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پیش‌بینی مقایسه‌ای بارش و دمای شهرستان کرمان با استفاده از مدل‌هایLARS-WG6 | ||
| اکوهیدرولوژی | ||
| مقاله 19، دوره 7، شماره 2، تیر 1399، صفحه 529-538 اصل مقاله (1019.95 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ije.2020.298577.1294 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| میثم جعفری گدنه1؛ علی سلاجقه* 2؛ پارسا حقیقی3 | ||
| 1دانش‌آموختۀ کارشناسی ارشد علوم و مهندسی آبخیز، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران | ||
| 2استاد دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران | ||
| 3دانش‌آموختۀ کارشناسی ارشد علوم و مهندسی طبیعت، دانشکدۀ علوم و فنون نوین، دانشگاه تهران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| ارزیابی تغییرات اقلیمی برای مناطق خشک و نیمهخشک که بحران کم‌آبی آن را فرا گرفته است، اهمیت زیادی دارد. بنابراین، هدف از تحقیق حاضر پیش‌بینی تغییرات اقلیمی شهرستان کرمان با استفاده از مدل‌های گردش عمومی جو قابل دسترس در نرمافزار LARS-WG6 (EC-EARTH، GFDL-CM، HadGEM2-ES،MIROC5 و MPI-ESM-MR) تحت سناریوهای RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 برای دورۀ 2020ـ 2050 و برآورد حداکثر بارش آن در دورۀ بازگشتهای مختلف طی دورۀ پایه (1961ـ 2010) و آینده (2020-2050) با استفاده از توزیع گامبل است. نتایج نشان داد هر پنج مدل در زمینۀ پیش‌بینی دمای این شهرستان پاسخ یکسانی در زمینۀ افزایش حداکثری دمای مینیمم و ماکزیمم نشان دادهاند، به گونهای که حداکثر افزایش دمای مینیمم در مدل‌های GFDL-CM، HadGEM2-ES، MIROC5 و MPI-ESM-MR به‌ترتیب به میزان 56/3، 73/2، 33/2 و 30/2 درجۀ سانتی‌گراد در ماه سپتامبر صورت گرفته است. همچنین، دمای ماکزیمم در سناریوی RCP4.5 در ماههای می، سپتامبر، می، سپتامبر و جولای به‌ترتیب در مدل‌های EC-EARTH، GFDL-CM، HadGEM2-ES،MIROC5 و MPI-ESM-MR حداکثر افزایش را به میزان 20/2، 82/2، 46/2، 98/1 و 38/2 درجۀ سانتی‌گراد نشان داده است. در فصل زمستان بارش به میزان 05/19 و 62/4 درصد به‌ترتیب در مدل‌های EC-EARTH و MIROC5 کاهش یافته است. نتایج بیانگر آن است که بارشهای حداکثری در تمامی مدلها به‌جز در مدل MPI-ESM-MR با میزان بارش بیشتری اتفاق خواهد افتاد. در نهایت، میتوان نتیجه گرفت که با افزایش دورۀ بازگشت مقادیر حداکثر بارش محتمل طبق دو سناریوی RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 افزایش داشته و تحت سناریوی RCP8.5 شدیدتر بوده است. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| تغییر اقلیم؛ حداکثر بارش محتمل؛ شهرستان کرمان؛ LARS – WG6 | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Forecast Comparative of Rainfall and Temperature in Kerman County Using LARS-WG6 Models | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Meysam Jafary Godeneh1؛ Ali Salajeghe2؛ Parsa Haghighi3 | ||
| 1MSc Watershed Science and Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resource, University of Tehran | ||
| 2Professor, Faculty of Natural Resource, University of Tehran | ||
| 3Msc Student of Nature Engineering, Faculty of New Sciences and Technologies, University of Tehran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Assessment of climate change in arid and semiarid areas where water crisis is taken it is a matter of special importance. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate climate change forecasting in Kerman city using general atmospheric circulation models available in LARS-WG6 software (EC-EARTH, GFDL-CM, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-MR) under scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the period (2020–2050) and estimate its maximum precipitation over the various return periods during the base period (1961–2010) and future (2020–2050) using the Gamble distribution. The results showed that all five models have the same response in increasing the minimum and maximum temperatures in the city so that the maximum increase in the minimum temperature in GFDL-CM, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-MR models is the results were 3.56, 2.73, 2.33 and 2.30 degrees Celsius, respectively. Also, the maximum temperature in the RCP4.5 scenario in May, September, May, September and July, respectively, in EC-EARTH, GFDL-CM, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-MR models, respectively, increased by 2.20, 2.82, 2.46, 1.98 and 2.38 °C, respectively. Precipitation decreased by 19.05% and 4.62% in EC-EARTH and MIROC5 models, respectively. The results show that maximum precipitation will occur with higher rainfall in all models except MPI-ESM-MR. Finally, it can be concluded that with increasing return period, the maximum amount of probable precipitation increased under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios and was more severe under RCP8.5 scenario. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Maximum Possible Precipitation, Climate Change, LARS-WG6, Kerman County | ||
| مراجع | ||
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