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تحلیل همبستگی شاخصهای پیوند ازدور بزرگمقیاس با تبخیروتعرق مرجع ماهانه ایستگاههای همدید ایران | ||
تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران | ||
دوره 52، شماره 6 - شماره پیاپی 66، شهریور 1400، صفحه 1629-1644 اصل مقاله (1.46 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ijswr.2021.322853.668951 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
جلیل هلالی* 1؛ ابراهیم اسعدی اسکویی2 | ||
1گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، دانشکده مهندسی و فناوری کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران | ||
2استادیار، پژوهشگاه هواشناسی و علوم جو، تهران، ایران | ||
چکیده | ||
تبخیروتعرق مرجع بهعنوان مؤلفه مهم در چرخه هیدرولوژی و تعیین نیاز آبی بهحساب میآید. در این مطالعه تلاش شد تأثیرگذاری شاخصهای پیوندازدور بزرگمقیاس بر تبخیروتعرق مرجع ماهانه در گستره ایران مورد واکاوی قرار گیرد. به این منظور، تبخیروتعرق مرجع روزانه و سپس ماهانه با معادله PMF-56 در 123 ایستگاه همدید ایران در دوره 2019-1990 محاسبه شده و همبستگی آن با 37 شاخص پیوندازدور با تأخیرهای زمانی همزمان تا 12 ماه با روش همبستگی پیرسون به دست آمد و فراوانی نوع همبستگیها نیز محاسبه گردید. در نهایت ضریب همبستگی در پهنه ایران با روش کریجینگ در محیط نرم افزار ArcGIS 10.4 انجام شد. نتایج به دست آمده نشان میدهد بیشترین همبستگی مثبت متعلق به شاخصهای AMO، CO2، NTA، TNA و TSA و بیشترین همبستگی منفی متعلق به شاخصهای MEI و SST3.4 در تأخیرهای زمانی مختلف است. بیشترین فراوانی همبستگیهای معنادار با تبخیروتعرق متعلق به شاخصهای CO2، AMO، NTA، TNA و WHWP است که به ترتیب 58، 35، 23، 23 و 21 درصد ایستگاههای مورد مطالعه را شامل میشوند. گستردهترین پراکنش مکانی همبستگیهای معنادار متعلق به غلظت دی اکسید کربن است که در همه تأخیرهای زمانی و همه ماههای مورد مطالعه به جر نوامبر و دسامبر به دست آمده است. نتایج این مطالعه نشان داد شاخصهای پیوندازدور و غلظت دی اکسیدکربن میتوانند در تأخیرهای زمانی صفر تا 12 ماهه همبستگی مناسب داشته باشند و به شرط استفاده از مدلهای یادگیری ماشین مناسب در جهت پیشبینی مقدار تبخیروتعرق مرجع ماهانه مورد استفاده قرار گیرند. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
ایران؛ تبخیروتعرق مرجع؛ شاخصهای پیوندازدور؛ دی اکسیدکربن؛ همبستگی پیرسون | ||
مراجع | ||
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