پیوندهای مفید
اخبار و اعلانات
آمار
| تعداد نشریات | 158 |
| تعداد شمارهها | 6,230 |
| تعداد مقالات | 67,755 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 115,097,065 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 89,849,614 |
The Effect of Exchange Rate, Oil Prices and Global Inflation Shocks on Macroeconomic Variables for the Iranian Economy in the form of a DSGE Model | ||
| Iranian Economic Review | ||
| مقاله 13، دوره 23، شماره 4، دی 2019، صفحه 1057-1083 اصل مقاله (1.16 M) | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ier.2019.73003 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| Sajad Boroumand1؛ Teymour Mohammadi* 2؛ Jamshid Pajooyan2؛ Abbas Memarnejad3 | ||
| 1Department of Economic, Science and Research branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 2Faculty of Economics, University of Allameh Tabatabae’i, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 3Department of Economics, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده | ||
| T he world economy has experienced a bulk of positive and negative shocks in crude oil prices and exchange rates over the years, and that global inflation has undergone some changes. Such shocks have affected the macroeconomic variables in the countries of the world and have challenged the economies of these countries, and have led them to take different measures to protect themselves against the devastative effects of these shocks. Accordingly, the main objective of the current study was to analyze the dynamic effects of three external shocks (global oil price shock, euro / dollar exchange rate shock and global inflation shock) as well as to investigate the appropriate monetary policy strategy for the Iranian economy, given the structural characteristics and patterns of external shocks. In so doing, we analyzed the responses of external responses to external shocks according to alternative monetary rules, including Headline Inflation Targeting (IT), Core Inflation Targeting (CIT), and Exchange Rate (ER) rule. Therefore, in this research, the goal was to determine the monetary policy rule to minimize both macroeconomic fluctuations and keep inflation at a low level. Furthermore, we strived to answer the question that whether the inflation criterion in Iran should be headline inflation, core inflation or exchange rate. To answer this question, using the DYNARE software, we estimated a multiplicative New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model based on the characteristics of Iranian economy. Our primary finding showed that core inflation rule was the best monetary rule for stabilizing both macroeconomics and inflation. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| Keywords: Monetary Policy؛ Core Inflation؛ DSGE Model. JEL Classification: E52؛ E31؛ D58 | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
Allegret, J. P., & Benkhodja, M. T. (2015). External Shocks and Monetary Policy in a Small Open Oil Economy. Journal of Policy Modeling, 37, 652-667.
Bayat, N., & Bahrami, J. (2017). Evaluating Taylor Rule and Money Growth Rate Rule in a DSGE Model for Iran. Iranian Journal of Trade Studies, 8(21), 67-102.
Brock, W. A. (1974). Money and Growth: The Case of Long run Perfect Foresight. International Economic Review, 15(3), 750-777.
Brock, W. A., & Lebaron, B. (1990). Liquidity Constraints in Production-based Asset-pricing Models. In Asymmetric Information Corporate Finance, and Investment. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Bouakez, H., Rebei, N., & Vencalachellum, D. (2008). Optimal Pass Through of Oil Prices in an Economy with Nominal Rigidities. Working Paper, 08/31, Retrieved from https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID1285503_code361712.pdf?abstractid=1285503&mirid=1.
Devereux, M., Lane, P. R., & Xu, J. (2006). Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies. The Economic Journal, 116, 478-506.
Dhawan, R., & Jeske, R. (2007). Taylor Rules with Headline Inflation: a Bad Idea. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Working Paper Series, Retrieved from https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID998578_code362125.pdf?abstractid=998578&mirid=1.
Dib, A. (2003). An Estimated Canadian DSGE Model with Nominal and Real Rigidities. Canadian Journal of Economics, 36(4),949-972.
Faraji, M., Afshari, Z., & Ebrahimi, I. (2015). Oil Price Shocks and Monetary Policy in Iran: the New Keynesian Approach. Journal of Monetary and Banking Research, 22(7), 55-76.
Jalali Naeini, A. R., & Naderian, M. A. (2016). Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in An Oil Exporting Economy: The Case of Iran. Journal of Monetary and Banking Research, 29(9), 1-21.
Ireland, P. (2004). A Method for Taking Models to the Data. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Retrieved from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188903000800.
---------- (2003). Endogenous Money or Sticky Prices? Journal of Monetary Economics, 50, 1623-1648.
Kiyotaki, N., & Wright, R. (1993). A Search –theoretic Approach to Monetary Economics. The American Economic Review, 83(1), 63-77.
Keynes, J. M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. London: Macmillan.
Leduc, S., & Sill, K. (2004). A Quantitative Analysis of Oil Price Shocks Systematic Monetary Policy and Economic Downturns. Journal of Monetary Economics, 51,781-808.
Lucas, R. J. (1976). Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique. Carnegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1, 19-46. Medina, J., & Soto, C. (2006). Copper Price, Fiscal Policy and Business Cycle in Chile Central. Bank of Chile, Research Department, Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Claudio_Soto2/publication/28208383_Copper_Price_Fiscal_Policy_and_Business_Cycle_in_Chile/links/02e7e52386d4f96651000000.pdf.
---------- (2005). Oil Shocks and Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model for a Small Open Economy. Central Bank of Chile, Working Paper, 353, Retrieved from https://www.banqueducanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/medina.pdf.
Mankiw, G., Romer, P., & Weil, D. (1992). A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2(107), 407-437.
Sidrauski, M. (1967). Rational Choice and Patterns of Growth in a Monetary Economy. The American Economic Review, 57(2),534-544.
Tavakolian, H. (2013). A New Keynesian Phillips Curve in a DSGE Model for Iran. Journal of Economic Research, 3(47), 1-22.
Tavakolian, H., & Sarem, M. (2017). DSGE Models in DYNARE. Tehran, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Retrieved from https://mbri.ac.ir/.
Tobin, J. (1977). How dead is Keynes? Economic Inquiry, 15, 459-468.
Walsh, C. (2003). Monetary Theory and Policy. Cambridge: MIT Press.
Yun, T. (1996). Nominal Price Rigidity, Money Supply Endogeneity, and Business Cycles. Journal of Monetary Economics, 37(2),345-370.
| ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 859 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 1,112 |
||