پیوندهای مفید
اخبار و اعلانات
آمار
| تعداد نشریات | 158 |
| تعداد شماره‌ها | 6,230 |
| تعداد مقالات | 67,760 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 115,139,597 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 89,902,197 |
تأثیر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی بر میزان خسارت‌های مالی و جانی بلایای طبیعی در ایران | ||
| اکوهیدرولوژی | ||
| مقاله 7، دوره 7، شماره 4، دی 1399، صفحه 921-933 اصل مقاله (890.77 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ije.2020.307408.1364 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| سمانه عابدی* 1؛ عبدالرسول قاسمی2؛ سید حمیدرضا مرتضوی3 | ||
| 1استادیار دانشکدۀ اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران | ||
| 2دانشیار دانشکدۀ اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران | ||
| 3کارشناس ارشد، دانشکدۀ اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| بلایای طبیعی یکی از علت‌های مهم مرگومیر انسانها هستند. در این میان، سیل و زلزله بیشترین آمار خسارت‌های جانی و مالی را به خود اختصاص دادهاند. با توجه به اینکه ایران جزء ده کشور اول حادثهخیز دنیا است، مطالعۀ حاضر به ارزیابی آثار متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی بر خسارت‌های جانی و مالی ناشی از سیل و زلزله به روش WLS طی بازۀ زمانی 1339 - 1398 در ایران پرداخته است. نتایج مطالعۀ حاضر نشان داد افزایش یکدرصدی در متغیرهای تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه، امید به زندگی و میزان باسوادی موجب کاهش به‌ترتیب 52/1، 26/5 و 55/10 درصدی در خسارت‌های جانی ناشی از سیل و زلزله شده است. همچنین، افزایش یکدرصدی در متغیرهای تراکم جمعیت، میزان بیکاری، مخارج دولت در زیرساختها و باز بودن اقتصاد به‌ترتیب افزایش 64/20، 47/7، 22/4 و 86/4 درصدی خسارت‌های جانی ناشی از سیل و زلزله را به همراه دارد. از طرف دیگر، افزایش یکدرصدی در متغیرهای تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه، تراکم جمعیت، مخارج دولت در زیرساختها و میزان باسوادی سبب افزایش به‌ترتیب 86/1، 01/13، 81/12و 52/24 درصدی در خسارت‌های مالی ناشی از سیل و زلزله شده است. همچنین، افزایش یکدرصدی در متغیرهای امید به زندگی و سرمایهگذاری در سرمایۀ فیزیکی نیز سبب کاهش به‌ترتیب 22/33 و 9/9 درصد در خسارت‌های مالی ناشی از سیل و زلزله شده است. با توجه به نتایج پژوهش حاضر، از آنجا که تأثیر متغیرهای اقتصادی بر میزان خسارت‌های مالی و جانی ناشی از سیل و زلزله در ایران درخور توجه است، بنابراین سیاستگذاری اقتصادی برای کاهش آثار منفی این حوادث امری ضروری تلقی میشود. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| آزادی تجاری؛ بلایای طبیعی؛ سیل؛ شاخص امید به زندگی؛ میزان باسوادی | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on the Financial and Casualties of Natural Disasters in Iran | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Samaneh Abedi1؛ Abdolrasoul Ghasemi2؛ Hamidreza Mortazavi3 | ||
| 1Assistant Professor, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran | ||
| 2Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran | ||
| 3M.Sc, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Natural disasters are one of the most important causes of human death. Meanwhile, floods and earthquakes have the highest number of casualties and financial losses. Therefore, given that Iran is one of the top ten countries in the world, Hence, the present study evaluates the effects of macroeconomic variables on casualties and financial losses caused by floods and earthquakes by the WLS method in the period 1339-1398 in Iran. The results of this study showed that one percent increase in the variables of GDP per capita, life expectancy and literacy rate caused a decrease of 1.52, 5.26 and 10.55 percent in flood and earthquake casualties, respectively. Also, a one percent increase in the variables of population density, unemployment rate, government spending on infrastructure and openness of the economy increases by 20.64, 7.47, 4.22 and 4.86 percent, respectively, of the casualties caused by floods and earthquakes. On the other hand, a one percent increase in GDP per capita, population density, government spending on infrastructure and literacy rate caused an increase of 1.86, 13.01, 12.81 and 24.52 percent in financial losses due to floods and earthquakes, respectively. A one percent increase in the variables of life expectancy and investment in physical capital also caused a decrease of 33.22 and 9.9 percent in the financial losses caused by floods and earthquakes, respectively. Therefore, considering the results of the role of economic variables in the amount of financial and casualties caused by floods and earthquakes in Iran is significant, so economic policy to reduce the negative effects of these events is considered necessary. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Flood, natural disasters, Life expectancy index, Literacy rate, Trade freedom | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
[1]. Abedi Gh. Investigation of natural disasters and its role in sustainability development with emphasis on Iran. Geographical information Journal of Sepehr. 1998; 7(28): 52-64. [Persian] [2]. Ghomian Z, Yousefian Sh. Natural Disasters in the Middle-East and North Africa With a Focus on Iran 1900 ti 2015. Health in Emergencies and Disasters Quarterly. 2017;2(2):53-62. [Persian] [3]. ghonavati E, ghalami Sh, Abdoli A. Empowerment of Urban Crisis Management in Reducing Natural Waters (earthquake) Case Study-Khorramabad City. Natural Geography. 2009;1(4):15-24. [Persian] [4]. Emamgholipour S, sadeghi H. Study of the Impact of Natural Disasters on Non-oil Gross Domestic Product in Iran. Economic research. 2008;43(83):115-136. [Persian] [5]. Sawada Y,Takasaki Y. Natural Disaster, Poverty and Development-An Introduction. World Development. 2017; 94:2-15. [6]. Padli J, Habibullah M, Baharom A. The impact of human development on natural disaster fatalities and damage- panel data evidence. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja. 2018; 31(1):1557-1573. [7]. Escaleras M, Register Ch. Public Sector Corruption and Natural Hazards. 2016;44(6):746-768.
[8]. USGS Earthquake Hazards Program. [cited 2020Aug23]. Available from: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/
[9]. Rabie A, Ardalan A, Pourhosseini S. Evaluation of the coordination of the organizations responsible for the management of natural disasters. Wise. 2013;16(2):107-117.
[10]. Yaghobi R, Shakibaee A. Effects of Natural Disasters (Flood, Earthquake, Drought, Storm) on Economic Growth in Selected Countries. First National Conference on Geography. Tourism, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development. Tehran. Iranian Institute of Science. Planning and Development Sustainable Tourism University of Tehran; 2014.
[11]. Breckner M, Englmaier F, Stowasser T, Sunde U. Resilience to natural disasters-Insurance penetration, institutions, and disaster types. Economics Letters. 2016; 148:106-110.
[12]. Plümper T, Flores A, Neumayer E. The double-edged sword of learning from disasters: Mortality in the Tohoku tsunami. Glabal Environmental Change. 2017; 44:49-56.
[13]. Wong S, Hughes J. The Impacts of Natural Disasters on Educational Attainment: Cross-Country Evidence from Macro Data. Master of Science in International and Development Economics (MSIDEC). 2018.
[14]. Egawa Sh, Nakamura Y, Suda T, Sasaki H. Life Expectancy Negatively Correlates with Disaster Risk Index. Prehospital and Disaster Medicine. Cambridge University Press. 2019;34(1):70-79.
[15]. McKenzie E, Prasad B C, Kaloumaira A. Economic impact of natural disasters on development in the Pacific. Canberra; 2005.
[16]. Peterson S. Earthquake Resources [Internet]. 2018[cited 2020Aug24]. Available from: https://www.nctsn.org/what-is-child-trauma/ trauma-types/disasters/earthquake-resources/
[17]. Mbaye L. Climate change, natural disasters and migration. IZA World of Labor. 2017.
[18]. Li H. An empirical study on relationship between natural disasters and economic growth—based on the 14 countries panel data in 1970–2008. Prices Mon. 2011; 1:47–51.
[19]. Fusseel E, Curran S, Dunbar M, Babb M, Thomson L, Irons J. Weather-Related Hazards and Population Change: A Study of Hurricanes and Tropical Storms in the United States 1980–2012. Author manuscript. 2016;669(1):146-167.
[20]. Brauch H. G. The Mediterranean space and boundaries. In A Geography, politics, economics and environment. 2001; 1:25-58.
[21]. Auffhammer M. Quantifying Economic Damages from Climate Change. Journal of Economic Perspectives. 2018;32(4):33–52.
[22]. Botzen WJW, Deschenes O, Sanders M. The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters-A Review of Models and Empirical Studies. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy. 2019;13(2):167–88.
[23]. Kusano K and Kemmelmeier M. Ecology of Freedom-Competitive Tests of the Role of Pathogens, Climate and Natural Disasters in the Development of Socio-Political Freedom. Front. Psychol. 2018; 9:954.
[24]. Noy I. The Macroeconomic Consequences of Disasters. Journal of Development Economics. 2009; 88:221-231.
[25]. Aleed Y. Effects of Education in Developing Countries. Journal of Construction in Developing Countries. 2016.
[26]. Marzi S, Mysiak J, Essenfelder AH, Amadio M, Giove S, Fekete A. Constructing a comprehensive disaster resilience index: The case of Italy. Plos One. 2019;14(9).
[27]. Welle T, Birkmann J. The World Risk Index – An Approach to Assess Risk and Vulnerability on a Global Scale. Journal of Extreme Events. 2015;02(01).
[28]. Shryok S, Siegel J. The Methods and Materials of Demography. Washington, DC, US Bureau of the Census; 1973.
[29]. Laden G. "Falsehood: "If this was the Stone Age, I'd be dead by now"". ScienceBlogs; 2011.
[30]. Statistical Center of Iran, 2020, Access site: https://www.amar.org.ir/Portals/0/News/2018/neroos-97.pdf. [Persian]
[31]. Samuelson P, Nordhaus W. Glossary of Terms"Factors of production, Capital, Human capital and Land. Economics. 18th ed; 2004.
[32]. Barro R, Grilli V. The Approach to Macroeconomics. European Macroeconomics. Macmillan; 1994.
[33]. Birdsall N, Hamoudi A. Commodity Dependence, Trade, and Growth-When Openness is Not Enough. SSRN Electronic Journal. 2002.
[34]. Statistical Center of Iran, 2020, Access site: https://www.amar.org.ir [Persian]
[35]. Skidmore M, Toya H. Do natural disasters promote long-run growth? Econ. Inquiry. 2002; 40:664–687.
[36]. Maitra B. ‘Investment in Physical, Human Capital, Economic Growth and Life Expectancy in Bangladesh: An Empirical Investigation’. South Asia Economic Journal. 2018;19(2): 251–269.
[37]. Ewing BT, Kruse JB, Thompson MA. Twister, Employment responses to the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma City tornado. Applied Economics. 2009;41(6):691–702.
[38]. Neumayer E, Plümper T. The gendered nature of natural disasters-the impact of catastrophic events on the gender gap in life expectancy 1981–2002. Annals of the Association of American Geographers. 2007;97(3):551-566.
[39]. Murillo M, Tan Sh. Discovering the differential and gendered consequences of natural disasters on the gender gap in life expectancy in Southeast Asia. Hazards Earth Syst. 2017.
[40]. Elliott R. Natural hazards and residential mobility-General patterns and racially unequal outcomes in the United States. Social Forces. 2014; 93(4):1723–1738.
[41]. Logan J, Issar, Sukriti, Xu, Zengwang. Trapped in place? Segmented resilience to hurricanes in the Gulf South. Demography. 2016; 53:1511–1534.
[42]. Apronti PT, Osamu S, Otsuki K, Kranjac-Berisavljevic G. Education for disaster risk reduction (DRR)-Linking theory with Practice in Ghana's basic schools. Sustainability. 2015; 7:9160–86.
[43]. Aghaei N, Nesami MB. Bioterrorism education effect on knowledge and attitudes of nurses. J Emerg Trauma Shock. 2013; 6:78–82.
[44]. Meesters JJ, Vliet Vlieland TP, Hill J, Ndosi ME. Measuring educational needs among patients with rheumatoid arthritis using the Dutch version of the educational needs assessment tool (DENAT) Clin Rheumatol. 2009; 28:1073–1091.
[45]. Lopez LM, Grey TW, Tolley EE, Chen M. Brief educational strategies for improving contraception use in young people. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2016;3:CD012025.
[46]. Lopez LM, Tolley EE, Grimes DA, Chen-Mok M. Theory-based interventions for contraception. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2011;3:CD007249.
[47]. Martin BG, Rolen HB, Goodman DC. Educational Strategies for Prospective Payment. Laboratory Medicine. 1984;15(8):551–3.
[48]. Pesaran M.H, Yongcheol S. Co-integration and speed of convergence to equilibrium. J. Econ. 1996; 71:117-143.
[49]. Benson C, Clay J. Understanding the Economic and Financial Impacts of Natural Disasters. Disaster Risk Management Series. No 4. The World BankWashington DC; 2004. | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 676 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 381 |
||