تعداد نشریات | 161 |
تعداد شمارهها | 6,533 |
تعداد مقالات | 70,506 |
تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 124,125,348 |
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 97,233,784 |
چرخش در سیاست خارجی افغانستان در دورۀ اشرفغنی: رویکردی ادراکی | ||
مطالعات اوراسیای مرکزی | ||
دوره 14، شماره 2، اسفند 1400، صفحه 319-345 اصل مقاله (700.27 K) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jcep.2021.318519.449982 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
حمیرا مشیرزاده* 1؛ مهدی عارفی2 | ||
1دانشیار، گروه روابط بینالملل، دانشکدة حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران | ||
2دکتری روابط بینالملل، دانشکدة حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران | ||
چکیده | ||
«تصمیمهای دور از انتظار» در دوران ریاستجمهوری اشرفغنی در افغانستان از ویژگیهای سیاست خارجی او به حساب میآید. یکی از این تصمیمها نقض اصل بیطرفی از سوی اشرفغنی بود که پیش از این همواره در نقش یک اصل در سیاست خارجی افغانستان عمل میکرده است و کنارگذاشتن آن چرخشی بنیادی براورد میشود. در این مقاله با طرح این پرسش که چرا اشرفغنی رویکرد بیطرفی را از سیاست خارجی افغانستان کنار گذاشت؟ میخواهیم نشان دهیم این تصمیم بنابر تأثیر ادراکهای ویژۀ اشرفغنی از سیاست خارجی مطلوب برای افغانستان و درک او از واقعیتهای بیرونی گرفته شد. در این چارچوب، از نظریۀ نقشۀ ادراکی بهعنوان یکی از رویکردهای ادراکی در تبیین سیاست خارجی بهره میگیریم. همچنین با اتکا بر روش تحلیل محتوای کیفی، متنهایی را که بازتاب ادراکهای غنی محسوب میشوند، واکاوی میکنیم تا چگونگی رسیدن غنی به این تصمیم را تبیین کنیم. مهمترین یافتۀ پژوهش این است که براساس نگرش اقتصادی و عملگرای اشرفغنی و در ادراکهای ویژۀ او، هدف نهایی حکومت یعنی ایجاد صلح و تأمین امنیت برای افغانستان، از مسیر رشد اقتصادی، جلب سرمایههای خارجی و ایجاد وابستگی متقابل دوجانبه و چندجانبۀ منطقهای و فرامنطقهای میگذرد. بر همین اساس او تصمیم به نقض بیطرفی گرفت. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
سیاست خارجی؛ ادراک؛ اشرف غنی؛ افغانستان؛ تصمیمگیری | ||
مراجع | ||
Abbasi, Ibrahim and Majid Ranjbardar (2011), “Iran’s Financial Aids to Afghanistan: its Goals and Economic Effects”, Foreign Relations Quarterly, Vol. 3, No. 3, Fall 2011, pp. 195-229, [in Persian]. http://frqjournal.csr.ir/article_123566.html#ar_ info_pnl_cite Abed, Ahmad Zia (2019), “US Competition with Iran and Increasing Insecurity in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2014”, Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies, Vol. 4, No. 11, Spring 2019, pp. 61-89, [in Persian]. Ashraf Ghani, Mohammad (2013), National Program and the Prospect of the Decade of Change, Kabul: Transformation and continuity campaign, [in Persian]. Ashraf Ghani, Mohammad (2018), Statements by President Ghani (Collection of Statements by President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani), first volume, Kabul: Press department office the president, [in Persian]. Atai, Farhad and Zangeneh, Somaye (2020), “Evolution of Priorities in Shanghai Cooperation Organization since its Establishment up to 2019”, Journal of Central Eurasia Studies, Vol. 13, No. 1, Spring & Summer 2020, pp. 143-160 [in Persian]. https://dx.doi.org/ 10.22059/jcep.2020. 287851.449867 Axelrod, Robert (1976), Structure of Decision, The Cognitive Maps of Political Elites, New Jersey, Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/ 10.1515/ 9781400871957 Andisha, Nasir A. (2015), “Neutrality in Afghanistan’s Foreign Policy”, SPECIAL REPORT 360 in The United States Institute of Peace, (Accessed on: 9 February 2018), available at: https://www.usip.org/sites/ default/files/SR360-Neutrality-in-Afghanistan's-Foreign-Policy.pdf Bahrami, Mohammad Reza (2019), “Events in Afghanistan after September 11 and its Impact on Iran; The Illusion of Victory”, Hamshahri -e- Diplomatic, New Vol, No. 44, October 2010, pp. 47-55, [in Persian]. Chegnizadeh, Gholamali (2018), The Perception of Afghan Elites about Iran, Kabul, Institute of Afghanistan’s Strategic Studies [in Persian]. FatemiNejad, Sayed Ahmad and MohammadZade, Alireza (2018), “The Role of New Afghanistan in Regional Security Complex: From Central Asia into South of Asia”, Journal of Central Eurasia Studies, Autumn & Winter 2018, Vol. 11, No. 2, pp. 399-416 [in Persian]. https://dx.doi.org/10.22059/jcep.2019.216523.449668 Gregorian, Vartan (2009), The Emergence of Modern Afghanistan; Politics of Reform and Modernization, Tehran, Erfan Publication, [in Persian]. Heradstveit, Daniel and G. Matthew Bonham (1986), “Decision Making in the Face of Uncertainty: Attributions of Norwegian and American Officials”, Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 23, No. 4, pp. 339-356. https://doi.org/10.1177%2 F002234338602300404 Hadian, H. (2009), “The Structural Weakness of Nation-State Building in Afghanistan”, Strategic Quarterly, Vol. 18, No. 51, pp. 133-151. https://www. sid.ir/en/journal/ViewPaper.aspx? id=209977 Hopkins, B. D. (2008), The Making of Modern Afghanistan, London: Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020743809990717. Holsty, El. Radolf (2017), Content Analysis in Social and Human Sciences, Translated by Nader Salarzadeh Amiri, Tehran: Allameh Tabatabaie Press, [in Persian]. Jafari, Mohammad Musa and Molaei, Alisajjad (2018), The Balance of Threat Between Iran And Saudi Arabia and National Unity Government”, Quarterly Journal of Contemporary Perspective on Foreign Policy and International Relations, Vol. 1, No. 2, Winter 2018: pp. 163-190, [in Persian]. Kavra, viny (2018), “Afghanistan-India relations in the era of Narendra Modi and Ghani”, Quarterly Journal of Contemporary Perspective on Foreign Policy and International Relations, translated by Sharif Hozuri, Vol. 1, No. 2, Winter 2018: pp. 139-162, [in Persian]. Khalilzad, Zolmai. (1996), “Afghanistan in 1995: Civil War and a Mini-Great Game”, Asian Survey, Vol. 36, No. 2, pp. 190-195. https://doi.org/10.2307/ 2645816 Kozak, Christopher (2017), “The Strategic Convergence of Russia and Iran”, (Accessed on: 23 February 2019) Available at: https://criticalthreats.org/ analysis/the-strategic-convergenceof-russia-and-iran. Maykut, Pamela & Richard Morehouse (1995), Beginning Qualitative Research, London and New York: The Falmer Press. Mojadadi, Najibullah (2018), The National Unity Government’s Foreign policy toward Kazakhstan based on Rosenau’s Linkage Theory”, Journal of Strategic Studies, No. 41 & 42, pp. 49-71, [in Persian]. Moshirzadeh, Homeira (2017), Theoretical Foundations of Foreign Policy Explanation and Analysis, Tehran: samt publication, [in Persian]. Morelli, Vincent, Belkin, Paul (2009), NATO in Afghanistan: A Test of the Transatlantic Alliance, Congressional Research Service. http://dx.doi.org/ 10.11610/Connections.06.3.02 Milani, Mohsen.M (2006), “Iran's Policy towards Afghanistan”, The Middle East Journal, Vol. 60, No. 2, pp. 235-256. http://www.jstor.org/stable/ 4330248 Sajjadi, Abdolqaium (2018), Afghanistan’s Foreign Policy, Kabul: Press of Khatam-ul-Nabiein University. Saikal, Amin (2006), Modern Afghanistan: A History of Struggle and Survival, London: I. B. Tauris. Salahi, Ahmadzobair et al (2017), “The Analiyzing of Afghanistan’s Foreign Policy in Ashraf Ghani’s era”, Journal of Diplomacy and International Studies, Vol. 2, No. 5, Autumn 2017, pp. 7-34, [in Persian]. Schafer, Mark and Stephen G. Walker (2006), Beliefs and Leadership in World Politics: Methods and Applications of Operational Code Analysis. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1057/ 9781403983497 Shafaq Khavati, Mohammad (2018), “Mutual Suicide Revisionism in Three Neighbours Relation”, Quarterly Journal of Contemporary Perspective on Foreign Policy and International Relations, Vol. 1, No. 1, Autumn 2018: pp 119-164, [in Persian]. Sinaei, Vahid and Yousof-Zehi, Naser (2018), “Inquiry of the situation of Afghanistan’s economic development in democratic era (2001-2017)”, Journal of Central Eurasia Studies, Autumn & Winter 2018, Vol. 12, No. 2, pp. 345-363 [in Persian]. https://dx.doi.org/10.22059/jcep. 2019.264648.449788 Spanta, Rangin Dadfar (2009), Afghanistan’s Foreign Policy at the beginning of 21 Century: Interviews and Press Conferences, By Abdolghafour Arezoo, Kabul: The Publication of Afghanistan’s Foreign Ministry. Spanta, Rangin Dadfar (2017), Afghanistan’s Policy: Narrative from Inside, Two-volume course, Kabul: Azem Publication, [in Persian]. Stanekzai, Mohammad Masoom. (2009), “Dilemmas of State Building in Afghanistan”, World Bank Institute, Development Outreach, (Accessed on: 3 February 2021) Available at: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https:// openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/4588/deor_11_2_36.pdf%3Fsequence%3D1&ved=2ahUKEwiE85ftos7uAhUB7aQKHZakDT4QFjAAegQIARAB&usg=AOvVaw2m8Di_OywitCao5NJcUSfO Tamanna, Faramarz et al (2014), Afghanistan’s Foreign Policy in the Sphere of Regional Cooperations, Kabul: Center of Stretegic Studies of Afghanistan’s Foreign Ministry. Weber, R. (1991), Basic Content Analysis, London, California and New Dehli: Sage Publications. https://dx.doi.org/10.4135/9781412983488. Tolouei, Hadi and Shafieefar, Mohammad (2018), “Iran’s Smart Power Analysis in Afghanistan after the US-led Invasion in 2001”, Journal of Central Eurasia Studies, , Spring & Summer 2018, Vol. 12, No. 1, pp. 137-155 [in Persian]. https://dx.doi.org/10.22059/jcep.2019.132667. 449605 Vatanyar, Mohammad Naser (2018), Post-Taliban Afghanistan’s Foreign Policy, Kabul: Parand pulication, [in Persian]. Young, M. and M. Schafer (1998), “Is There Method in Our Madness? Ways of Assessing Cognition in International Relations, Mershon International Studies Review. Vol. 42, No. 1, pp. 63-96. https://doi.org/10.2307/254444 Young, Michael and Mark Scheafer (2017), “Ways of Assessing Cognition in International Relations”, Translated by Homeira Moshirzadeh, in Articles on Cognitive Approach in Foreign Policy Analysis, collection and translation by Homeira Moshirzadeh and Shayan Afrasiabi, Tehran: Mizan publication. 2017, [in Persian]. | ||
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 1,463 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 1,607 |