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ارزیابی اثر تغییر اقلیم و تغییر کاربری اراضی بر فرسایش خاک (مطالعۀ موردی: حوضۀ آبخیز کندران) | ||
اکوهیدرولوژی | ||
مقاله 7، دوره 6، شماره 2، تیر 1398، صفحه 353-368 اصل مقاله (1.27 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/ije.2019.274886.1038 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
فاطمه تیموری1؛ ام البنین بذرافشان* 2؛ الهام رفیعی ساردویی3 | ||
1کارشناس ارشد علوم و مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشگاه هرمزگان | ||
2استادیار، گروه مهندسی منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه هرمزگان | ||
3استادیار، گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشگاه جیرفت | ||
چکیده | ||
تغییرات جهانی اقلیم و کاربری اراضی میتواند بهشدت بر میزان فرسایش و توانایی خاک برای حفظ کشاورزی و به تبع آن، بر امنیت غذایی منطقهای یا جهانی تأثیر بگذارد. هدف از پژوهش حاضر، ارزیابی اثر تغییر اقلیم و تغییرات کاربری اراضی بر فرسایش با استفاده از مدل RUSLE است. از اینرو، تغییرات آب و هوایی براساس دو سناریوی تغییر اقلیم RCP2.6 و RCP8.5 با استفاده از مدل آماری برای دورههای 2016-2030 و 2031-2050 نسبت به دورۀ پایه (1986-2015) استفاده شدند. مدل LCM برای پیشبینی تغییرات کاربری زمین و پوشش گیاهی در حوضۀ آبخیز کندران استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد فاکتور فرسایش باران (R-factor) و عامل پوشش گیاهی (C-factor) در مدل RUSLE تحت تأثیر مستقیم تغییرات اقلیمی و نیز تغییرات کاربری اراضی و پوشش گیاهی قرار دارند. بهطوری که میزان فاکتور فرسایشپذیری از 38/76 در دورۀ پایه به 7/83 در دورۀ 2016-2030 و 3/82 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 y-1 در دورۀ 2031-2050 افزایش خواهد یافت. همچنین، فاکتور پوشش گیاهی از 225/0 در دورۀ پایه به 43/0 در دورۀ 2016-2030 و 56/0 در 2031-2050 افزایش مییابد. میانگین فرسایش خاک در دورۀ پایه 8/9 (تن در هکتار در سال) بود که طی دو دهۀ آینده (2016-2030) با استفاده از دو سناریوی بررسیشده، به طور متوسط 16 درصد (37/11) و طی پنج دهۀ آینده 20 درصد (3/10) بر میزان فرسایش افزوده میشود. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
تغییرات اقلیمی؛ تغییر پوشش زمین؛ مدل LCM؛ مدل RUSLE؛ مدل SDSM | ||
مراجع | ||
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