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