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Boroumand, Sajad, Mohammadi, Teymour, Pajooyan, Jamshid, Memarnejad, Abbas. (1398). The Effect of Exchange Rate, Oil Prices and Global Inflation Shocks on Macroeconomic Variables for the Iranian Economy in the form of a DSGE Model. , 23(4), 1057-1083. doi: 10.22059/ier.2019.73003
Sajad Boroumand; Teymour Mohammadi; Jamshid Pajooyan; Abbas Memarnejad. "The Effect of Exchange Rate, Oil Prices and Global Inflation Shocks on Macroeconomic Variables for the Iranian Economy in the form of a DSGE Model". , 23, 4, 1398, 1057-1083. doi: 10.22059/ier.2019.73003
Boroumand, Sajad, Mohammadi, Teymour, Pajooyan, Jamshid, Memarnejad, Abbas. (1398). 'The Effect of Exchange Rate, Oil Prices and Global Inflation Shocks on Macroeconomic Variables for the Iranian Economy in the form of a DSGE Model', , 23(4), pp. 1057-1083. doi: 10.22059/ier.2019.73003
Boroumand, Sajad, Mohammadi, Teymour, Pajooyan, Jamshid, Memarnejad, Abbas. The Effect of Exchange Rate, Oil Prices and Global Inflation Shocks on Macroeconomic Variables for the Iranian Economy in the form of a DSGE Model. , 1398; 23(4): 1057-1083. doi: 10.22059/ier.2019.73003

The Effect of Exchange Rate, Oil Prices and Global Inflation Shocks on Macroeconomic Variables for the Iranian Economy in the form of a DSGE Model

Iranian Economic Review
مقاله 13، دوره 23، شماره 4، دی 2019، صفحه 1057-1083    اصل مقاله (1.16 M)
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ier.2019.73003
نویسندگان
Sajad Boroumand1؛ Teymour Mohammadi* 2؛ Jamshid Pajooyan2؛ Abbas Memarnejad3
1Department of Economic, Science and Research branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2Faculty of Economics, University of Allameh Tabatabae’i, Tehran, Iran
3Department of Economics, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده
T





he world economy has experienced a bulk of positive and negative shocks in crude oil prices and exchange rates over the years, and that global inflation has undergone some changes. Such shocks have affected the macroeconomic variables in the countries of the world and have challenged the economies of these countries, and have led them to take different measures to protect themselves against the devastative effects of these shocks. Accordingly, the main objective of the current study was to analyze the dynamic effects of three external shocks (global oil price shock, euro / dollar exchange rate shock and global inflation shock) as well as to investigate the appropriate monetary policy strategy for the Iranian economy, given the structural characteristics and patterns of external shocks. In so doing, we analyzed the responses of external responses to external shocks according to alternative monetary rules, including Headline Inflation Targeting (IT), Core Inflation Targeting (CIT), and Exchange Rate (ER) rule. Therefore, in this research, the goal was to determine the monetary policy rule to minimize both macroeconomic fluctuations and keep inflation at a low level. Furthermore, we strived to answer the question that whether the inflation criterion in Iran should be headline inflation, core inflation or exchange rate. To answer this question, using the DYNARE software, we estimated a multiplicative New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model based on the characteristics of Iranian economy. Our primary finding showed that core inflation rule was the best monetary rule for stabilizing both macroeconomics and inflation.
 
کلیدواژه‌ها
Keywords: Monetary Policy؛ Core Inflation؛ DSGE Model. JEL Classification: E52؛ E31؛ D58
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