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مدلسازی مکانی-زمانی کیفیت محیطزیست شهری | ||
پژوهشهای جغرافیای انسانی | ||
مقاله 15، دوره 51، شماره 1، فروردین 1398، صفحه 229-247 اصل مقاله (2.05 M) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22059/jhgr.2018.249566.1007615 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
محمد جوانبخت1؛ مجید کیاورز مقدم2؛ نجمه نیسانی سامانی2؛ لعبت زبردست3؛ علی درویشی بلورانی2 | ||
1کارشناس ارشد سنجشازدور و سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی دانشگاه تهران | ||
2استادیار سنجشازدور و سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی دانشگاه تهران | ||
3استادیار برنامهریزی و مدیریت محیطزیست دانشگاه تهران | ||
چکیده | ||
کیفیت محیطزیست شهری معیار سنجش و اندازهگیری درجة مناسببودن محیطزیست انسان است. درواقع میزان توان محیط برای شکلگیری نیازهای افراد جامعه و پاسخگویی به آن محسوب میِشود و از عوامل مختلفی تأثیر میپذیرد. با توجه به تغییرات شاخصهای محیطی در مناطق شهری، هدف اصلی این پژوهش مدلسازی تغییرات مکانی-زمانی کیفیت محیطزیست شهری است. بهمنظور مدلسازی هریک از شاخصها از دادههای میدانی مکانمبنا و تصاویر ماهوارهای استفاده شد. شاخصها شامل دو بعد طبیعی و انسانساخت است. برای تلفیق شاخصها و مدلسازی کیفیت محیطزیست شهری با توجه به ماهیت مباحث کیفی و محیطی که با عدم قطعیت همراه است، از منطق فازی استفاده شد. در شهر تهران بهدلیل تراکم بالای جمعیت و فعالیت، محیطزیست شهری اهمیت زیادی دارد. بدینمنظور مناطق 3، 6 و 11 شهر تهران انتخاب شدند. این مناطق در امتداد شمالی-جنوبی شهر تهران قرار دارند. نتایج نشان میدهد تغییرات کیفیت محیطزیست شهری در منطقة موردمطالعه روندی شمالی-جنوبی دارد. کیفیت محیطزیست شهری نیز از شمال به جنوب کاهش مییابد. از نظر تغییرات زمانی در دو فصل بهار و تابستان در مقایسه با دو فصل پاییز و زمستان کیفیت محیطزیست شهری وضعیت بهتری دارد؛ بنابراین تابعی از زمان و مکان محسوب میشود. نتایج تحلیل حساسیت نشان میدهد تأثیر تغییر ورودیها بر نتیجة مدل در همه متغیرها بین 2 تا 17 درصد است. نتایج مدلسازی نیز از یک یا چند متغیر خاص تأثیر نمیپذیرد؛ بنابراین میتوان نتیجه گرفت نتایج مدلسازی قابلاعتماد است. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
تحلیل حساسیت؛ ضریب همبستگی؛ کیفیت محیطزیست شهری؛ مدلسازی؛ منطق فازی | ||
مراجع | ||
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