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پیشبینی اثر ترکیبی تغییر اقلیم و کاربری اراضی بر فرسایش خاک در ایران با استفاده از داده های جهانیGloSEM | ||
اکوهیدرولوژی | ||
مقاله 15، دوره 8، شماره 2، تیر 1400، صفحه 513-534 اصل مقاله (2.26 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ije.2021.320754.1482 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
هادی معماریان* 1؛ مرتضی اکبری2 | ||
1دانشیار گروه مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست، دانشگاه بیرجند، بیرجند، ایران | ||
2استادیار گروه مدیریت مناطق خشک و بیابانی، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران | ||
چکیده | ||
فرسایش خاک فرایندی پیچیده با اثر نامطلوب محیط زیستی است. امروزه، در مقیاس جهانی، با مدلسازی تأثیر عوامل طبیعی و انسانی بر شدت فرسایش خاک، امکان تعیین پیشرانهای اصلی بومسازگان، برای سیاستگذاری کارآمد در مدیریت بهینۀ خاک فراهم شده است. بنابراین، در مطالعۀ حاضر برای پیشبینی فرسایش خاک در حوضههای آبخیز ایران از دادههای اعتبارسنجیشده پروژۀ برآورد جهانی فرسایش خاک در پایگاه GloSEM شامل سناریوی پایه (2015) و پیشبینیهای آینده (2070) فرسایش خاک با اثر تغییر اقلیم در 3 سناریوی اقلیمی RCP2.6، RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 بر عامل فرسایندگی باران (R) و اثر تغییر کاربری اراضی در 3 سناریوی تلفیقی SSP1-RCP2.6، RCP4.5 SSP2- و SSP5-RCP8.5 بر عامل پوشش گیاهی (C) و عامل حفاظت خاک (P) است، استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد آسیبپذیری حوضههای آبخیز مرکزی، جنوبی و شرق کشور از تغییرات ترکیبی اقلیم و کاربری اراضی بیشتر از سایر حوضههاست. بهطوری که در این آبخیزها، حتی بدون در نظر گرفتن اثر تغییر اقلیم، روند تغییرات فرسایش خاک بین سناریوی پایه (2015) با سناریوهای SSP2-RCP4.5 و SSP5-RCP8.5 افزایشی بوده، ولی در آبخیزهای مرطوب یا نیمهمرطوب شمالی و غربی کشور کاهشی است. با در نظر گرفتن اثر ترکیبی تغییر کاربری و اقلیم، روند تغییرات فرسایش خاک بین سناریوی پایه (2015) با سناریوهای SSP1-RCP2.6 (با میانگین افزایش 184 درصد)، SSP2-RCP4.5 (با میانگین افزایش 243 درصد) و SSP5-RCP8.5 (با میانگین افزایش 341 درصد) در تمامی آبخیزها بهجز آبخیز ارس افزایشی بوده است. نتایج تحقیق بیانگر آسیبپذیری بیش از 10 برابری حوضههای آبخیز مرکزی ایران ناشی از تغییرات اقلیمی و کاربری اراضی تا سال 2070 است. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
پیشبینی فرسایش خاک؛ تخریب سرزمین؛ مدلهای اقلیمی؛ مدل جهانی فرسایش خاک؛ مدیریت حوضه های آبخیز | ||
مراجع | ||
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