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ماهیت تجدیدنظرطلبی روسیه و چین؛ سیاست و منافع ایران | ||
مطالعات اوراسیای مرکزی | ||
دوره 14، شماره 2، اسفند 1400، صفحه 371-396 اصل مقاله (581.28 K) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jcep.2021.328326.450023 | ||
نویسنده | ||
علیرضا نوری* | ||
استادیار گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشکدة اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شهیدبهشتی | ||
چکیده | ||
هدف در این نوشتار بررسی ماهیت تجدیدنظرطلبی روسیه و چین و تأمل در مورد منافع و رویکرد بایستۀ ایران در این زمینه است. در دیالکتیک تشدیدشدۀ موضوعی و کارگزارانه در شرایط گذار به نظم جدید، تجدیدنظرطلبی این دو کشور بیش از گذشته برجسته شده است و پیامدهای ملموسی بر سیاست بینالملل و منافع ایران دارد. در این نوشتار با رویکردی نظاممند و در چارچوب مفهومی تجدیدنظرطلبی میانگیر ماهیت تغییرخواهی روسیه و چین را تحلیل میکنیم. این دو کشور تا یک دهه پیش بهدلیل دسترسی اندک به منابع «خارج نظام» در ردیف تجدیدنظرطلبان همگرا بودند که مترتب بر تغییرطلبی در چارچوب نظم موجود، بدون چالشگری جدی است. در سالهای اخیر با تقویت منابع خارج نظام، تجدیدنظرطلبی آنها به نوع میانگیر متمایل شده است که در آن تمایل و امکان تغییرها افزایش و هزینۀ تغییرطلبی کاهش مییابد. بنابر یافتههای این نوشتار، نظر به اینکه همچنان بخش عمدهای از منابع این دو از «درون نظام» تأمین میشود، ماهیت تجدیدنظرطلبی آنها نه معطوف به اساس نظم موجود، بلکه اصلاحبخشی، تدریجی و غیراساسی برخی روندها و تمرکز بر نفی نسبی نیروی مسلط بر نظم موجود یعنی آمریکا و غرب از بعضی روندها و ساختها است. با توجه به وجود وابستگی و آسیبپذیری متقابل و اینکه آمریکا و غرب بیشتر توان شبکهای و نهادی خود را تا آیندۀ پیشبینیپذیر حفظ خواهند کرد، تغییرخواهی نسبت به آمریکا و غرب نیز تدریجی، غیراساسی و عملگرایانه است. بر این اساس، منافع و رویکرد ایران در فهم واقعگرایانۀ این مسئله است و تجدیدنظرطلبی تهران با روسیه و چین مشابه نبوده است و فرض امکان دریافت حمایت پایدار از آنها به این دلیل، دقیق نیست. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
آمریکا؛ ایران؛ تجدیدنظرطلبی میانگیر؛ چین؛ روسیه؛ نظام بینالملل | ||
مراجع | ||
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